Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[boca]

Nice looking wave around 40W moving west at 15mph. I would gather thats what will cause Puerto Rico's increment weather around mid week.

[Cyclenall]

I don't see much at all. However, I was thinking of talking about future tropical systems down the road (next 7 days) with what the models are showing and such. So instead of focusing in on TD1 what else are the models doing?

[Audrey2Katrina]

It's kind of early, but I agree, there's been an increase of activity now, mostly below 15N...perhaps we'll be hearing of TD2 within a week or so...not to jump the gun; but things are slowly beginning to roil a bit more in the tropics. As for me, I would be content for no real action before August (give more time to shore up defenses)...and even then, keep the big ones away.

A2K

[cycloneye]

Nice looking wave around 40W moving west at 15mph. I would gather thats what will cause Puerto Rico's increment weather around mid week.

Remember when I posted 2 weeks ago the San Juan AFD that was interesting? Well that is the wave they said at that time was going to be the best wave so far to enter the Caribbean.However the dates may not be exact but they nailed the wave anyway by the help of the GFS.

Below is that thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 89&start=0

[JPmia]

any update on this wave with the models?

[Cyclenall]

I checked all the models on the main page with the GFS and GDFL last night. All I found was the GFS showing a weak depression near africa going west. After 2 days it's gone. This was last night, not know so I will check them again.

[wxwatcher91]

this wave has been in the TWDs for the past three days. If Im not mistaken, this is the same wave that a thread (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85512) was started yesterday for.

the latest TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 15N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS IS A
WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A V-SHAPE IN BOTH THE LOW AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS PLUS PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 44W-50W. INTERACTION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW SHOULD KEEP THE WAVE RELATIVELY
CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE

[Audrey2Katrina]

It'll be interesting to see what comes of it... still, doesn't look all that good right now.

A2K

[HURAKAN]

It'll be interesting to see what comes of it... still, doesn't look all that good right now.

A2K

IT'S JUNE!!! DON'T EXPECT MUCH FROM TROPICAL WAVES AT THIS POINT IN TIME!!

[Audrey2Katrina]

Believe me, I'm not...

And I sincerely hope I don't throughout the season... except for the nice FISHES!

A2K

[HURAKAN]

Believe me, I'm not...

And I sincerely hope I don't throughout the season... except for the nice FISHES!

A2K

Have faith, A LOT!!!

[cycloneye]

Well at least I will be getting a soaker here by midweek as the wave will interact with a trough to dump plenty of precipitation.

[gatorcane]

Well at least I will be getting a soaker here by midweek as the wave will interact with a trough to dump plenty of precipitation.

Yep Luis looks like it is possible you'll see some good tropical downpours and decent easterly breezes as the wave moves through

[cycloneye]

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE STILL DOES HAVE A V-PATTERN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 44W-52W. A FEW COMPUTER MODELS
HAVE THE WAVE SOMEWHAT INITIALIZED AND CARRY IT QUICKLY WESTWARD
POSSIBLY ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN IN A FEW
DAYS.


The above is from the 2 PM discussion.

[gatorcane]

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE STILL DOES HAVE A V-PATTERN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 44W-52W. A FEW COMPUTER MODELS
HAVE THE WAVE SOMEWHAT INITIALIZED AND CARRY IT QUICKLY WESTWARD
POSSIBLY ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN IN A FEW
DAYS.


The above is from the 2 PM discussion.

Any chances for development Luis?

[cycloneye]

No,not ideal enviroment.

[HURAKAN]

No,not ideal enviroment.

What about in a few days when the wave interacts with the trough. Should we keep an eye on it?

[gatorcane]

No,not ideal enviroment.

I just checked the NWS radar out of San Juan and it looks like there is scattered to moderate showers around St Thomas and St. Croix moving west along the trades. You may see some of that later today, however, this central atlantic wave should increase the activity when it gets closer.

[cycloneye]

No,not ideal enviroment.

What about in a few days when the wave interacts with the trough. Should we keep an eye on it?

Surely there is anything wrong to watch this wave and that is why we are here as enthusiastics of tropical weather.

[cycloneye]

The trade winds have kicked into the NE Caribbean.The scattered showers today haved been enhanced by a nearby trough.That wave east of the Lesser Antilles will cause increased shower activity by midweek maybe earlier as it's moving at a good clip arounfd 20kts.