TS Alberto Recon Reports

Derek Ortt · #301 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:15 pm

1. we need a well defined center

2. 33.75KT is LESS than the required 34KT, by .25KT

#302 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:15 pm

I'm looking at the satellites and I feel there is enough confidence to increase it to a tropical storm, although I'd be conservative and set the surface intensity at 35 knots (40 mph).

I think it is worthy of a special advisory and I wouldn't be surprised to see one at 7:00 pm EDT (6:00 pm CDT).

#303 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:16 pm

not yet.....but getting close - later tonight maybe

#304 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:16 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm looking at the satellites and I feel there is enough confidence to increase it to a tropical storm, although I'd be conservative and set the surface intensity at 35 knots (40 mph).

I think it is worthy of a special advisory and I wouldn't be surprised to see one at 7:00 pm EDT (6:00 pm CDT).

I think a TS this soon would scare some people - the NHC will be conservative IMHO

#305 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:16 pm

boca_chris wrote:not yet.....but getting close - later tonight maybe

If a 46 on Recon comes out, we can safely say it is a TS for sure.

CHRISTY · #306 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:17 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:1. we need a well defined center

2. 33.75KT is LESS than the required 34KT, by .25KT

which derek right now we dont have a well defined LLC.they will probably leave it as a TD.

MiamiensisWx · #307 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:18 pm

Latest RECON reports...

627
SXXX50 KNHC 102213
AF301 01AAA INVEST HDOB 40 KNHC
2206 2332N 08557W 00221 5052 092 036 236 228 036 00177 0000000000
2206. 2332N 08559W 00220 5052 091 036 236 228 036 00176 0000000000
2207 2332N 08601W 00219 5052 091 034 236 226 035 00175 0000000000
2207. 2332N 08603W 00221 5052 089 035 236 226 036 00177 0000000000
2208 2332N 08605W 00220 5051 088 034 240 224 035 00177 0000000000
2208. 2332N 08607W 00220 5051 085 032 240 224 035 00178 0000000000
2209 2332N 08609W 00220 5051 084 031 240 224 033 00177 0000000000
2209. 2332N 08611W 00220 5050 083 033 240 222 034 00178 0000000000
2210 2332N 08613W 00220 5050 081 032 240 224 033 00179 0000000000
2210. 2332N 08615W 00220 5050 077 032 238 224 033 00178 0000000000
2211 2331N 08617W 00221 5049 076 032 240 224 033 00180 0000000000
2211. 2331N 08619W 00220 5049 072 028 238 228 029 00179 0000000000
2212 2331N 08620W 00220 5049 073 031 234 228 032 00179 0000000000
2212. 2331N 08622W 00220 5050 072 032 234 230 032 00178 0000000000
2213 2331N 08624W 00220 5050 069 032 240 224 033 00178 0000000000
2213. 2331N 08626W 00220 5050 069 032 240 222 032 00179 0000000000
2214 2331N 08628W 00220 5049 066 030 240 226 031 00179 0000000000
2214. 2331N 08630W 00220 5050 067 030 240 226 030 00179 0000000000
2215 2331N 08632W 00220 5049 069 031 240 226 032 00179 0000000000
2215. 2331N 08634W 00220 5049 067 030 242 228 031 00180 0000000000

#308 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:18 pm

whoops, didn't see someone else post it.

WXBUFFJIM · #309 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:18 pm

By later tonight as convection maxes out in the tropics, we might see enough of a pressure fall and strong enough flight level winds to upgrade this to a tropical storm. Right now I think it's a pretty safe bet this system remains a tropical depression. Will keep a close eye on this throughout the evening.

It's looking to be a nice rain maker for the Florida Peninsula, very good news indeed.

Jim

flashflood · #310 Postby **flashflood** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:20 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm looking at the satellites and I feel there is enough confidence to increase it to a tropical storm, although I'd be conservative and set the surface intensity at 35 knots (40 mph).

I think it is worthy of a special advisory and I wouldn't be surprised to see one at 7:00 pm EDT (6:00 pm CDT).

Which satellites do you look at. The one I see shows a sheared system struggling with dry air, looks quite disorganized actually, well at least for now.

#311 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:21 pm

flashflood wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm looking at the satellites and I feel there is enough confidence to increase it to a tropical storm, although I'd be conservative and set the surface intensity at 35 knots (40 mph).

I think it is worthy of a special advisory and I wouldn't be surprised to see one at 7:00 pm EDT (6:00 pm CDT).

Which satellites do you look at. The one I see shows a sheared system struggling with dry air, looks quite disorganized actually, well at least for now.

The right side looks filled with convection...the left side is brutally sheared, like Arlene...

