Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[skysummit]

The further west it can go, the better chance it'll have. If it starts going north right now, it'll continue to get torn apart.

[28_Storms]

Christy is that Wilma in your avatar?

[ALhurricane]

I see some dry air out there but there is plenty of moisture in the GOM to allow some further strengthening of this system.

The GOM is actually bone dry. One look at the water vapor which somebody already posted, will tell you all that you need to know. There is very little moisture to work with.

Shear plus bone dry air means this little TD is going to struggle to survive.

[28_Storms]

TD1 is barely holding on right now with the SW shear.

[floridahurricaneguy]

You guys think this wont end up surviving or will it suprise us?

[CHRISTY]

Christy is that Wilma in your avatar?

yes it is.

[CHRISTY]

I see some dry air out there but there is plenty of moisture in the GOM to allow some further strengthening of this system.

The GOM is actually bone dry. One look at the water vapor which somebody already posted, will tell you all that you need to know. There is very little moisture to work with.

Shear plus bone dry air means this little TD is going to struggle to survive.

Exactly what ive been saying...ALhurricane

[jabber]

I agree... me thinks this is good as it gets... Its June all....

I see some dry air out there but there is plenty of moisture in the GOM to allow some further strengthening of this system.

The GOM is actually bone dry. One look at the water vapor which somebody already posted, will tell you all that you need to know. There is very little moisture to work with.

Shear plus bone dry air means this little TD is going to struggle to survive.

[zoeyann]

I think it will get a name, but it will be a weak TS. I am surprised that it has made it this far with the dry air and shear. This is going to be a good rainmaker for someone though I just hope it ends up bringing rain to a droughted area that could use it.

[NONAME]

The way this look reminds me of Arlene last year with convection just to the east of her.

[Nimbus]

jrod I think you are seeing one of the many naked surface level vortices that have been spitting out from under the convection all day. This one does seem to be near the center of surface circulation at the moment, but unless we see some solid convection over that spot it will be gone. coordinates are about 21N 87W.

[benny]

Well this is close to Alberto. the 45 kt winds from recon are suggestive and typically the reduction is about .8 from 1500 ft. In addition winds from the new dry tortugas station:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/5day2/PLSF1_5day.cwind

show 33 kt sustained for 10 minutes at an unknown elevation... but in general everything says it is very close to weak TS. Satellite is nasty but it doesn't take much to beecome a TS.

[CHRISTY]

Well this is close to Alberto. the 45 kt winds from recon are suggestive and typically the reduction is about .8 from 1500 ft. In addition winds from the new dry tortugas station:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/5day2/PLSF1_5day.cwind

show 33 kt sustained for 10 minutes at an unknown elevation... but in general everything says it is very close to weak TS. Satellite is nasty but it doesn't take much to beecome a TS.

benny dont u think those winds they found were because of the pressure gradiant.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (AL012006) ON 20060611 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060611 0000 060611 1200 060612 0000 060612 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 86.1W 25.0N 86.8W 26.9N 86.4W 28.3N 84.8W
BAMM 23.0N 86.1W 24.6N 87.1W 25.9N 87.4W 26.5N 87.1W
A98E 23.0N 86.1W 24.8N 86.6W 26.2N 86.3W 27.3N 85.0W
LBAR 23.0N 86.1W 25.1N 86.7W 27.1N 86.4W 28.7N 84.7W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 38KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060613 0000 060614 0000 060615 0000 060616 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.6N 82.2W 33.9N 75.9W 42.1N 68.3W 50.2N 58.4W
BAMM 26.4N 85.7W 26.6N 80.4W 30.2N 73.2W 35.9N 64.6W
A98E 28.2N 83.1W 31.5N 77.4W 38.0N 67.4W 48.5N 49.9W
LBAR 30.1N 81.6W 35.0N 72.2W 44.6N 59.3W 40.6N 61.0W
SHIP 42KTS 49KTS 57KTS 54KTS
DSHP 36KTS 41KTS 49KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 86.1W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 85.3W DIRM12 = 340DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 85.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


According to the 00:00z run of the tropical models it's moving a little more faster 11 kts and still is a TD.

[CrazyC83]

This quote from the TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...
PARTICULARLY FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO MATANZAS INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS NEAR
21.8N 85.7W AT 10/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF CABO SAN
ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION SLOWED DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND GUSTY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN
HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE
DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF
5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2046.shtml?

[jrod]

jrod I think you are seeing one of the many naked surface level vortices that have been spitting out from under the convection all day. This one does seem to be near the center of surface circulation at the moment, but unless we see some solid convection over that spot it will be gone. coordinates are about 21N 87W.

I know, I've seen a few throughout the day, this one is in an area where it might be a little more favorable IMO. Look at the floater if you haven't seen it, the last frames before dark show it well.

[benny]

Well this is close to Alberto. the 45 kt winds from recon are suggestive and typically the reduction is about .8 from 1500 ft. In addition winds from the new dry tortugas station:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/5day2/PLSF1_5day.cwind

show 33 kt sustained for 10 minutes at an unknown elevation... but in general everything says it is very close to weak TS. Satellite is nasty but it doesn't take much to beecome a TS.

benny dont u think those winds they found were because of the pressure gradiant.

I don't understand your question. Pressure gradient is the main force involved in producing wind. This isn't a situation where we are dealing with an eyewall and a close radius of maximum winds. It is a sloppy system that is poorly organized but is producing "near" tropical storm force winds on the east side. There is the argument of how much is due to some sort of large-scale forcing versus storm-scale.. but just a couple hundred miles from the center is not that far.

[T-man]

Ok, I guess I'm misreading the vapor loops. I thought that if an area was black, that would be bone dry, and then anything not black would signify some moisture. Shows how much I have to learn about it... Anyways the high pressure and subsidence over most of the gulf is contributing to the dryness? just askin'

[rockyman]

T-man...you are correct...the Gulf airmass has modified somewhat and is not as "bone dry" as it was yesterday.

[CHRISTY]

GFDL INTENSITY FORCAST


SHIP INTENSITY FORCAST


DSHP INTENSITY FORCAST