Tropical Storm Alberto

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

Lots of dry air over Alberto's center.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Looks like shear in front of this system (except for Florida) should be favorable for a little strengthening.

but I thought if it moved west it would be sheared heavily...looking at this map; the shear to the west is light.

[gatorcane]

actually the latest discussion is interesting.....so it may meander in the GOM for a while???

[Stormcenter]

The NWS in N.O sounds little more concerned this morning in reference to TS Alberto issuing an updated discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.UPDATE...
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING THE ZONES AND DIGITAL PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT ONGOING CHANGES AND TRENDS REGARDING NEW DEVELOPMENTS WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #1 AND ITS AFFECTS ON LOCAL WEATHER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXPOSED NEAR 23.7N 88.3W...WITH SPIRAL BANDS THAT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOVEMENT BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 290/08KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS
REMOVED OF THIS EXPOSED CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH AND WELL
EAST...HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER APPEARS
TO BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING IN THE LIX CWA COASTAL WATERS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR CONVECTION AT SEA.
WILL BE UPDATING COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS THREAT.

THE UPDATED ZONES WILL REFLECT SOME POPS IN A GRADIENT FROM 10
PERCENT INTERIOR TO 50 PERCENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME BUT NOT TRULY INDICATIVE OF THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT THAT T.D. 1 APPEARS TO BE
BRINGING WESTWARD. WILL ALSO UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
INTRODUCE THREAT OF STORMS AND SQUALLS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

[HurricaneHunter914]

but I thought if it moved west it would be sheared heavily...looking at this map; the shear to the west is light.

That makes no sense.

[HurricaneQueen]

:crying: Have you seen my mommie?

Sorry, Paul, haven't seen her but I hope she has her umbrella and galoshes (does anyone still use that word???) with her. Looks as if we are in for a very rainy day. Hurray!!!!!

Check this out: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Bonita+Springs%2C+FL

Guess someone forgot to look outside. It says it's clear and sunny in Bonita!!!!!

Great day to curl up with a good book.

Lynn

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yup... Alberto's a schizophrenic. ...looks to be going in two different directions... hardly a thing of beauty as these storms go. The LLC seems bent on going one way, while the convection to the N and E the other. Aside from an interesting subject of conversation, Alberto will be less of an event than Arlene was last year unless something dramatically changes.

A2K

[HurricaneHunter914]

Don't worry rain is on the way (unless dry air disappates this system).

[gatorcane]

Looking at the visible that is some major shear ripping Albert to shreads - classic example. The center is well displaced from the convection....

[Frank P]

Using the GOES rapid scan vis loops, at this very moment it sure looks like the system is stationary....

[Brent]

WOW, this storm looks bad. I'm not sure it will make a landfall anywhere as a named system.

[CHRISTY]

guys alberto has a small window to intensify a little because SHEAR is going to be on the increase...and also i might add alberto is in an area were there is bone dry air all around it so honestly the chances of this becoming to strong are very limited.i say a 50-60 mph tropical storm at landfall.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm blaming it mostly on dry air right now, the shear over the system right now is favorable.

[CHRISTY]

I'm blaming it mostly on dry air right now, the shear over the system right now is favorable.

right but the dry air will either keep alberto in check or kill it.

[Ivanhater]

Well look at the bright side, at least we can actually find a center today.

[CHRISTY]

Well look at the bright side, at least we can actually find a center today.

yea thats true.

[feederband]

I'm blaming it mostly on dry air right now, the shear over the system right now is favorable.

right but the dry air will either keep alberto in check or kill it.

If it takes the projected track wont it run back into some of his own moisture..?

[HurricaneHunter914]

No because that moisture is a part of it, that moisture will just move in the same direction as the center.

[CHRISTY]

I'm blaming it mostly on dry air right now, the shear over the system right now is favorable.

right but the dry air will either keep alberto in check or kill it.

If it takes the projected track wont it run back into some of his own moisture..?

feederband alberto's time limit to intensify is very small because once that trough comes down shear is going to pickup and alberto will begin to pick up speed and move towards NE into north florida.of course this is not set in stone.

[floridahurricaneguy]

So what seems more likely? Stationary and weakening and dieding or moving west. or going on predicted path with landfall somewhere around Big Bend or down towards Cedar Key?

Matt