Tropical Storm Alberto

[gatorcane]

So what seems more likely? Stationary and weakening and dieding or moving west. or going on predicted path with landfall somewhere around Big Bend or down towards Cedar Key?

Matt

I would put my bets on it moving towards the projected path the NHC has and that is just north of Tampa - not as far north as Cedar Key

[Audrey2Katrina]

All of the above

A2K

[HurricaneHunter914]

But it depends if the trough moves slowly towards Alberto or quickly towards Alberto.

[CrazyC83]

This is sooooo Arlene 2.0! Could it be a harbinger for things to come?

[O Town]

This is sooooo Arlene 2.0! Could it be a harbinger for things to come?

I know, this is kinda erie to me.

[28_Storms]

NHC held with a Florida hit

[gatorcane]

Looks like Alberto is barely moving now based on my sat inspection....

[CHRISTY]

So what seems more likely? Stationary and weakening and dieding or moving west. or going on predicted path with landfall somewhere around Big Bend or down towards Cedar Key?

Matt

my thinking right now is alberto will make lanfall somewere in northernflorida as a minimal tropical storm.

[jasons2k]

but I thought if it moved west it would be sheared heavily...looking at this map; the shear to the west is light.

That makes no sense.

Actually, I have wondered the same thing that EWG is referring to. It's been stated that if the LLC moves west, it will be moving into increasing shear which will kill any chance for development. However, every shear map I've looked at this AM shows LESS shear to the west - in the path of the LLC. So I'm wondering myself - where is all the shear to the west that's 'supposed' to keep it from developing if the LLC continues to break away?

[28_Storms]

2006 conditions are nearly identical to 2005 (aside from slightly lower SST's)

[gatorcane]

but I thought if it moved west it would be sheared heavily...looking at this map; the shear to the west is light.

That makes no sense.

Actually, I have wondered the same thing that EWG is referring to. It's been stated that if the LLC moves west, it will be moving into increasing shear which will kill any chance for development. However, every shear map I've looked at this AM shows LESS shear to the west - in the path of the LLC. So I'm wondering myself - where is all the shear to the west that's 'supposed' to keep it from developing if the LLC continues to break away?

I think the shear is on the way as the trough approaches.....its not there just yet

[CHRISTY]

but I thought if it moved west it would be sheared heavily...looking at this map; the shear to the west is light.

That makes no sense.

Actually, I have wondered the same thing that EWG is referring to. It's been stated that if the LLC moves west, it will be moving into increasing shear which will kill any chance for development. However, every shear map I've looked at this AM shows LESS shear to the west - in the path of the LLC. So I'm wondering myself - where is all the shear to the west that's 'supposed' to keep it from developing if the LLC continues to break away?

the reason the LLC is breaking away is due maybe do to increaseing shear and the dry air thats chokeing it. ps!remember guys those shear maps we use sometimes are not 100% accurate.

[CrazyC83]

This is sooooo Arlene 2.0! Could it be a harbinger for things to come?

I know, this is kinda erie to me.

Yeah - it's not Alberto that is the big worry, but what lies ahead...

[Audrey2Katrina]

This is sooooo Arlene 2.0! Could it be a harbinger for things to come?

Doubt it... Arlene WAS a lot like this in its early stages; but it developed a lot better before landfall, and was just under hurricane status when it did... I just can't see this one doing the same.

A2K

[HurricaneHunter914]

Same with me Alberto is way to sheared aswell.

[jasons2k]

but I thought if it moved west it would be sheared heavily...looking at this map; the shear to the west is light.

That makes no sense.

Actually, I have wondered the same thing that EWG is referring to. It's been stated that if the LLC moves west, it will be moving into increasing shear which will kill any chance for development. However, every shear map I've looked at this AM shows LESS shear to the west - in the path of the LLC. So I'm wondering myself - where is all the shear to the west that's 'supposed' to keep it from developing if the LLC continues to break away?

I think the shear is on the way as the trough approaches.....its not there just yet

Right, but isn't that why the shear is forecasted to increase in the NE GOM - closer to the trough? The LLC looks like it's trapped in a Low-level steering flow, with the shear ripping away the convection. My concern is that if the LLC continues to the west and misses the trough, shear will relax again. Then what?

[wxman57]

I put my money on squalls continuing to move away from the exposed LLC and a gradual wind-down in the mid Gulf of the LLC. Squalls will hit Florida, but no LLC associated. Here's a McIdas image I just snapped:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto20.gif

[gatorcane]

but I thought if it moved west it would be sheared heavily...looking at this map; the shear to the west is light.

That makes no sense.

Actually, I have wondered the same thing that EWG is referring to. It's been stated that if the LLC moves west, it will be moving into increasing shear which will kill any chance for development. However, every shear map I've looked at this AM shows LESS shear to the west - in the path of the LLC. So I'm wondering myself - where is all the shear to the west that's 'supposed' to keep it from developing if the LLC continues to break away?

I think the shear is on the way as the trough approaches.....its not there just yet

Right, but isn't that why the shear is forecasted to increase in the NE GOM - closer to the trough? The LLC looks like it's trapped in a Low-level steering flow, with the shear ripping away the convection. My concern is that if the LLC continues to the west and misses the trough, shear will relax again. Then what?

Well its possible - based on my observation of the NW Atlantic water vapor loop - that trough is really not digging down just yet and it may not dig down that far. Now in that case Alberto could escape and then redevelop as it would move WNW with the low level flow. But there is so much dry air I doubt it would amount to much.

[feederband]

I put my money on squalls continuing to move away from the exposed LLC and a gradual wind-down in the mid Gulf of the LLC. Squalls will hit Florida, but no LLC associated. Here's a McIdas image I just snapped:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto20.gif

I bet you a quarter it will come close to the NHC track...

[ronjon]

I put the VIS SAT loop on high speed from this morning and you can see the LLC drifting now slowly to the N-NW. Looks like the NHC track may verify. Also, starting to see increased convection on the northern semi-circle of the LLC and an overall more circular appearance - although its still broad. Some small banding features in the NE quad and TStorms appear to be getting pulled toward the center on the east side. It has a small window (looks like shear has abated somewhat) - maybe 12 hrs - to get slightly stronger. Its trying to mix out the dry air now which is a slow process given how much was (is) in the GOM.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html