Tropical Storm Alberto

Thunder44 · #1181 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:25 am

I'm seeing some feeder bands developing on the south side of this big blob too. This really looks like an organizing trend. Although there still seems to be some shear on the SW side as the blow up of convection can't seem to make much further west of the center. The center seems to be on the SW edge of thuderstorms, from looking at IR-2 imagery.

I would be more concern today for this storm becoming a minimal hurricane before making landfall. It will be another 24 hours or so before this storm even makes close to the coast.

HurricaneHunter914 · #1182 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:28 am

A hurricane from Alberto can easily happen. Water Temps can definitly support a minimal hurricane as the shear and dry air start to back off from Alberto.

#1183 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:36 am

ronjon · #1184 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:38 am

Ok, now I'm getting concerned - is this thing lazarus or what? Looking at the IR, it now looks like the LLC has tucked itself underneath the heavy convection to the NE of the old location and the new center would be east of the forecasted NHC points. Its hard with the IR, but it wouldn't surprise me if the center is relocated next advisory. What this means is scary - ole AL could get stronger and I hope it doesn't reach hurricane status.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

HurricaneHunter914 · #1185 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:40 am

A relocation of the center under the convection would mean bad news for FL, but luckily shear is helping us out.

Grease Monkey · #1186 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:42 am

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... mated.html
It definitely looks like it centered itself much better.

Thunder44 · #1187 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:42 am

You can see the center way out on NWS Tampa Radar:

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... ktbw.shtml

HurricaneHunter914 · #1188 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:43 am

HURAKAN wrote:

If Alberto can relocate its center into the middle of that blob, we've got an instant hurricane.

Grease Monkey · #1189 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:47 am

What are the SST's like in the NE gulf?

#1190 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:49 am

Everyday since the storm formed a lot of people have been giving their opinion on what will happen with the storm. So far, the NHC has been right and most of people's predictions have been wrong. We always value your opinions and you have the right to post them, nevertheless, if you don't have hard evidence to go against the NHC's forecast, please keep it to yourself. Moreover, a message from Alberto, "Por favor, no me sigan matando cada noche," "Please, don't continue killing me every night."

HurricaneHunter914 · #1191 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:49 am

Right now around 83 degrees.
http://www.weather.com/maps/geography/o ... large.html

Stratusxpeye · #1192 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:50 am

we have 2 tornadoes on the ground in my area here. Sarasota and central hardee countys.

#1193 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:51 am

At this point, the shear is going to start meaning less and less as long as convection can continue to fire. It is the type os situation that if the center stays under the convection, then I see every reason why this will become a minimal hurricane before landfall. It is all up to the convection. The latest large range radar from Tampa is hiniting at an eyewall.

#1194 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:51 am

Stratusxpeye wrote:we have 2 tornadoes on the ground in my area here. Sarasota and central hardee countys.

Be careful!!!

HurricaneHunter914 · #1195 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:52 am

You stay safe over there Stratusxpeye, having one tornado in your area is bad, two tornadoes is DANGEROUS.

Grease Monkey · #1196 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:53 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Right now around 83 degrees.
http://www.weather.com/maps/geography/o ... large.html

Higher than I thought. I was thinking just barely hitting 80.

HurricaneHunter914 · #1197 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:54 am

They've been in the mid-80s ever since June started.

#1198 Postby **Cookiely** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:55 am

Alberto doesn't seem to mind the dry air and shear. Why? It certainly does look much stronger.

#1199 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:55 am

drezee wrote:At this point, the shear is going to start meaning less and less as long as convection can continue to fire. It is the type os situation that if the center stays under the convection, then I see every reason why this will become a minimal hurricane before landfall. It is all up to the convection. The latest large range radar from Tampa is hiniting at an eyewall.

This is a prime example of why you don't turn your back on a system in the GOM, regardless of current conditions. If it has time over the water...it has time to explosively develop....even in June!

HurricaneHunter914 · #1200 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:02 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Cloud Tops have warmed very, very, very slightly there were more gray areas in the center of the blob earlier.

Tropical Storm Alberto

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