Tropical Storm Alberto

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rockyman
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#501 Postby rockyman » Sun Jun 11, 2006 8:58 am

System is now at the longitude of Mobile/Gulf shores...about 1.5 degrees further west than was forecast at 5pm yesterday.
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StJoe
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#502 Postby StJoe » Sun Jun 11, 2006 8:58 am

skysummit wrote:
wzrgirl1 wrote:I noticed some of the models have it stalling and doing some weird things in a couple of days.................

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html


Yea...they're doing some wierd things now. Numerous models have him stalling. It's going to be a tough decision at the NHC as to whether to move the track or not.

Image


IMHO: if it stalls like the models are showing, i think it will head straight into SW Florida, with the shearing blasting it from the NW side.
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#503 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 8:59 am

skysummit wrote:
wzrgirl1 wrote:I noticed some of the models have it stalling and doing some weird things in a couple of days.................

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html


Yea...they're doing some wierd things now. Numerous models have him stalling. It's going to be a tough decision at the NHC as to whether to move the track or not.

Image
The NHC said in the 5am discussion that they may have to completely change their track if this westward trend continues.
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#504 Postby skysummit » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:01 am

StJoe wrote:
skysummit wrote:
wzrgirl1 wrote:I noticed some of the models have it stalling and doing some weird things in a couple of days.................

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html


Yea...they're doing some wierd things now. Numerous models have him stalling. It's going to be a tough decision at the NHC as to whether to move the track or not.

Image


IMHO: if it stalls like the models are showing, i think it will head straight into SW Florida, with the shearing blasting it from the NW side.


The shear won't stear this system. The LLC is being pushed by the lower llevels.
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#505 Postby Bgator » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:03 am

skysummit wrote:
StJoe wrote:
skysummit wrote:
wzrgirl1 wrote:I noticed some of the models have it stalling and doing some weird things in a couple of days.................

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html


Yea...they're doing some wierd things now. Numerous models have him stalling. It's going to be a tough decision at the NHC as to whether to move the track or not.

Image


IMHO: if it stalls like the models are showing, i think it will head straight into SW Florida, with the shearing blasting it from the NW side.


The shear won't stear this system. The LLC is being pushed by the lower llevels.



What happens if the system stalls, witll it go more south due to the trough picking it up more sout, it is far enough north for the trought o pick it up when it gets here...
Last edited by Bgator on Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CHRISTY

#506 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:12 am

Guys we now have 2005-2006 with june systens!!!its been a while last time this happened was 1996-1997.i really hope this is not a sign of things to come this year.i will say this... 2006 has started the same 2005 did.we will see what happens in the coming months. chrisy :wink:
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#507 Postby ronjon » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:14 am

Checking the last 3-4 hrs of SAT loops, the LLC is essentially stationary. Its drifting around without a definite path. Be interesting to see what NHC does at the 11 AM advisory.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
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#508 Postby 28_Storms » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:16 am

Climatogy says one can expect a storm in June every other year on average. But with the conditions very similar to 2005 it looks to be another very busy and long year.
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#509 Postby 28_Storms » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:17 am

I agree ronjon.
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#510 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:17 am

They *NHC* clearly hinted at the possible scenarios in the 5am disco.
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wzrgirl1
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#511 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:18 am

What does a 50 kt. flight level wind translate to at the surface?
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#512 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:18 am

rockyman wrote:System is now at the longitude of Mobile/Gulf shores...about 1.5 degrees further west than was forecast at 5pm yesterday.


wow, ok I just woke up, What the heck is going on :eek:
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#513 Postby 28_Storms » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:20 am

ivanhater - we have our first named storm of the season and the track might have a dramatic change!
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#514 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:21 am

28_Storms wrote:ivanhater - we have our first named storm of the season and the track might have a dramatic change!


wow, I have some catching up to do!
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#515 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:21 am

ronjon wrote:Checking the last 3-4 hrs of SAT loops, the LLC is essentially stationary. Its drifting around without a definite path. Be interesting to see what NHC does at the 11 AM advisory.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
yeah, it looks like a very slow NW drift from that loop. I agree, it will be very interesting to see the 11am advisory.
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#516 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:21 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:What does a 50 kt. flight level wind translate to at the surface?


About 37.5 knots or 43.2 mph.
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#517 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:24 am

yeah I thought so on that. I wonder any more strnthening is possible before landfall.
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jusforsean
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#518 Postby jusforsean » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:24 am

o.k. i am only on my 2nd cup of coffee and trying to figure this out: Channel 10 news just said that is is staying on the nhc track into n florida on schedule. now here the scenario looks like we are in for a change? just curious what on the model plot link shows that it will stall? I am still learning how to read these things. And if it does what will the "new" track look like? I am very curious to see the new advisory at 11am. I really think the news stations should log on to storm2k before they do thier forcasts!!! :roll:
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wzrgirl1
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#519 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:26 am

jusforsean wrote:o.k. i am only on my 2nd cup of coffee and trying to figure this out: Channel 10 news just said that is is staying on the nhc track into n florida on schedule. now here the scenario looks like we are in for a change? just curious what on the model plot link shows that it will stall? I am still learning how to read these things. And if it does what will the "new" track look like? I am very curious to see the new advisory at 11am. I really think the news stations should log on to storm2k before they do thier forcasts!!! :roll:



if you asked me.....channel 10 has lost their credibility a long time ago...they make statements that give south florida a false sense of security.....we were discussing this yesterday
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#520 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:26 am

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