Flood Watch thread SW & WC Fla.......

[dixiebreeze]

Expires 5:30 PM EDT on June 11, 2006

Statement as of 5:16 AM EDT on June 11, 2006


... Flood Watch in effect from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through
Tuesday morning...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay area - Ruskin FL has
issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of southwest Florida and west central
Florida... including the following areas... in southwest
Florida... Charlotte and Lee in west central Florida... Citrus...
De Soto... Hardee... Hernando... Highlands... Hillsborough...
Levy... Manatee... Pasco... Pinellas... Polk... Sarasota and Sumter.

* From 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Tuesday morning

* Tropical Depression One will produce periods of heavy rain
across west central and southwest Florida this afternoon through
Monday night. Storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are
likely across west central and southwest Florida... with locally
higher amounts possible.

* Recent dry conditions will allow the ground to absorb a
significant amount of rainfall. However... heavy bursts of rain
may cause flooding of streets and low lying areas... especially
in urban areas this afternoon through Monday night.

A Flood Watch means that flooding is possible during the next
24 to 36 hours. Residents living in flood prone areas should take
action to protect property.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Updating the situation this morning, we now have our first tropical storm of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Tropical Storm Alberto as we already know from various additional threads. Max sustained winds are now 45 mph with higher gusts. This is based on a recent flight level wind of 51 knots reported in convection well north and east of the center. This is despite the fact strong southwesterly shear has kept convection north and east of the center and the system remains lopsided as anticipated all along. Shear could actually increase further as this system approaches the northwestern Florida Peninsula during the next 24-36 hours. A tropical storm watch maybe needed in this area later this afternoon.

Given the anticipated track and the fact this system is lopsided could mean good news for the Florida Peninsula in terms of rainfall. The panhandle might stay dry through most of this event and unfortunately the worse of the deficits are situated in the northern Gulf coast. Below I compiled some stats showing rainfall deficits for the year 2006 across Florida and the northern gulf coast. The further north and west one heads along the central gulf coast, the worse the rainfall deficits and unfortunately the lower the chances for rainfall along the central Gulf coast the way it looks right now.

Key West: -6.55 inches
Miami: -1.44 inches
Naples: -8.09 inches
West Palm Beach: -7.21 inches
Fort Lauderdale: -7.30 inches
Fort Myers: -6.60 inches
Sarasota: -4.44 inches
Vero Beach: -9.46 inches
Orlando: -8.64 inches
Melbourne: -7.67 inches
Daytona: -10.70 inches
Apalachicola: -7.71 inches
Tallahassee: -11.36 inches
Jacksonville: -8.53 inches

Mobile: -17.02 inches
Hattiesburg: -15.63 inches
Baton Rouge: -18.00 inches
New Orleans: -15.22 inches

As you can see, the areas facing the worse deficits might not benefit a whole lot unfortunately. However the Florida Peninsula will likely experience both a blessing and in a few areas alittle too much rain in a short amount of time. The expected totals could wipe out the deficits altogether across most of the Florida Peninsula during the next 24-48 hours.

Will monitor these numbers very closely.

Jim

[dixiebreeze]

Informative post Jim, thanks.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

How come there are so many fires in Florida, when most places along the central Gulf Coast deficits much higher than most of the FLA locations?

[Recurve]

How come there are so many fires in Florida, when most places along the central Gulf Coast deficits much higher than most of the FLA locations?

More lightning?

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

How come there are so many fires in Florida, when most places along the central Gulf Coast deficits much higher than most of the FLA locations?

More lightning?

Maybe. I always here about the drought in FL on TWC, but never here about the deficits along the central Gulf.