Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1
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- cycloneye
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Tropical Storm Ernesto
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Jun 11, 2006 7:36 am, edited 5 times in total.
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- Tropical Depression
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18Z GFDL places a CAT 1 Hurricane (80 mph) on the nature coast near Crystal River around 2 PM Monday. This is about 12 hrs faster than the GFS. I think its over doing it (I hope) on the intensity. I can't see with the shear that this storm will get much past a weak to moderate TS.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
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CAT 1?? I'll go out on a limb and say not gonna happen with TD1. Unless something really changes. But hey I said the samething about several 2005 storms!!
Last edited by 28_Storms on Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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28_Storms wrote:CAT 1?? How is that possible?
i really doupt this will reach cat 1.TD 1 has about a 12-24 hour window to intensify because once it reaches the norhtern gulf it will begin to run into increasing shear.
Last edited by CHRISTY on Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Cape Verde
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As long as the storm is in a high shear environment, it can't develop very well. I'm no good at predicting shear and whether it will continue to plague this storm.
Fortunately, we have a lot of experts here who can.
But I can note that the storm has managed to strengthen slightly in spite of the shear which is remarkable by itself. As long as the NHC continues to forecast that it will reach or maintain tropical storm status as it approaches Florida, that's good enough for me. In the past I've disagreed with them far more about projected path than projected intensity. They have a pretty good handle on that.
Fortunately, we have a lot of experts here who can.
But I can note that the storm has managed to strengthen slightly in spite of the shear which is remarkable by itself. As long as the NHC continues to forecast that it will reach or maintain tropical storm status as it approaches Florida, that's good enough for me. In the past I've disagreed with them far more about projected path than projected intensity. They have a pretty good handle on that.
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Cape Verde wrote:As long as the storm is in a high shear environment, it can't develop very well. I'm no good at predicting shear and whether it will continue to plague this storm.
Fortunately, we have a lot of experts here who can.
But I can note that the storm has managed to strengthen slightly in spite of the shear which is remarkable by itself. As long as the NHC continues to forecast that it will reach or maintain tropical storm status as it approaches Florida, that's good enough for me. In the past I've disagreed with them far more about projected path than projected intensity. They have a pretty good handle on that.
actually the strong wind the hurricane found were probably because of the tight pressure graidiant.think its spelled that way...lil tired.

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- Ivanhater
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jrod wrote:Im seeing a possible new LLC at 20N 85W. South of the Yucantan channel and appears to moving just E of due North. In the last 2 or 3 frames there appears to be some convection trying to fire around it. This could be the center we all have been looking for.
looks to be in the mid levels...
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