Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[feederband]

Looks like the LLC is really running away from the convection:



Visible:



If this continues, I imagine the last advisory will come sometime today.

Still pretty close to track...Still a Florida hit at Tropical strom strenght...IMO

[curtadams]

The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced this thing is splitting in two. The squalls are moving NNE into Florida with no LLC. The LLC is moving west into a region of high shear and very dry air in the central Gulf. By Wednesday, upper winds over the remnant swirl in the mid Gulf may be 50-70 kts from the west. Looking doubtful this will ever be a TS.

Several of the models over the past few days predicted that TD1 would split into 2 storms (presumable a LLC and MLC, from the looks of it). All then send the east storm over FL. The west storm either follows the east storm or pretty much dies in the Gulf.

[dixiebreeze]

I think it will wrap before the day is over.

[Coredesat]

No matter where this thing goes, it's still got high mid-level shear to deal with:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

[curtadams]

Still pretty close to track...Still a Florida hit at Tropical strom strenght...IMO

No - it's way off track. Run a loop with the trop pts on. It was supposed to move NNE over the past few hours but it moved W and now almost S! And the LLC is so detached from the convection you can track it on enhanced IR.

[skysummit]

The more and more I look at it this morning, the more I believe we'll never see Alberto out of this mess. You can tell he would like to get his act together, but just can't. Poor thing....I almost feel sorry for it

[no advance]

Looks like a td to me. In fact maybe a borderline ts. Did not someone post Joe B opinion this system might be out in the gulf throughout the week? Seems like it is moving WNW since yesterday. Pray for rain and Ill pray for surf. Have a nice day everyone

[Coredesat]

Bone dry all around the depression:

[ronjon]

I don't think the LLC will separate off and meander to the western GOM. It was drifting off to the west earlier but now seems to be stationary. The LLC still looks broad and elongated with a SW-NE orientation. It is clear that dry air has entrained into the LLC and it looks like a hybrid storm now (i.e. subtropical). The trof that is predicted to steer this thing is starting to dig into central TX. Already, flow is westerly along the northern gulf coast. Of course, I could be completely wrong. These weak systems are sometimes highly unpredictable.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

[Aquawind]

I almost feel sorry for it

Thanks this woke me up!

[skysummit]

I almost feel sorry for it

Thanks this woke me up!

LOL....thanks You know I'm just joking! It's just that he's trying so hard! It's like the little engine that couldn't.

[jabber]

I think the NHC will have one last advisory on this TD. Shear and dry air are not could for nanked swirls.

[feederband]

Still pretty close to track...Still a Florida hit at Tropical strom strenght...IMO

No - it's way off track. Run a loop with the trop pts on. It was supposed to move NNE over the past few hours but it moved W and now almost S! And the LLC is so detached from the convection you can track it on enhanced IR.

I don't see what you see...Its heading north right toward the next trop pt..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[O Town]

I see the same thing feeder. Seems to be real close to on track to me.

[cycloneye]

11/1145 UTC 23.6N 87.2W T2.0/2.0 01L -- Atlantic Ocean


Very interesting that SSD sat estimates are up.

[HURAKAN]

[skysummit]

11/1145 UTC 23.6N 87.2W T2.0/2.0 01L -- Atlantic Ocean


Very interesting that SSD sat estimates are up.

LOL....are we looking at the right system?

[HURAKAN]

Station 42003 - E GULF 260 nm South of Panama City, FL
26.07 N 85.94 W

Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts

[Aquawind]

It's all majic...LOL Pressure down and no convection...

Crazy Talk Alrighty..

[brunota2003]

yes it is looking at TD 1...dead on...hmmm...wonder why they are up?