Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[cycloneye]

[Extremeweatherguy]

Really, Luis...that soon? This one looks like it will cross the Caribbean and not recurve....

I think so too, and it seems like JB agrees. This could be the wave that gives the western Gulf JB's predicted "pulse period" coming up. If this forms, it would be 2 Junes in a row with 2 named storms!

Also, I think if it develops it could have a much better chance than Alberto at become a hurricane!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I see an upside down "V" and its only June...maybe showing into this seasons future? I hope not...

This has Emily written all over it. It strongly reminds me of Hurricane Emily from last year for some reason. If this does start to form into something, then everyone who said this won't be a early season should re-think.

that is what I thought too! This system reminds me more of a July-like situation and an Emily scenario is certainly possible. If that is the case, then let's just hope it goes no further north than Emily!

[brunota2003]

but remember...even though JB did say something about this wave, the NWS in San Juan picked up on it about 2 or 3 weeks ago...this wave is/will be pretty interesting in the coming days as it could develop into at least something...

[28_Storms]

Get ready

That wave looks scary good for JUNE!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

but remember...even though JB did say something about this wave, the NWS in San Juan picked up on it about 2 or 3 weeks ago...this wave is/will be pretty interesting in the coming days as it could develop into at least something...

very true.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Last year,Arlene started out much the same way as Alberto and wound up crossing the Fl. panhandle as a TS. That surely is an ominous sign for the rest of the season

Last year, for ALL her shortcomings, Arlene was MUCH better organized than this thing, and almost reached hurricane status. I wouldn't be sounding the "ominous" bell just yet. Let's all just relax a little as this one thankfully fizzles into much needed rain event for Florida. The alarums can go up later, and hopefully much later, even more hopefully...we'll get past this year without anything resembling last year. JMHOFWIW

A2K

[Extremeweatherguy]

The only difference from Emily is that Emily formed a bit further east:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

We may have less warning with this one.

[28_Storms]

We may have less warning with this one.

Emily part 2?

[cycloneye]

Hey Cycloneye, what radar do you use for PR? I need to update...

Isn't it a little early for the trade winds to be so strong? Perhaps I'm just a little rusty and forgot.

I did find this one in my folder http://stormcarib.com/

bob

I like this one.Yes the trades are starting now in early June.Let's see what the season has instored for the NE Caribbean.

[28_Storms]

When will this be an invest and which site shows new invests?

[28_Storms]

Yes the trades are starting now in early June

When do the trades normally start?

[Extremeweatherguy]

When will this be an invest and which site shows new invests?

probably not until at least tomorrow. The NHC has their hands full with Alberto right now and probably do not want to freak us out by having two systems to watch at once in early June.

['CaneFreak]

[quote="28_Storms"][quote]
Yes the trades are starting now in early June
[/quote]

When do the trades normally start?[/quote]

Trades generally start in late July and early August.

[Opal storm]

Guys...it's still just a wave,calm down.This is exactly what happend with Alberto when everybody thought it was going to explode into a Wilma,now you think this will be an Emily.I agree this is a nice wave and I think it has real potential,but let's just wait until at least it actually forms into something before making predictions like this.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the 72 hour forecast for the wave...and what is that behind it! Another wave? And behind that one...Another! What is this? A wave attack in the Caribbean? This could be a long season...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[28_Storms]

Thanks CaneFreak!

[28_Storms]

And behind that one...Another! What is this? A wave train in the Caribbean before June 15th? This could be a long season...

Conditions are similar to 2005 - low shear and air pressure - sst slightly cooler. From what I've read low shear and air pressure are the major ingredients for the "storm train" to get rolling - just like last year.

[Brent]

Guys...it's still just a wave,calm down.This is exactly what happend with Alberto when everybody thought it was going to explode into a Wilma,now you think this will be an Emily.I agree this is a nice wave and I think it has real potential,but let's just wait until at least it actually forms into something before making predictions like this.

LOL, for real.

If it were 6 weeks from now I'd be much more concerned, but it's not, it's June 11th.

[Stratosphere747]

It's sad to see the constant hype for unformed systems. Nothing more than a tropical wave and it's already compared to Emily, which was one of the most unique storms in tropical history.