MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...EXTREME NERN TN...NWRN THROUGH E CNTRL NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111707Z - 111900Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   OF SWRN VA...NERN TN AND NWRN NC. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD
   SEWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NC. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY
   MID AFTERNOON.
   
   A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NC NWWD THROUGH SWRN VA.
   LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
   SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. LATEST
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
   THIS REGION BY 18Z-19Z. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD IN VICINITY OF
   FRONT AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
   FRONT IS LOCATED ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A BELT OF STRONGER 40 TO 50 KT
   WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
   BOWING SEGMENTS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...MRX...
   
   35897689 35167691 34647806 34837892 35578010 36618266
   37318099 36407823

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE...ERN CO AND FAR NERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111851Z - 112115Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM FAR NERN
   NM NWD INTO SERN WY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS OF NERN
   CO/SERN WY BY 21Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF SERN
   WY SWD INTO NERN NM. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
   IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CINH
   REMAINING OVER THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE...AND AS A RESULT
   CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD FROM THE ERN SLOPES
   INTO THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH 40+ T/TD SPREADS....MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND
   500 J/KG AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG / INDICATES THAT THE
   STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS OVER
   MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND BACKED
   LOW LEVEL FLOW WERE EVIDENT PER SFC AND REGIONAL PROFILER DATA OVER
   THE FRONT RANGE OF FAR NRN CO/SERN WY. CONSEQUENT GREATER VERTICAL
   SHEAR IN THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
   GREATER UPDRAFT ROTATION POTENTIAL AND INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   FURTHER EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...SEVERAL MORE HRS OF HEATING WILL
   BE NECESSARY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ERN CO AND SERN WY AS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCINH
   REMAINS AT 18Z. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
   FOR OTHER SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE FRONT
   RANGE WILL BE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
   JUST SOUTH OF AKO WNWWD TO A MESOLOW OVER SRN WELD COUNTY IN NERN CO
   AND ALONG A LEE TROUGH ORIENTED E-W NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE OVER
   SERN WY/FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
   
   41350265 42480306 42300529 40620572 39950562 38240545
   37080521 36440488 36610299 38490276 39560274

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NWRN TX...SERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR
   SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111958Z - 112230Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER THE
   SOUTH PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS REGION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
   DEVELOP OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR WCENTRAL OK IN THE NEXT FEW
   HRS. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED AND
   MARGINAL...SO A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
   SOUTH PLAINS REGION OF WRN TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG A SW-NE
   ORIENTED SFC TROUGH AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NM
   WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED AND MODEST
   COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
   SFC CONVERGENCE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARDS A SFC
   LOW CENTER OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN OK. LARGE BOUNDARY
   LAYER T/TD SPREADS SUPPORTING INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS...HIGH DCAPE
   VALUES /1500-2000 J/KG/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES 500-1000
   J/KG...SUGGEST THAT DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   TSTMS. OVERALL WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
   WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE AND LIMITED DURATION FOR ANY SINGLE CELL
   LIFESPAN.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   35370050 34340116 33610299 33120298 32400253 32080226
   32370123 34289974 35179950

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...FAR NERN NM... OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK
   AND SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 112147Z - 120015Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO WILL LIKELY TRACK
   SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF SERN CO/NERN NM IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO ALONG A
   STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SWRN KS/SERN CO. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT
   ACROSS THE AREA APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WAS SUPPORTING BACKED LOW LEVEL
   FLOW ACROSS THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND RATON RIDGE AREA. DESPITE
   MARGINAL MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THE AREA...15 KTS AT 500
   MB...THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS SUPPORTING AROUND 30 KTS OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SUFFICIENT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY GIVEN MODEST
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER NERN NM...AND NORTH OF THIS STORM IN
   THE PUB AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH CONTINUED MODERATE UPSLOPE
   FLOW. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR A DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER
   SHOULD FAVOR MARGINALLY SVR WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. FURTHER
   EAST...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG STATIONARY
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WW 464 SEWD INTO SWRN KS /JUST NORTH OF
   BUFFALO OK/ AS FOCUSED SFC CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH ASCENT FROM
   UPPER WAVE MOVING OUT OF NM AND WEAKENING CINH. THE OVERALL
   INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS IN THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL
   ENOUGH THAT ORGANIZED SVR THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   39020210 38880462 38040465 36900445 36270434 36350317
   36460208 36560087 36879938 37299920 37470144

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0539 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN SD...AND NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464...
   
