April 2, 2006 - my thoughts on the outbreak

[CrazyC83]

I know it is still going on to some degree and reports are coming in, but things have really calmed down.

Can anyone say wow! Nearly 600 severe weather reports including 58 tornado reports. 11 people dead and many others injured.

As bad as it was, it could have been much worse if it weren't for the excellent coverage of numerous local media outlets. They are out to save lives in this and it sure helps in this day and age! There's a reason we don't see tornadoes that kill hundreds of people.

The SPC blew this one. Never was a PDS issued, and never did they go to a high risk. In fact, in most of the area affected, there was only a slight risk of severe weather!!! We all called this one much better than they did. They, in fact, had higher threat levels yesterday which turned out to be a bust!

Now, as we move on to tomorrow, we have to wonder if this will refire in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...

God bless everyone who was in the path and especially those that saw their lives turned upside down...

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

NW TN and NE AR were on the very edge, to just outside, the moderate risk area.
26 dead, 25 in the Memphis Warning area alone..

The storms that killed so many in NW TN formed in Arkansas where just a few hours earlier in an AFD they were skeptical as to whether thunderstorms would even develop.

I disagree on the local media, though. Here's why:

Greene County, AR had an F3 tornado that tracked across the ENTIRE county. Not a single Tv station broke through during April 2 to announce that warning. They didn't for Clay County, Lawrence, or Randolph county. Of course, not all Memphis Tv stations cover those counties either.

During the Pemiscot/Dyer/Gibson county tornadoes the Tv stations were MUCH more interested in the Cross County/Crittenden/Shelby county supercell. As a powerful F3 tornadoes roared across Caruthersville, Newbern, Bradford, and other locales, Tv stations focused on places like Wynne, Marion, West Memphis, and Memphis. They continued to air video from a camera over the I-55 overpass in West Memphis as the storm approached. They aired MINIMAL coverage of what was happening to the north.

As the night wore on the disaster became apparent and slowly the horror of what had happened was told. It was SO clear on radar that those storms had tornadoes on them. Those hooks were amazing. The Cross County tornado was amazing too, but they could have attempted better coverage up to the north of Memphis.

[wxmann_91]

Wow, this is an old thread. That outbreak really probably stemed from a mesolow that locally backed winds in the area just a tad. The cap probably helped things too by being perfect enough for just a few sups to develop. Really, the outbreak hinged on just the development of the two major supercells of the day, otherwise, the MDT would've verified. As an SPC forecaster had stated, they don't forecast for a single supercell to develop or not.

[jkt21787]

NW TN and NE AR were on the very edge, to just outside, the moderate risk area.
26 dead, 25 in the Memphis Warning area alone..

The storms that killed so many in NW TN formed in Arkansas where just a few hours earlier in an AFD they were skeptical as to whether thunderstorms would even develop.

I disagree on the local media, though. Here's why:

Greene County, AR had an F3 tornado that tracked across the ENTIRE county. Not a single Tv station broke through during April 2 to announce that warning. They didn't for Clay County, Lawrence, or Randolph county. Of course, not all Memphis Tv stations cover those counties either.

During the Pemiscot/Dyer/Gibson county tornadoes the Tv stations were MUCH more interested in the Cross County/Crittenden/Shelby county supercell. As a powerful F3 tornadoes roared across Caruthersville, Newbern, Bradford, and other locales, Tv stations focused on places like Wynne, Marion, West Memphis, and Memphis. They continued to air video from a camera over the I-55 overpass in West Memphis as the storm approached. They aired MINIMAL coverage of what was happening to the north.

As the night wore on the disaster became apparent and slowly the horror of what had happened was told. It was SO clear on radar that those storms had tornadoes on them. Those hooks were amazing. The Cross County tornado was amazing too, but they could have attempted better coverage up to the north of Memphis.

I'm going to disagree on a couple of points with you...

No Memphis TV stations cover Randolph and Lawrence, so no wonder they didn't break in there. When the tornadic storm entered Clay/Green, WMC is the only station which covers them. When they heard of the damage in Marmaduke shortly after 6 PM (before Tornado warnings were issued for the southern supercell) WMC began their wall to wall coverage. I have it all on tape. They also did extensively cover both storms simultaneously. I have the entire 7 PM hour when there were tornado warnings for Crittenden County and others. Most of their attention was on the northern supercell as they knew the tornado was confirmed. It was rehashed that the northern storm was confirmed to be producing a tornado, while the southern was not, and in fact several times the OCMs mentioned they thought the southern supercell was weakening slightly (and it was).

Now, when the Tornado Warning was issued for Shelby County, all stations focused mostly on that storm, and for obvious reasons. Keep in mind most viewers in the Memphis DMA are going to be living in Shelby County. Its a high population center, its expected to get heavy and the majority of coverage, and it did. Still, the northern cell was not ignored completely.

Also, the only counties in the northern supercell that were in the Memphis DMA are Pemiscot and Dyer. The other counties are handled by Jonesboro, Paducah/Cape Girardeau, or Nashville. It doesn't mean counties outside there DMA but still within the station's viewing area shouldn't get coverage (and they did get it), but there is no reason to continuie 'wall to wall' for it. In fact one station did drop coverage after the Shelby County tornado warning as the cells were outside the Memphis DMA, the others didn't however and continued straight on through the end of the event. That station came back though when new tornado warnings were issued within the DMA.

About the video, you probably know how that goes. TV stations will ALWAYS go to any kind of video they can get their hands on of a storm, even if its not the best vantage point. There were obviously going to be no camera shots of the cell to our north until news crews arrived much later.