Tropical Storm Alberto

[Cyclenall]

Guys, I just looked at a shear map and the shear is 0 knots right where Alberto is! And this map is from today so what the heck is going on? Another thing, the shear is decreasing where alberto is sitting. Just post it right now .

If there really is no shear on the map, then why is there shear on it right now? Something I need a answer on.

Inaccurate shear charts!

Can you give me a link to todays shear map please (one that shows the trends) because I want to see it. I don't know the links and such. Thanks a lot.

Wow it seems like chaos right now.

That's what Storm2K is known for when a TC occurs. I keep reading other weather message board posts bashing Storm2K right and left.

[HURAKAN]

AT LEAST THE CENTER WAS UNDER THE CONVECTION!!!















And the list continues!!!

[Dean4Storms]

Convection is increasing on the SW side as the UL moisture increases from the south........It ain't done yet.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[southerngale]

I think KFDM Meteorologist was just making a general comment about the pathetic condition of this tropical storm, not meant to be a challenge to all other tropical storms in recorded history.

[whereverwx]

OK, here's a longer RGB loop (.wmv) of Alberto from 00:15 UTC June 9th to 19:15 UTC June 11th.

http://s8.quicksharing.com/v/6699756/lo ... b.wmv.html

Also, this is a very huge (11.8mb) zip file containing high quality RGB images (stills) of Alberto from 00:15 UTC June 9th to 19:15 UTC June 11th.

Download link

[spinfan4eva]

Downed trees/power lines-60 MPH Winds now reported in FLA with outter squalls

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
414 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

FLC035-107-112045-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-060611T2045Z/
PUTNAM FL-FLAGLER FL-
414 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN FLAGLER AND SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ANDALUSIA...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES WERE REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
WITH THIS STORM IN SOUTHWEST FLAGLER COUNTY...NEAR DAYTONA NORTH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
COMO AND SAN MATEO.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 800-499-1594 TO REPORT
SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 2937 8156 2941 8142 2960 8144 2957 8163

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If memory serves me he looks better than Henri

[sweetpea]

Downed trees/power lines-60 MPH Winds now reported in FLA with outter squalls

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
414 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

FLC035-107-112045-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-060611T2045Z/
PUTNAM FL-FLAGLER FL-
414 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN FLAGLER AND SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ANDALUSIA...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES WERE REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
WITH THIS STORM IN SOUTHWEST FLAGLER COUNTY...NEAR DAYTONA NORTH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
COMO AND SAN MATEO.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 800-499-1594 TO REPORT
SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 2937 8156 2941 8142 2960 8144 2957 8163

I live about 10 miles east of Daytona North. The sky is BLACK here. Really weird looking clouds. Was just outside smoking a cigarette and their are kids playing soccer at a park across the street from me.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Here's a better shear map.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I think KFDM Meteorologist was just making a general comment about the pathetic condition of this tropical storm, not meant to be a challenge to all other tropical storms in recorded history.

Thanks, you're right. Another sheared storm.

[Cyclenall]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Here's a better shear map.

Thank you, now look at the map where Alberto is. If i'm reading the shear map correctly it has 0-5 knots of shear over Alberto. And that's decreasing as well. This doesn't make any sense at all.

[Ivanhater]

Folks, He is trying to make a comeback, trying to wrap thunderstorms around from the northeast side and flare up on the southwest side

[HURAKAN]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Here's a better shear map.

Thank you, now look at the map where Alberto is. If i'm reading the shear map correctly it has 0-5 knots of shear over Alberto. And that's decreasing as well. This doesn't make any sense at all.

That map shows the tendency over the last 24 hours. According to the map, shear has decreased just a little bit!

[HURAKAN]

Folks, He is trying to make a comeback, trying to wrap thunderstorms around from the northeast side and flare up on the southwest side

So far, in Alberto's 31:30 hours of life, his comebacks have been in the morning hours!!!

[Opal storm]

Could be just me but I don't see this moving NW at 9mph,it looks more stationary to me.I think it's getting ready to shoot off to the NE like the NHC has it forecasted to do.

[cpdaman]

now the map shows the total shear(color) and tendency

[Dean4Storms]

AFD Mobile.......


