TS Alberto Recon Reports

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#161 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:35 am

Numbers indicate, no doubt about it being a solid TS. At least in the current quad.
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#162 Postby thunderchief » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:38 am

Image
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#163 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:39 am



Where's the link to this? Looks like a software program.
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#164 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:40 am

972
SXXX50 KNHC 121236
AF305 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 12 KNHC
1228. 2524N 08545W 00306 5041 203 044 246 232 047 00277 0000000000
1229 2523N 08544W 00304 5041 203 043 248 232 045 00275 0000000000
1229. 2522N 08543W 00306 5041 202 040 248 236 042 00277 0000000000
1230 2521N 08542W 00305 5041 201 040 246 240 041 00276 0000000000
1230. 2520N 08541W 00306 5040 201 043 246 236 044 00278 0000000000
1231 2519N 08540W 00304 5040 196 041 236 236 043 00277 0000000000
1231. 2518N 08539W 00304 5040 197 044 232 232 046 00277 0000000000
1232 2517N 08538W 00305 5039 197 044 242 242 045 00278 0000000000
1232. 2516N 08537W 00304 5037 196 042 242 240 043 00279 0000000000
1233 2517N 08535W 00306 5037 192 041 238 238 042 00281 0000000000
1233. 2519N 08535W 00304 5038 188 041 240 240 042 00278 0000000000
1234 2521N 08535W 00305 5039 187 044 242 240 045 00278 0000000000
1234. 2522N 08535W 00304 5040 187 045 240 240 046 00276 0000000000
1235 2524N 08535W 00304 5041 189 043 236 236 045 00275 0000000000
1235. 2526N 08535W 00306 5041 190 043 240 238 045 00277 0000000000
1236 2528N 08535W 00304 5042 190 044 242 234 046 00274 0000000000
1236. 2530N 08535W 00305 5042 189 046 242 232 047 00275 0000000000
1237 2532N 08535W 00306 5042 188 047 244 234 048 00276 0000000000
1237. 2534N 08535W 00303 5043 189 045 242 242 046 00273 0000000000
1238 2536N 08534W 00305 5044 189 044 240 240 045 00273 0000000000
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#165 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:43 am

Image

Heading toward the strongest quad. Expect to see FL winds around 60 knots once we get there.
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#166 Postby thunderchief » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:47 am

mtm, that is a program I am working on it. When it is done, I will make it publically available.
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#167 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:51 am

mtm4319 wrote:Image

Heading toward the strongest quad. Expect to see FL winds around 60 knots once we get there.


I think the center will have to be revised, I don't see any signs of circulation where the current "center" is.
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#168 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:52 am

New highest flight-level wind:

Image
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#169 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:52 am

582
SXXX50 KNHC 121246
AF305 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 13 KNHC
1238. 2538N 08534W 00305 5044 189 043 240 240 044 00273 0000000000
1239 2540N 08534W 00305 5045 189 044 240 240 046 00272 0000000000
1239. 2542N 08534W 00305 5046 191 046 242 240 047 00272 0000000000
1240 2544N 08534W 00305 5047 192 048 244 236 048 00270 0000000000
1240. 2546N 08533W 00304 5048 190 045 244 240 046 00268 0000000000
1241 2548N 08533W 00306 5048 189 044 244 242 046 00270 0000000000
1241. 2550N 08533W 00304 5049 190 046 246 240 047 00267 0000000000
1242 2552N 08533W 00306 5049 191 047 244 240 047 00269 0000000000
1242. 2554N 08533W 00305 5050 190 049 244 242 049 00267 0000000000
1243 2555N 08533W 00305 5052 188 049 242 242 051 00265 0000000000
1243. 2557N 08532W 00305 5053 190 048 242 242 048 00264 0000000000
1244 2559N 08532W 00306 5053 188 049 242 242 051 00265 0000000000
1244. 2601N 08531W 00304 5054 186 046 242 242 047 00261 0000000000
1245 2603N 08531W 00305 5055 188 049 242 240 050 00262 0000000000
1245. 2605N 08530W 00305 5055 188 050 242 240 052 00262 0000000000
1246 2607N 08529W 00305 5055 189 051 240 240 051 00262 0000000000
1246. 2609N 08528W 00306 5056 188 055 240 238 056 00263 0000000000
1247 2611N 08528W 00302 5058 181 051 240 240 052 00257 0000000000
1247. 2612N 08527W 00305 5060 179 054 240 240 055 00258 0000000000
1248 2614N 08526W 00305 5060 178 054 230 230 054 00257 0000000000
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#170 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:54 am

There are heading into the deepest convection now and the NE Quad. I think we will find a 60-65mph TS.
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#171 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:57 am

Already? That would increase the chances of this becoming a hurricane.
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#172 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:58 am

not with the convection being sheared off again. The shear needs to decrease a little more for this to become a hurricane. Maybe a strong TS though
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#173 Postby Grease Monkey » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:58 am

I'm suprised that the weather channel just recently stated that it's not going to become a hurricane.
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#174 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:59 am

I would be very surprised if this became a hurricane. Looking at the current level of organization I would say that is very unlikely. The convection needs to completely cover the LLC for there to even be a chance.
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#175 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:00 am

Well lets see what Mother Nature has in store for TS Alberto.
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#176 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:01 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Though shear is actually increasing over the system.
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#177 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:01 am

742
SXXX50 KNHC 121256
AF305 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 14 KNHC
1248. 2616N 08525W 00303 5061 174 051 230 230 052 00255 0000000000
1249 2618N 08525W 00307 5062 173 050 218 218 051 00258 0000000000
1249. 2620N 08526W 00303 5062 174 049 204 204 049 00254 0000000000
1250 2622N 08526W 00306 5062 176 049 200 200 051 00256 0000000100
1250. 2624N 08526W 00303 5064 175 050 200 200 050 00251 0000000100
1251 2626N 08527W 00306 5063 175 045 200 200 050 00255 0000000100
1251. 2628N 08527W 00306 5061 178 044 200 200 044 00258 0000000100
1252 2630N 08528W 00304 5061 190 043 198 198 046 00256 0000000100
1252. 2632N 08528W 00306 5064 195 054 190 190 057 00255 0000000100
1253 2633N 08528W 00303 5067 193 060 186 186 061 00249 0000000100
1253. 2635N 08529W 00307 5068 192 058 196 196 059 00251 0000000100
1254 2637N 08529W 00305 5068 187 058 216 216 059 00249 0000000000
1254. 2639N 08529W 00303 5069 189 059 204 204 062 00246 0000000000
1255 2642N 08529W 00306 5069 190 061 200 200 063 00248 0000000000
1255. 2644N 08530W 00303 5070 190 059 194 194 059 00246 0000000000
1256 2646N 08530W 00304 5069 194 058 194 194 059 00247 0000000100
1256. 2648N 08530W 00307 5068 197 045 198 198 053 00251 0000000100
1257 2649N 08530W 00307 5070 197 043 202 202 045 00248 0000000100
1257. 2651N 08529W 00302 5071 196 041 200 200 045 00243 0000000100
1258 2653N 08529W 00305 5075 189 045 198 198 046 00242 0000000100
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#178 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:02 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I would be very surprised if this became a hurricane. Looking at the current level of organization I would say that is very unlikely. The convection needs to completely cover the LLC for there to even be a chance.


I agree, Alberto is still poorly organized and looking at the latest visible loop the center is extremely exposed due to shear. He still has a lot of water to go over before landfall so things could change.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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#179 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:02 am

Image

63 knots FL = 48 knots surface? Maybe they'll round up to 50.
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#180 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:03 am

I might faint. That's hurricane status.
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