Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles
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- Grease Monkey
- Category 2
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Yeah but you never know. Maybe 1,000 years ago June was a very active month as well and we just happen to be in that cycle again?
Last edited by Grease Monkey on Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- Audrey2Katrina
- Category 5
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Guys...it's still just a wave,calm down.This is exactly what happend with Alberto when everybody thought it was going to explode into a Wilma,now you think this will be an Emily.I agree this is a nice wave and I think it has real potential,but let's just wait until at least it actually forms into something before making predictions like this.
Well stated... the engine along the ITCZ is beginning to thrum, but this isn't really new "news"... I recall having noticed this trend several days ago, and most folks seemed to pooh-pooh it off... and essentially I think they were correct. There will be a lot of action when the time comes... hopefully nothing remotely as devastating as what last year brought us.
A2K
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Flossy 56 Audrey 57 Hilda 64* Betsy 65* Camille 69* Edith 71 Carmen 74 Bob 79 Danny 85 Elena 85 Juan 85 Florence 88 Andrew 92*, Opal 95, Danny 97, Georges 98*, Isidore 02, Lili 02, Ivan 04, Cindy 05*, Dennis 05, Katrina 05*, Gustav 08*, Isaac 12*, Nate 17, Barry 19, Cristobal 20, Marco, 20, Sally, 20, Zeta 20*, Claudette 21 IDA* 21 Francine *24
- Audrey2Katrina
- Category 5
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Good shot there, Thanks, Luis...
Still don't see this thing amounting to much...but time will tell. You folks in the Windwards...keep us abreast of anything, and stay safe this season. (As, of course, should everyone else.)
A2K
Still don't see this thing amounting to much...but time will tell. You folks in the Windwards...keep us abreast of anything, and stay safe this season. (As, of course, should everyone else.)
A2K
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Flossy 56 Audrey 57 Hilda 64* Betsy 65* Camille 69* Edith 71 Carmen 74 Bob 79 Danny 85 Elena 85 Juan 85 Florence 88 Andrew 92*, Opal 95, Danny 97, Georges 98*, Isidore 02, Lili 02, Ivan 04, Cindy 05*, Dennis 05, Katrina 05*, Gustav 08*, Isaac 12*, Nate 17, Barry 19, Cristobal 20, Marco, 20, Sally, 20, Zeta 20*, Claudette 21 IDA* 21 Francine *24
- beachbum_al
- Category 5
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- 'CaneFreak
- Category 5
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- Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
- Location: New Bern, NC
beachbum:
Not a dumb question at all. A tropical wave is kind of "kink" in the normal easterly flow (it gets waaaayyyy more complicated than that, but let's stick with that description for now).
Anyway, the "kink" in a tropical wave represents lower pressures that point poleward (north, in the northern hemisphere). When we analyze a trropical wave in imagery, then, there's often an associated curvature ("kink") in the cloud field that points toward the north. A sharp wave will show up as an upside-down V--with the tip of the V pointing northward--inverted in a satellite shot.
Waves with their lower pressures and convergence (along with other properties like vorticity changes in them) are typical seeds for tropical cyclones (which you probably already knew).
WJS3
Not a dumb question at all. A tropical wave is kind of "kink" in the normal easterly flow (it gets waaaayyyy more complicated than that, but let's stick with that description for now).
Anyway, the "kink" in a tropical wave represents lower pressures that point poleward (north, in the northern hemisphere). When we analyze a trropical wave in imagery, then, there's often an associated curvature ("kink") in the cloud field that points toward the north. A sharp wave will show up as an upside-down V--with the tip of the V pointing northward--inverted in a satellite shot.
Waves with their lower pressures and convergence (along with other properties like vorticity changes in them) are typical seeds for tropical cyclones (which you probably already knew).
WJS3
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- 'CaneFreak
- Category 5
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- Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
- Location: New Bern, NC
[quote="wjs3"]beachbum:
Not a dumb question at all. A tropical wave is kind of "kink" in the normal easterly flow (it gets waaaayyyy more complicated than that, but let's stick with that description for now).
Anyway, the "kink" in a tropical wave represents lower pressures that point poleward (north, in the northern hemisphere). When we analyze a trropical wave in imagery, then, there's often an associated curvature ("kink") in the cloud field that points toward the north. A sharp wave will show up as an upside-down V--with the tip of the V pointing northward--inverted in a satellite shot.
Waves with their lower pressures and convergence (along with other properties like vorticity changes in them) are typical seeds for tropical cyclones (which you probably already knew).
WJS3[/quote]
Good explanation...
Not a dumb question at all. A tropical wave is kind of "kink" in the normal easterly flow (it gets waaaayyyy more complicated than that, but let's stick with that description for now).
Anyway, the "kink" in a tropical wave represents lower pressures that point poleward (north, in the northern hemisphere). When we analyze a trropical wave in imagery, then, there's often an associated curvature ("kink") in the cloud field that points toward the north. A sharp wave will show up as an upside-down V--with the tip of the V pointing northward--inverted in a satellite shot.
Waves with their lower pressures and convergence (along with other properties like vorticity changes in them) are typical seeds for tropical cyclones (which you probably already knew).
WJS3[/quote]
Good explanation...
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:The only difference from Emily is that Emily formed a bit further east:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png
We may have less warning with this one.
I saw that as well. Is it north enough to form? Or could it pull a Ivan or something if it's indeed too south. I'm not sure but I think it's going north slowly by itself.
Here is the 72 hour forecast for the wave...and what is that behind it! Another wave? And behind that one...Another! What is this? A wave attack in the Caribbean? This could be a long season...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
This season is getting more and more like 2005 IMO. What's next? If the wave train starts this early then who knows what will happen. July 2005 comes to mind once again.
If it were 6 weeks from now I'd be much more concerned, but it's not, it's June 11th.
Tropical Cyclones don't care about dates

It's sad to see the constant hype for unformed systems. Nothing more than a tropical wave and it's already compared to Emily, which was one of the most unique storms in tropical history.
How was Emily one of the most unique? it being a category 5 in July?
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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
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I do not think this will reach Cat. 5 (it being still June). But if this for some reason did get going and was far enough north with PERFECT conditions...a Cat. 2/3 would be possible IMO.
BTW: There has been a Cat. 4 in June. Hurricane Audrey hit the TX/LA border back in the 50s and killed over 500 people!
BTW: There has been a Cat. 4 in June. Hurricane Audrey hit the TX/LA border back in the 50s and killed over 500 people!

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- cycloneye
- Admin
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ABNT20 KNHC 120306
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO... ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY
FLORIDA.
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
Well wave is mentioned at TWO.But no development.
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- beachbum_al
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