Conditions to expect over SE FL

[boca]

Overcast with widely scattered showers with SE winds around 15 mph.

[gatorcane]

Overcast with widely scattered showers with SE winds around 15 mph.

Tornado watches with feederbands producing wind gusts to 25-30mph. Up to 2-4 inches of rain west sections of our region. Worse conditions in SW Florida and along the West Central Florida coast..

You have to remember Boca that there will be a "trail" of strong thunderstorms in the "comma" part of thi system that will swing through South Florida as this system gets shunted NE through central Florida.

[Aquawind]

The official forecast..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... L&site=MFL

discussion..

000
FXUS62 KMFL 101837
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
237 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WELL...THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMING ACTIVE AS T.D. ONE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A FAIRLY BROAD
CENTER WITH SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING
AROUND THIS CENTER. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND SO IS MOST OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLY
WEATHER. NHC AND GFS FORECAST ARE VERY CLOSE WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING NNW THEN NE AND MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST
RAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFTEN
BEHAVE ERRATICALLY AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE
OUR CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINS. AS IT IS NOW...GFS AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN. THIS AMOUNT COULD INCREASE OR DECREASE DEPENDING THE
FINAL TRACK AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF T.D. ONE.

THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BE PICK UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT EXITS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND QUICKLY CHANGES INTO EXTRATROPICAL WITH LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SYSTEM TO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
T.D. ONE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST NHC
ADVISORIES AND LOCAL FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SFC WINDS OVER GULF
WATERS WELL BELOW 34 KNOTS HOWEVER...WINDS COULD EASILY GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN SQUALLS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 85 77 84 / 20 80 70 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 85 76 83 / 20 90 70 70
MIAMI 79 85 75 84 / 30 90 70 70
NAPLES 76 85 75 83 / 30 90 70 70

[gatorcane]

wow got my forecast right without even looking at this official forecast!

[Aquawind]

Nobody is right until it verifies.. all forecasts can bust..

But yea if they bust so do you.. no surprise...roughly speaking.

[gatorcane]

Nobody is right until it verifies.. all forecasts can bust..

But yea if they bust so do you.. no surprise...roughly speaking.

Yep Paul you could be right!!

[Scorpion]

Expect nothing to occur here.

[CHRISTY]

Nobody is right until it verifies.. all forecasts can bust..

But yea if they bust so do you.. no surprise...roughly speaking.

Yep Paul you could be right!!

boca i posted the rainfall forcast for florida in the coming days in the other southflorida thread.

[boca]

thanks christy

[boca]

Unless things change with this sytem I don't expect that much rain at all on the lower SE coast.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[shaggy]

dont see this system as much more than a rain maker but it could always spin up tornadoes in any storms it sends yalls way.It forcast to skirt the coast up here but no real weather from it to speak of in our forcast other than showers.Typical June system as far as i can tell!!!!

[fci]

Boca, I agree that we will hardly see any rain here in SE Fla.
Usually when these systems are off the west coast we get a few quick shots of rain, nothing much.
Unless they cross the Soputhern Peninsula, we miss it to the west of us.
This looks like one of those althought the convection is shunted so far east we might get clipped, but I doubt it.
Even when Charley roared in to the SW coast, we did not get any rain here in PBC.

[boca]

As of this morning I still don't see us getting anything other than a few sprinkles out of this system. Kind of what happened when Charley hit north of Ft Myers.

[jlauderdal]

As of this morning I still don't see us getting anything other than a few sprinkles out of this system. Kind of what happened when Charley hit north of Ft Myers.

we had a t-storm roll through fort laud around 730. we will try and get one another 15 miles north for you later. looks like a rainy day, nothing major, good day to sit in and watch WC games. Holland looking strong in the first half offensively, serbia have no ideas on offense.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Earlier a feeder band brought gusts to 48mph in Key west!

[wzrgirl1]

looking outside right now we have some very fast moving stratus clouds with a light drizzle going on

[feederband]

Earlier a feeder band brought gusts to 48mph in Key west!

I won't be so nice next time...

[StJoe]

looking outside right now we have some very fast moving stratus clouds with a light drizzle going on

Same situation up in Wellington, although the wind is starting to pick up some.

[Bgator]

Earlier a feeder band brought gusts to 48mph in Key west!

I won't be so nice next time...

Hahahahahaha...

[Decomdoug]

In Port St. Lucie Low overcast clouds, Wind SE @10 - Barometer steady @ 29.97 and still no rain.