Tropical Storm Alberto

[Ivanhater]

Does that mean this TS is Organizing?

I would use the word Pulsing

[HurricaneHunter914]

So the answer to my question is "yes"?

[Weatherfreak14]

Does that mean this TS is Organizing?

I would use the word Pulsing

I think its tryin to do both. Lets wait for the 8pm adv to see if pressure went down any.

[ALhurricane]

SPAGHETTI PLOT FROM 2PM..ALBERTO

The problem with just about all of those models is that they're keying on the upper levels, the levels moving the squalls NE toward Florida. But the LLC is detached and embedded in light flow from the ENE. So the two should become separated even farther with time. The models are, indeed, correct in forecasting the squalls to move NE toward Florida, but the LLC will probably be left behind.

In fact, the 00z and 12z EURO are showing the scenario you mentioned above. The ECMWF meanders the LLC in the Gulf for the next several days.

That solution is becoming more and more of a possibility.

[Ivanhater]

So the answer to my question is "yes"?

Not really, it is trying to come back, but I would wait to see if the trend continues or if it just gets sheared again

[wxman57]

Last few satellite frames indicate that the convective burst near 26N/87W is diminishing in intensity and getting sheared off to the east. There's not much significant squall activity in the Gulf now. All the "red" areas where recon found the TS force winds are gone.

Here's the image. The red associated with the convective burst NNE of the center was almost 50 miles farther west an hour ago:

[Weatherfreak14]

I agree with most models, its soon to start a NE track.

[Dean4Storms]

I'd say Struggling!

[Stratosphere747]

This system is far from trying to "organize."

In fact it looks about as bad as it ever has....

[HurricaneHunter914]

You're right, and once Recon gets to this system they'll probably downgrade it to a TD.

[HURAKAN]

This system is far from trying to "organize."

In fact it looks about as bad as it ever has....

That's every night!!!

[wxmann_91]

As the system becomes shallow, and if it weakens I agree that it is more likely to veer to the west under the influence of low-level wind flow.

[wxman57]

I'd say Struggling!

I'd say it's a poor excuse for a Tropical DEPRESSION, much less a TS. Guess I'll go hit the bike and get in a 25 mile ride now that it's cooled down to 92 degrees.

[stormtruth]

Seems to be more convection around the center with each new Satellite image. Cruel comments like "weak" and "subtropical" by some posters will not dampen Alberto's Sea Biscuit-like spirit.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

its now the shape of the strom its the size of the fight in the storm.

LOL It's not the shape of the storm it's the size of the fight in the storm.

Last year lots of blobs developed, there were some cat 5s and storms fought off shear to become hurricanes. It drove the mets crazy because they like to talk about shear and how Cat 5s are rare. It looks like this year could drive the mets crazy once again.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right now the Central Atlantic system has a better chance at organizing more than this "TD".

[Weatherfreak14]

Seems to be more convection around the center with each new Satellite image. Cruel comments like "weak" and "subtropical" by some posters will not dampen Alberto's Sea Biscuit-like spirit.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

its now the shape of the strom its the size of the fight in the storm.

LOL It's not the shape of the storm it's the size of the fight in the storm.

Last year lots of blobs developed, there were some cat 5s and storms fought off shear to become hurricanes. It drove the mets crazy because they like to talk about shear and how Cat 5s are rare. It looks like this year could drive the mets crazy once again.

Cant agree with u more.

[jasons2k]

In fact, the 00z and 12z EURO are showing the scenario you mentioned above. The ECMWF meanders the LLC in the Gulf for the next several days.

That solution is becoming more and more of a possibility.

I think this is happening. It looks to me like the mid-level circulation is getting pulled north but the LLC continues to split away to the W/NW. It looks like two centers almost on the visible. Interesting...

edit sorry for the quotes being off.

[Ivanhater]

[Weatherfreak14]

I just noticed that before you posted. Yep I think your right.

[Stratosphere747]

This system is far from trying to "organize."

In fact it looks about as bad as it ever has....

That's every night!!!

Actually the last few nights there was much more overall convection. It was just a matter of having a definitive center. I'm a pro-NHC guy, but this IMO will be one of those systems that they are questions about. Obviously it met the parameters for upgrade, but good grief this has hardly any resemblance to a "tropical storm."

*edit*

I'll also say the NHC has been quite clear in regards to how weak the system has been and weather to give it an upgrade to either TD, or TS status.