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
243 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED AWAY FROM
THE DEEP CONVECTION. STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS CAUGHT UP IN THE DRY MID LEVELS AS SEEN BY WATER VAPOR. /11


&&

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS DEPENDS ON FUTURE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF ALBERTO. GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERSE IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS...COURSE OF LEAST REGRET IS THE GFS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK AND AGREES MORE CLOSELY WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE IF ANY RAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE FRONT
IN A FEW DAYS AS IT DROPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS SUPPOSED TO PICK UP ALBERTO AND MOVE IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...
HOWEVER IN DEFERENCE TO THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN WILL BOOST THE POPS
JUST A BIT NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THESE TWO MODELS KEEP IT CLOSER TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PUSH MORE MOISTURE NORTH TOWARD THIS
AREA.



.LONG TERM...ASSUMMING THE TROPICAL STORM IS HISTORY BY THE START OF
THE LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MID 90S
MOST PLACES FOR HIGHS AND AROUND 70 TO MID AND UPPER 70S FOR LOWS.
/11


&&

.MARINE...WEATHER HEADLINE FOR THE DAY IS THE FORMATION OF THE FIRST
TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON OVER THE MID
GULF...ALBERTO. DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION THIS MORNING
INDICATED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN SQUALLS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF...NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW A HIGHLY SHEARED STRUCTURE TO THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF
ALBERTO. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...WAS
WELL REMOVED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION/HIGHER WINDS WELL EAST OF THE
CENTER. THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
SHOWS ALBERTO CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY AND MOVING
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY. EARLY IN
THE FORECAST...MAIN IMPACT LOOKS TO COME IN THE WAY OF BUILDING
SWELL...WHICH WILL MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES.
WE ARE ALSO CALLING FOR SOME PASSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES AS
WELL. WITH ALBERTO FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF TUESDAY...A
DECREASING WIND AND SUBSIDING SEA STATE IS FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO...REFER TO THE
LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. /10

[Ivanhater]

Folks, He is trying to make a comeback, trying to wrap thunderstorms around from the northeast side and flare up on the southwest side

So far, in Alberto's 31:30 hours of life, his comebacks have been in the morning hours!!!

yep, will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

A comeback is happening. Look how cloud cover is returning near the center.

[Dean4Storms]

AFD Tallahassee.......


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
225 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.SYNOPSIS...PRIMARY TOPIC IS TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND CONTINUES TO GET FARTHER AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM DEEP CONVECTION. WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY MID
LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE SE U.S. INCLUDING THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. KEY ITEMS ACROSS THE CONUS IS THE TROUGH IN THE
EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO COLORADO.

&&


.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE NAM TAKES THE ALBERTO
CIRCULATION WESTWARD. THE GFS BRINGS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
ASHORE IN OUR CWA. THE UKMET STILL HAS IT IN THE CENTRAL GULF
BY 72 HRS. GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE PICKED
UP BY THE DEEPENING TROUGH...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE CIRCULATION WILL MISS THE DEEPENING TROUGH. WHAT WILL I
DO? GO WITH NHC TRACK FORECAST WHICH CLOSELY RESEMBLES GFS GUIDANCE.
I HAVE REDUCED MON AND TUE MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...EXTENDED
THE POPS INTO TUE MORNING TO INDICATE THE SLOWER MOVING TROPICAL
STORM.

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY) THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF REBUILD THE CENTRAL U.S.
RIDGE MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...THEN TAKE THE RIDGE AND CENTER IT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A FAMILIAR THEME FOR OUR AREA
SO FAR THIS SUMMER...ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND
BELOW-AVERAGE POP.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY WINDS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. SEAS ARE
CLIMBING AT BOTH BUOYS...BOTH CURRENTLY ABOVE 5 FEET. WILL GO WITH A
SCA WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY LIGHT SHWRS AND LCL 5-7K CIGS WILL CONT TO DRIFT
N ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT REST OF THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING BUT VFR
CONDS EXPECTED. MID AND ESPECIALLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PFN-TLH-VLD LINE DURING REST OF THE AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF TS ALBERTO. AS ALBERTO
APPROACHES W COAST OF FLA...LCL WIND GRADIENTS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 5
MPH TONIGHT WHICH FAVORS LIMITED CIGS/VSBY PROBLEMS AND LOW STATUS
INSTEAD OF FOG. USING NHC PREFERRED GFS...NO FOG FORECASTED ANYWHERE
BUT THIS MODEL HAS DONE A POOR JOB PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS SO WILL USE
NAM VSBYS/CIGS WHICH SHOW MVFR ALL BUT PFN OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.