   VALID 112239Z - 120045Z
   
   CONTINUE ALL OF WW 464. CONVECTION WAS INTENSIFYING OVER THE ERN
   WY/CO FRONT RANGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN POSING A SEVERE THREAT
   IN THE NEXT HR OR SO.
   
   TSTMS WERE INTENSIFYING OVER THE DEN AREA NWD TO NEAR CYS...AND
   ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO POSE A SVR THREAT IN THE NEXT HR OR SO AS
   IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 20 W
   KIMBALL NEB TO 20 W OF AKRON COLO. PRIND ARE THAT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
   LCL HEIGHTS...DUE TO 30-35 DEG F T/TD SPREADS...WILL PRECLUDE MORE
   THAN A VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. ANY BRIEF/ISOLATED
   TORNADO IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH CONVECTION THAT MOVES ALONG OR
   CROSSES THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR/VORTICITY WILL BE ENHANCED.
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE A FEW COUNTIES NORTH OF WW 464 AS
   LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
   DESTABILIZATION INTO ECENTRAL WY/SWRN SD...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   42990315 44210359 43810542 42840513 39090396 39100217
   41830281

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 112301Z - 120100Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NRN OK BY
   00Z. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DISORGANIZED THAT
   A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR GAG EWD TO NEAR SWO. VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
   HAVE WEAKENED THE CINH SUFFICIENTLY THAT WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE
   /INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS/ AND
   APPROACHING UPPER JET...SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
   00Z. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL STORM
   ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL...BUT INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS /1500-2000
   J/KG OF DCAPE/ ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND
   1500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
   36359652 36519841 36549948 36279995 36069995 35799980
   35639923 35749645

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463...
   
   VALID 112314Z - 120045Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.  ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
   ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH
   CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT THROUGH
   01-02Z.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY SLOWLY
   FALL BELOW 90F AHEAD OF OUTFLOW...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS UNTIL ACTIVITY PROGRESSES
   INTO COOLER MARINE LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS
   EVENING.
   
   BETTER HAIL POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
   ON NOSE OF STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WARMING...WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH
   OF FAYETTEVILLE NC...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  AS BOUNDARY
   LAYER OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT COOLS FROM THE MID
   90S...LARGE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES STABILIZE BY 01-02Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   36498001 36377917 36047804 35667775 35207774 34457910
   34447965 34548027 34598092 34798129 35328089 35828059
   36188045

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID  AND NWRN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 112355Z - 120230Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD AROUND
   25 KTS ACROSS SRN/SERN ID...EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN WY BEFORE WEAKENING
   THIS EVENING.
   
   SVR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE WRN EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS
   THAT EXTENDS DOWN THE MAGIC/SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN ID. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID
   LEVEL WINDS /40-45 KTS/ ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM
   500-1000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SVR THREAT WITH THE ONGOING
   TSTMS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SNAKE
   RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO NWRN WY. RELATIVELY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SVR WIND/HAIL AND THUS A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...PIH...BOI...
   
   43710873 44720926 44621129 42931475 42081444 42681097
   42960996

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0712 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465...
   
   VALID 120012Z - 120145Z
   
   CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
   WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   CLUSTER OF STORMS...PERHAPS SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
   CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG SEASONABLY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH 02-03Z.  RELATIVELY
   MODERATE SURFACE HEATING ON WARM SIDE OF BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED
   DESTABILIZATION BENEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
   AND...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STABILIZE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...VIGOR OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
   UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC 30+ KT MID-LEVEL
   FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE STORM MOTIONS FOR CONTINUING
   MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
   
   FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A BIT
   SLOWER TO STABILIZE ON NOSE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS WESTERN
   KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 2000 J/KG COULD STILL
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL...AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT NEAR/WEST OF NASHVILLE BY 02Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   37658396 37188262 36248418 35748660 35758769 36208860
   36928787 37078627 37458465

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464...
   
   VALID 120047Z - 120245Z
   
   CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH WW 464 OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR
   STORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE INITIAL
   ACTIVITY /ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM CYS SWD TO NEAR DEN/ AND THUS
   ALL OF WW 464 SHOULD REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
   MORE STABLE AIRMASS JUST EAST OF WW 464 /AS NOTED BY THE 00Z LBF
   SOUNDING/ AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN MOSTLY IN WW 464 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND A NEW WW EAST OF
   WW 464 IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z.
   
