and if it is left behind is there a chance it could re-strengthen?boca_chris wrote:WxMan is there a possibility of the swirl getting left behind in the GOM since it won't feel the trough come through the north?
Tropical Storm Alberto
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The latest NWS radar out of Tampa shows the rain coverage off the west coast of Florida is shrinking and pulling away from the coast -
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... w&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... w&loop=yes
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- Extremeweatherguy
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The rain will retuern I'm sure of it.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
238 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006
FLZ041-044-111930-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
238 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006
...SQUALLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND WESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES...
AT 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF SQUALLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MONROE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEESBURG...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.
THIS BAND PRODUCED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH AT THE SANFORD AIRPORT.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE MID FLORIDA LAKES...DE BARY...FRUITLAND PARK AND LAKE GEORGE.
This squall line just moved through between Mt. Dora and Eustis. Looked like a dust storm, followed by a very brief heavy shower. Reminded me that I needed to move objects capable of flying inside (like my wheelbarrow that was tossed 30 feet down my driveway).
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
238 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006
FLZ041-044-111930-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
238 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006
...SQUALLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND WESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES...
AT 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF SQUALLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MONROE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEESBURG...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.
THIS BAND PRODUCED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH AT THE SANFORD AIRPORT.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE MID FLORIDA LAKES...DE BARY...FRUITLAND PARK AND LAKE GEORGE.
This squall line just moved through between Mt. Dora and Eustis. Looked like a dust storm, followed by a very brief heavy shower. Reminded me that I needed to move objects capable of flying inside (like my wheelbarrow that was tossed 30 feet down my driveway).
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg
Some convection is trying to get near the center. It looks like Alberto is trying to get more organized.
Some convection is trying to get near the center. It looks like Alberto is trying to get more organized.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO (AL012006) ON 20060611 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060611 1800 060612 0600 060612 1800 060613 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 87.7W 26.1N 87.0W 27.7N 85.6W 29.0N 83.0W
BAMM 24.2N 87.7W 25.5N 87.9W 26.2N 88.0W 26.2N 87.7W
A98E 24.2N 87.7W 25.2N 86.9W 26.0N 86.1W 27.6N 83.3W
LBAR 24.2N 87.7W 25.6N 87.5W 27.3N 86.9W 28.9N 85.2W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 54KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 54KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060613 1800 060614 1800 060615 1800 060616 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.6N 79.5W 35.7N 69.6W 43.9N 54.8W 49.0N 37.3W
BAMM 26.4N 87.5W 28.2N 86.1W 28.9N 81.0W 29.0N 74.9W
A98E 28.9N 81.1W 32.5N 74.2W 38.1N 61.4W 44.6N 40.7W
LBAR 30.2N 82.4W 35.0N 75.1W 43.4N 61.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 56KTS 57KTS 56KTS 44KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 44KTS 32KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.2N LONCUR = 87.7W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 23.1N LONM12 = 87.1W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.9N LONM24 = 85.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Graphic of 18:00z Models
Above are the plots and graphic of the 18:00z run of the tropical models.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060611 1800 060612 0600 060612 1800 060613 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 87.7W 26.1N 87.0W 27.7N 85.6W 29.0N 83.0W
BAMM 24.2N 87.7W 25.5N 87.9W 26.2N 88.0W 26.2N 87.7W
A98E 24.2N 87.7W 25.2N 86.9W 26.0N 86.1W 27.6N 83.3W
LBAR 24.2N 87.7W 25.6N 87.5W 27.3N 86.9W 28.9N 85.2W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 54KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 54KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060613 1800 060614 1800 060615 1800 060616 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.6N 79.5W 35.7N 69.6W 43.9N 54.8W 49.0N 37.3W
BAMM 26.4N 87.5W 28.2N 86.1W 28.9N 81.0W 29.0N 74.9W
A98E 28.9N 81.1W 32.5N 74.2W 38.1N 61.4W 44.6N 40.7W
LBAR 30.2N 82.4W 35.0N 75.1W 43.4N 61.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 56KTS 57KTS 56KTS 44KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 44KTS 32KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.2N LONCUR = 87.7W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 23.1N LONM12 = 87.1W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.9N LONM24 = 85.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Graphic of 18:00z Models



Above are the plots and graphic of the 18:00z run of the tropical models.
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Is it just me or does the NHC's track look a little more south.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Looks as thought the low level center may be starting to move (drift?)to the nne or ne. Hard to tell though. Thoughts and comments welcomed.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satrgnlloop.master.pl?keywest&type=vis
Robert
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satrgnlloop.master.pl?keywest&type=vis
Robert

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- stormtruth
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- Ivanhater
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new nogaps show a landfall around Pensacola, lol
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/nogaps ... /slp13.png
*edited by staff to make link clickable - image too large
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/nogaps ... /slp13.png
*edited by staff to make link clickable - image too large
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- all_we_know_is_FALLING
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TampaFl wrote:Looks as thought the low level center may be starting to move (drift?)to the nne or ne. Hard to tell though. Thoughts and comments welcomed.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satrgnlloop.master.pl?keywest&type=vis
Robert
It does sort of look like that, yes. Perhaps it will start to drift E then a NE track...maybe?
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