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CrazyC83
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#21 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:58 pm

No surprise. I wasn't expecting any upgrade there. There is no proof right now of any tropical storm-force winds.
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#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:47 pm

957
WTNT21 KNHC 102046
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
2100Z SAT JUN 10 2006

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 85.7W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 85.7W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.2N 86.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.1N 84.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.5N 79.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 37.5N 71.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 47.5N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 85.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#23 Postby Brent » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:48 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS IN WESTERN
CUBA...
...AIR FORCE PLANE STILL INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE ELONGATED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...WEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. A SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N...85.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#24 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:50 pm

No suprise at all. I wouldn't be suprised if this weakened to 30 mph or was downgraded to T-Wave next advisory.
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#25 Postby Brent » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:51 pm

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#26 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:52 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:No suprise at all. I wouldn't be suprised if this weakened to 30 mph or was downgraded to T-Wave next advisory.


It's so hard to tell with this...the conditions are ripe for a quick regeneration, but it wouldn't take much to lose the closed circulation.

If it degenerates into a wave, I think it will regain its circulation pretty quickly.
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#27 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:52 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:No suprise at all. I wouldn't be suprised if this weakened to 30 mph or was downgraded to T-Wave next advisory.


I would. It's still got plenty of convection, and the NHC likes to wait and see. Have a TC exist for 12 hours looks a little on the jumpy side, something they try to avoid. It'll still be around tomorrow morning, trust me.
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#28 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:53 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:No suprise at all. I wouldn't be suprised if this weakened to 30 mph or was downgraded to T-Wave next advisory.
well the NHC thinks that this will become a TS overnight.
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#29 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:54 pm

Brent wrote:http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200601_cone_5day.png

Image
this is from the 2pm advisory (11am track).
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#30 Postby Brent » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:55 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Brent wrote:http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200601_cone_5day.png

Image
this is from the 2pm advisory (11am track).


:x

Well it should update shortly.
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#31 Postby NCHurricane » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:56 pm

Image
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#32 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:57 pm

TD1 is fighting hard to stay alive.
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#33 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:58 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:No suprise at all. I wouldn't be suprised if this weakened to 30 mph or was downgraded to T-Wave next advisory.
well the NHC thinks that this will become a TS overnight.


The NHC has been wrong before.
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#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:00 pm

WTNT41 KNHC 102059
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE
CIRCULATION. A SERIES OF SMALL VORTICES HAVE ALL DAY BEEN ROTATING
ABOUT THE MEAN CENTER OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION THAT IS EXTREMELY
ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVEN GIVEN DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM... WHERE TO SPECIFY A CIRCULATION CENTER IS VERY
CHALLENGING. RECON FOUND A WIND SHIFT AND A BROAD PRESSURE MINIMUM
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT ABOUT 18Z... BUT THAT DID NOT QUALIFY AS
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF A VORTEX. THE AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION TO HELP DETERMINE WHERE THE
CENTER IS LOCATED. FOR NOW I HAVE PLACED THE ADVISORY POSITION AT
ABOUT THE CENTROID OF THE BROAD CLOUD CIRCULATION SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY... WHICH RESULTS IN A NET MOTION OF ABOUT 5 KT TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED CENTER.
IN ADDITION TO THE INTERNAL DISORGANIZATION... THE DEPRESSION IS
BATTLING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND DRY AIR OVER THE GULF
THAT IMPINGING ON WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST 30 KT REMAINS A GOOD
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ARE BOTH HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... DUE TO
THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SYSTEM AND SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN
A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT ITS STAY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... THEY
DISAGREE GREATLY ON THE TIMING. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE
CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... OR BASICALLY AN AVERAGE OF THE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT
45 KT OVER THE GULF... LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES... TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT POOR ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 21.8N 85.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 23.2N 86.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.0N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.5N 86.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 28.1N 84.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 79.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 14/1800Z 37.5N 71.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/1800Z 47.5N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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#35 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:10 pm

Surface pressures near Cancun are dropping this afternoon down to 1004 MB. Perhaps the whole broad surface trough is shifting west a little? The slower forward speed is not good news if that allows time for the shear to relax.
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#36 Postby StormScanWx » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:15 pm

cycloneye,

My guess is you aren't getting this info from the NHC website?

Where do you get the latest info so quickly?
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#37 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:18 pm

StormScanWx wrote:cycloneye,

My guess is you aren't getting this info from the NHC website?

Where do you get the latest info so quickly?


I like wxunderground as they are rapid with the information but this site is better as they are more rapid.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/tropical.html
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#38 Postby StormScanWx » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:
StormScanWx wrote:cycloneye,

My guess is you aren't getting this info from the NHC website?

Where do you get the latest info so quickly?


I like wxunderground as they are rapid with the information but this site is better as they are more rapid.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/tropical.html


Thanks! :)
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#39 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:11 pm

The Recon reports of FL 45 knot winds could mean a special advisory at any time...
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#40 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The Recon reports of FL 45 knot winds could mean a special advisory at any time...


You could be right. I think however they need a fix on the "true" center for a model initialization. This thing is elongated with multiple vortices.
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