TD1 Track has Shifted from Local Mets early forecasts

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hicksta
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#41 Postby hicksta » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:06 pm

Toro, dont be hating on my boy airforcemet. He called everything before rita. Told me the info when schools will close when evacs will start etc. He knows his stuff and i trust his predictions. So back off :P
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#42 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:21 pm

When I first came here I knew nothing and got completely confused by the abbreviations. Then I forced myself to learn them, and now I use the all the time, although there are still countless ones I don't know.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/contract.html

And this could still go either way... but I'm pretty convinced this will get caught by the trough, especially if it intensifies.
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#43 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:35 pm

I agree I think that the trof will pick up this system and fling it across the Fla peninsula.:)
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#44 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:39 pm

And therefrom, UP the Eastern Seaboard, and quite likely some bad weather for the NE, and the maritime provinces.

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#45 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:17 am

Looking at this loop you can see TD#1 is still moving NNW way ahead of it's main convection but "trying" to get better organized.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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#46 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:20 am

the longer it moves NNW (and not N), the further NW the track will move.
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#47 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Sun Jun 11, 2006 1:11 am

Bad case of Deja Vu here; fortuntely, this thing is no Katrina.

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#48 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 8:57 am

The NHC has introduced a second scenario this morning. They now say there is a chance this thing may never turn back NE. We shall see...
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#49 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:14 am

I'm pretty convinced this will get caught by the trough, especially if it intensifies.



There was a kink in the zonal flow yesterday that looked like it might quickly dig down into the gulf. This morning that feature does not look like it will make it down as far as the coast. The only trof like feature I see in the water vapor loop is back in southern California and does not look like it is advancing east very fast.

I agree if Alberto strengthens slows or goes stationary a trof may pick him up eventually. The timing looks a lot slower this morning and that keeps the door open to other track scenarios.
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#50 Postby Johnny » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:02 am

I think that throwing out Houston, Texas as a possibility is WAY OFF base.



Toro: I'm not looking for a thank you or anything but I took it upon myself to correct your sentence above. Try not to leave those pesky commas out next time, ok? How's that for being picky? :cheesy:



I'm also from Houston and their is absolutely no way that this storm will effect us.
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#51 Postby beachbum_al » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:06 am

Considering it looks like the track is further to the west than predicted in the beginning do you think we will see the models move it a little more North. Like Alabama and Florida Panhandle? I will I am not an expert.
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#52 Postby skysummit » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:08 am

Check this out....look where the current position is and compare that to where most of the older models originated from:

Image
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#53 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:32 am

beachbum_al wrote:Considering it looks like the track is further to the west than predicted in the beginning do you think we will see the models move it a little more North. Like Alabama and Florida Panhandle? I will I am not an expert.


Haven't seen the latest yet, ... still think it looks poorly organized and could split two ways... but an Arlene-like scenario isn't out of the question.

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#54 Postby mvtrucking » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:15 pm

skysummit wrote:Check this out....look where the current position is and compare that to where most of the older models originated from:

Image


That is quite a bit west from the original.
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#55 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:53 pm

I can see what appears to be NW Cuba in there; but absolutely no other land areas to orient it with regard to.

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