WindRunner · #312 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:28 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 102223
AF301 01AAA INVEST HDOB 41 KNHC
2216 2331N 08636W 00219 5049 065 030 246 226 031 00178 0000000000
2216. 2331N 08638W 00221 5048 062 028 244 226 029 00182 0000000000
2217 2331N 08640W 00219 5048 060 027 242 228 028 00179 0000000000
2217. 2331N 08642W 00220 5047 061 027 242 226 027 00181 0000000000
2218 2331N 08643W 00220 5047 063 027 244 224 027 00182 0000000000
2218. 2331N 08645W 00221 5047 062 026 246 224 027 00182 0000000000
2219 2331N 08647W 00289 5043 063 027 238 222 027 00255 0000000000
2219. 2330N 08649W 00662 5023 065 028 210 204 030 00657 0000000000
2220 2330N 08651W 01086 0005 059 026 182 180 028 01116 0000000000
2220. 2330N 08653W 01457 0026 067 026 166 154 027 01515 0000000000
2221 2330N 08656W 01825 0048 066 021 148 130 023 01906 0000000000
2221. 2330N 08658W 02160 0067 058 024 134 114 026 02262 0000000000
2222 2330N 08700W 02436 0088 063 031 122 088 033 02562 0000000000
2222. 2332N 08701W 02723 0102 069 030 108 076 033 02863 0000000000
2223 2334N 08701W 02997 0121 071 028 094 064 029 03157 0000000000
2223. 2335N 08702W 03261 0143 072 026 082 042 027 03444 0000000000
2224 2337N 08703W 03531 0163 068 028 066 014 029 03735 0000000000
2224. 2339N 08704W 03783 0180 068 030 050 001 033 04004 0000000000
2225 2341N 08704W 04027 0198 068 035 038 029 036 04267 0000000000
2225. 2343N 08705W 04236 0194 072 035 026 021 036 04492 0000000000

Looks like they are picking up again at the end.

clfenwi · #313 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:29 pm

Storm Name: INVEST (AAL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF301
Observation Number: 19
Time: 2149Z
Latitude: 23.3°N
Longitude: 85.2°W
#NAME?
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 700 feet
Flight level wind: E (90°) @ 45 mph
Temperature: 72°F
Dewpoint: 72°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1006 mb
Surface Wind: E (100°) @ 46 mph
Remarks: None

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: INVEST (AAL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF301
Observation Number: 20
Time: 2157Z
Latitude: 23.6°N
Longitude: 85.4°W
#NAME?
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 700 feet
Flight level wind: E (100°) @ 46 mph
Temperature: 73°F
Dewpoint: 73°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1006 mb
Surface Wind: E (110°) @ 46 mph
Remarks: None

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: INVEST (AAL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF301
Observation Number: 21
Time: 2217Z
Latitude: 23.5°N
Longitude: 86.7°W
#NAME?
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 700 feet
Flight level wind: ENE (60°) @ 30 mph
Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 73°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1007 mb
Surface Wind: NE (60°) @ 29 mph
Remarks: None

#314 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:30 pm

Notice also that most of the pressure estimates are consistently near 1002 mb.

My estimate on the intensity right now: 40 mph (35 kt) / 1002 mb

Thunder44 · #315 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:32 pm

I like to see a vortex message. I guess that means they still haven't found a center.

#316 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:32 pm

They are heading back then as they just climbed from 200m to 4km.

#317 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:34 pm

Thunder44 wrote:I like to see a vortex message. I guess that means they still haven't found a center.

Or maybe they have found too many!!!

Aquawind · #318 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:34 pm

Thanks for your great input Peter!

MiamiensisWx · #319 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:39 pm

Latest RECON message...

042
SXXX50 KNHC 102233
AF301 01AAA INVEST HDOB 42 KNHC
2226 2344N 08706W 04451 0200 071 035 012 033 036 04723 0000000000
2226. 2346N 08707W 04651 0217 074 034 001 045 035 04941 0000000000
2227 2348N 08708W 04842 0243 077 034 017 051 034 05157 0000000000
2227. 2350N 08708W 05069 0258 077 036 029 057 036 05401 0000000000
2228 2352N 08709W 05296 0274 077 033 045 063 034 05645 0000000000
2228. 2354N 08710W 05472 0287 077 032 055 103 033 05834 0000000000
2229 2356N 08711W 05641 0299 078 030 065 119 031 06016 0000000000
2229. 2358N 08712W 05796 0311 081 025 071 121 026 06183 0000000000
2230 2400N 08712W 05944 0321 082 025 077 133 026 06342 0000000000
2230. 2402N 08713W 06106 0335 077 023 087 165 024 06519 0000000000
2231 2404N 08714W 06145 0340 077 024 091 197 025 06562 0000000000
2231. 2406N 08715W 06109 0341 079 027 091 179 028 06527 0000000000
2232 2408N 08716W 06097 0344 081 029 089 171 030 06518 0000000000
2232. 2411N 08717W 06098 0347 082 031 089 191 032 06522 0000000000
2233 2413N 08718W 06096 0348 079 032 085 199 033 06521 0000000000
2233. 2416N 08719W 06096 0348 081 032 091 171 034 06522 0000000000
2234 2418N 08720W 06096 0350 084 034 095 163 035 06523 0000000000
2234. 2421N 08721W 06096 0349 084 035 091 175 036 06522 0000000000
2235 2423N 08722W 06095 0349 085 038 095 171 038 06521 0000000000
2235. 2426N 08724W 06095 0350 088 038 093 183 039 06522 0000000000

#320 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:39 pm

Also thanks to WindRunner,StormsAhead and clfenwi for helping us with the decoding of the data.

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