   SUPERCELL OVER SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTY SHOWED SIGNS OF STRONG LOW-MID
   LEVEL ROTATION AS IT INTERACTED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LAST
   HR. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ROTATION HAS WEAKENED AND
   THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS THE
   BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD INTO SERN WY. AS THIS BOUNDARY
   CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD...IT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SVR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT AND/OR INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS OVER SERN WY AND NERN
   CO. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER ADAMS AND SERN
   WELD COUNTIES THAT HAS EXHIBITED MODEST ROTATION CHARACTERISTICS
   WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND MAY POSE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT AS IT
   INTERACTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 0100Z-0230Z ACROSS ERN
   ADAMS/SRN MORGAN COUNTIES.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   42840318 42840502 39030394 39110213 40920260

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NCNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 120603Z - 120730Z
   
   TSTMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND PERHAPS EXTREME NCNTRL OK
   THROUGH 09Z.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RNFL WILL BE LIKELY...BUT A
   CONVECTIVE WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV ROTATING EWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND
   WILL BE ENHANCING THE LLJ THIS MORNING.  LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
   THAT A WEAK H85 JET WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE SLY THROUGH ABOUT
   09Z.  NOSE OF THIS JET WILL BE IMPINGING ON AN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE
   SITUATED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM
   ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION N
   OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER OF AROUND 35 KTS AND
   MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG SUGGEST THAT INITIAL STORMS MAY BECOME
   BRIEFLY ORGANIZED WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  BUT...AS MORE STORMS
   FORM...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
   
   ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT ESEWD INTO EXTREME NCNTRL/NERN OK AND SERN KS
   THROUGH 12Z...WHILE STRONGER STORMS FAVOR THE WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
   BANDS ACROSS SCNTRL KS.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   38369803 37839651 37429603 36949594 36699683 37169897
   38039953 38459899

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL FL COAST
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 120938Z - 121115Z
   
   ISOLD WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORE FROM
   NEAR FORT MYERS NWD TO TAMPA BAY AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM.
   
   CONVERGENCE BAND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED JUST OFF THE WCOAST THIS
   MORNING...POSSIBLY AUGMENTED BY A WEAK LAND BREEZE.  SATL AND TAMPA
   RADAR SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE BAND.  TPA
   VWP EXHIBITS ABOUT 30 KTS OF SFC-1KM SHEAR FOR A STORM MOTION 200/14
   KTS.  IN FACT...A COUPLE OF TSTMS OFFSHORE HAVE SHOWN LOW-LEVEL
   ROTATION.
   
   HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
   IMMEDIATE COAST FROM FORT MEYERS NWD TO TAMPA BAY...WITH EVEN HIGHER
   WATERSPOUT RISKS.  THE TORNADO THREAT PROBABLY WILL REMAIN CONFINED
   TO THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...
   
   28048324 28308272 27618186 26388176 26018188 26278242

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121245Z - 121415Z
   
   TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREATS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING
   HOURS AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN AN HOUR OR TWO.
   
   12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT ACROSS KTPA/KMLB. S OF THIS
   FRONT...TROPICAL AIR MASS EXISTS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
   70S.  12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED NO CINH AND 3800 J/KG MUCAPE.  THIS
   SUGGESTS THAT AS HEATING COMMENCES...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   SRN FL AND MOVE NNWWD INTO CNTRL FL.  HIGHER 0-1KM SRH VALUES EXIST
   VCNTY THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER MOST OF CNTRL
   AND SRN FL THROUGH THE MORNING AS ALBERTO MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE
   WCOAST. AS A RESULT...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE AFTN AND ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS
   OF THE STATE.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   27528282 28388271 28648070 28108035 26597973 25688007
   25548189

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1009 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NC/SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121509Z - 121715Z
   
   MONITORING PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL NC AND NRN SC FOR POSSIBLE WW BY
   17-18Z.
   
   AT 15Z...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER...BUT A
   BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT
   AND EXTENDED NEAR A LINE FROM HKY TO FAY AND EWN. WEAK ELEVATED
   CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AROUND RDU...LIKELY
   IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN
   VA/NC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL HAVE TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES
   NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP
   IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP...MLCAPES
   BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS THROUGH
   THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT BANDS OF STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE
   AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..IMY.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   35798136 36248032 35857874 35927581 35277570 33757895
   34228103 35068188

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 466...
   
   VALID 121636Z - 121830Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SWRN FL PENINSULA.
   
