NAM/WRF model
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Scorpion
NAM/WRF model
The NAM/WRF model was latching onto a system forming in the northwest Caribbean over a week ago. And sure enough, we got Alberto. Remember my 00z NAM thread? That was a week ago. It showed a low in the Yucatan Channel. I think this model which is operational tomorrow will be pretty good this hurricane season in pointing out TC genesis.
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CHRISTY
Re: NAM/WRF model
Scorpion wrote:The NAM/WRF model was latching onto a system forming in the northwest Caribbean over a week ago. And sure enough, we got Alberto. Remember my 00z NAM thread? That was a week ago. It showed a low in the Yucatan Channel. I think this model which is operational tomorrow will be pretty good this hurricane season in pointing out TC genesis.
i agree scorpion it was picking up on it quite soon.
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cmdebbie
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Re: NAM/WRF model
Scorpion wrote:The NAM/WRF model was latching onto a system forming in the northwest Caribbean over a week ago. And sure enough, we got Alberto. Remember my 00z NAM thread? That was a week ago. It showed a low in the Yucatan Channel. I think this model which is operational tomorrow will be pretty good this hurricane season in pointing out TC genesis.
If I am not mistaken, I think it had it going into Florida (around the Big Bend area) before a lot of models were even recognizing it too. I would say that is pretty darn good!
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WeatherDudeB
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KFDM Meteorologist
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Audrey2Katrina
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If I am not mistaken, I think it had it going into Florida (around the Big Bend area) before a lot of models were even recognizing it too. I would say that is pretty darn good!
I saw a NAM model yesterday showing it coming straight North to SE La. but I haven't seen it's latest.
A2K
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cmdebbie
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I saw a NAM model yesterday showing it coming straight North to SE La. but I haven't seen it's latest.
A2K
I also have not seen the latest. I just thought it was interesting that way back when, it showed Florida. That would be really interesting if it now showed La. Things that make you go hmmmm.
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HurricaneHunter914
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Personally I think the NAM/WRF has actually done a good job so far, though I doubt that lucky guessing will continue.
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Has it over the Florida Panhandle on the 00Z run. Don't use the NAM for Tropical systems on forecast movement.
Okay, so they moved it slightly east. Point taken.
A2K
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The WRF-NMM model will replace the Eta model starting at 12UTC on June 13th (Tuesday morning). The name will stay the same (it'll still be the NAM), but the package is moving from the NAM-Eta to the NAM-WRF (previously known as the parallel-NAM). The WRF (all iterations as far as I know) is quite new, so there is not much in the way of a forecast archive on which we can perform any sort of detailed verification analysis. It is important to realize that there are a bunch of WRF variants being run by universities, NCEP, and other entities. So, if you want to refer to a WRF solution, please make sure to cite the source (e.g. 12km NAM-WRF NCEP run, which is, IIRC, based on the WRF-NMM core). This will prevent confusion when someone else looks at an 8km WRF-ARW run and can't figure out why he's not seeing what someone else is seeing. 
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>>The NAM/WRF model was latching onto a system forming in the northwest Caribbean over a week ago. And sure enough, we got Alberto. Remember my 00z NAM thread? That was a week ago. It showed a low in the Yucatan Channel. I think this model which is operational tomorrow will be pretty good this hurricane season in pointing out TC genesis.
Don't forget the Canadian. Both did sniff out this storm. The ETA was okay for precipitation fields, but other than those, it wasn't that great. It may be better, but just because its new configuration, the WRF, found Alberto doesn't mean that it will do anything with the B, C or D storm. It's all wait and see. Just like the Canadian - its ensembles are fine to look at, and it does get CONUS weather right sometimes, but it's not a tropical model. Sometimes it senses out low pressure, but it generally is discounted.
Steve
Don't forget the Canadian. Both did sniff out this storm. The ETA was okay for precipitation fields, but other than those, it wasn't that great. It may be better, but just because its new configuration, the WRF, found Alberto doesn't mean that it will do anything with the B, C or D storm. It's all wait and see. Just like the Canadian - its ensembles are fine to look at, and it does get CONUS weather right sometimes, but it's not a tropical model. Sometimes it senses out low pressure, but it generally is discounted.
Steve
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