   THE TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST HOUR AS
   THE MORE CELLULAR STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...THE VAD WIND
   PROFILE AT TAMPA BAY SHOWS THE LOW SHEAR...1 KM SHEAR NEAR 4O KT
   ...REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION WAS
   CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE WEST CENTRAL FL COAST...IN THE NERN
   QUADRANT OF ALBERTO. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ONSHORE THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM NEAR SRQ TO PIE. ALSO...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A
   WEAK THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NORTH OF A DAB-FMY LINE.
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE RESULTING
   IN STRONGER INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THIS MAY AID
   IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH/POSSIBLE TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..IMY.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   29178327 29458104 28468031 26418085 25548133 25888231
   27678311

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ORE/WA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121804Z - 122000Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY SLOWLY
   INTENSIFY AND BEGIN POSING A SEVERE THREAT BEFORE 21Z AS THEY MOVE
   INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL ORE/SCENTRAL WA. A WW MAY BE NEED
   OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 21Z.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
   CASCADES OF ORE...WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS
   OCCURRED. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
   ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HRS...AND SOME OF THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD INTO
   THESE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR /AREA WILL RESIDE ALONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS/ WILL
   SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND THREAT FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN MODEST
   INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
   
   FURTHER EAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF ERN ORE/SERN
   WA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF NERN ORE/ERN
   WA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   SCENTRAL ORE/NERN CA. THESE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND
   ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...THUS DELAYING ISOLATED SVR TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER WITH TIME IT IS
   EXPECTED THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES SHOULD POSE A SVR THREAT TO THIS REGION
   AFTER 21Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...
   
   45542128 43312219 42242180 42112147 42582010 44431853
   45251792 47451720 48181750 48481977 46512093

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR NE NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121805Z - 122000Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1
   TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING IN THE
   SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE
   FRONT RANGE. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
   INTO THE PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTER MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F. IN
   ADDITION...REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW STRONGLY VEERING WIND SHEAR
   PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE STORMS
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP IN AND
   NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0 C/KM
   GENERALLY WEST OF I-25. THIS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
   GREATEST AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER PEAKS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
   ADJACENT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SUPERCELLS THAT
   DEVELOP. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AN
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   36290327 36180449 36930484 37660494 38790496 39280456
   39110344 37610306

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ID PANHANDLE...FAR NERN WA/NWRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121916Z - 122145Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP EITHER NORTH OF OR EMBEDDED IN ADVANCING
   CLOUD SHIELD MOVING ACROSS SERN WA/NERN ORE. OVERALL SVR THREAT
   LOOKS MARGINAL THROUGH 22Z...AND A WW IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THEN.
   
   AIRMASS OVER NERN WA...NRN ID PANHANDLE AND NWRN MT WILL LIKELY SEE
   SLOW DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS MID/HIGH LEVEL
   CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
   ORE. EMBEDDED ELEVATED CELLS WITHIN THIS CLOUD MASS HAVE SHOWN BRIEF
   SIGNS OF INCREASING IN THE LAST HOUR...BUT THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
   STRONG MID LEVEL SHEAR AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
   AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A MODIFIED 12Z OTX SOUNDING
   AND RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
   FROM 78-80 DEG IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE REMAINS A SHORT WINDOW
   THAT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NERN WA/NRN ID PANHANDLE AND FAR
   NWRN MT BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD OFFSET HEATING FOR
   SEVERAL HRS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY
   BE VERY ISOLATED. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE MAIN SVR THREAT WILL
   DEVELOP AFTER THE INITIAL CLOUD MASS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA /AHEAD
   OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/ WHEN DESTABILIZATION INCREASES
   AFTER 22Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED AFTER THAT TIME.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT...
   
   48941614 48881865 48571927 46911945 46521900 46251781
   46731541 47361410 48861406

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121958Z - 122130Z
   
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX AND THE
   TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
   WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY.
   
   STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDING WWD ACROSS WEST TX TO NEAR CLOVIS NM. ALTHOUGH SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S F...THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
   A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
   AS SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS 700-500 MB LIFTED INDEX. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS BUT SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EXPANDS
   ACROSS THE WEST TX CAPROCK. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE HIGH-BASED STORMS
   WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
   
   33470168 33660269 34320315 35820302 36380257 36580152
   35880063 34610061 33850102

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SC...NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467...
   
   VALID 122034Z - 122200Z
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOW A
   LARGE MCS ONGOING ACROSS NRN SC AND SRN NC. THE STRONGER CELLS
   WITHIN THE MCS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM NEAR GREENVILLE SC TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE
   NC. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F AND
   MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST COAST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   WILL SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH
   VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH
   THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
   
   34107762 33788012 33868159 34038262 34558287 35228219
   35338010 35627815 35597635 34787602