TS Alberto Recon Reports

[beachbum_al]

This is the storm despite the odds that keeps on going. Amazing. So what are the chances that it is going toward the FL panhandle...near Tallahassee. I just got up and I am a little behind on everything.

[thunderchief]

[Lowpressure]

I might faint. That's hurricane status.

No, it is not Hurricane status, but stronger than I expected to see.

[Thunder44]

I would be very surprised if this became a hurricane. Looking at the current level of organization I would say that is very unlikely. The convection needs to completely cover the LLC for there to even be a chance.

I agree, Alberto is still poorly organized and looking at the latest visible loop the center is extremely exposed due to shear. He still has a lot of water to go over before landfall so things could change.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

The center is hardly exposed and is much better organzied then yesterday. It is on the western edge of the convection. You are looking at bunch of high clouds.

Take a close up loop here: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

I might faint. That's hurricane status.

No, it is not Hurricane status, but stronger than I expected to see.

But I just calculated it and 63 kts=73 mph.

[stormtruth]

I might faint. That's hurricane status.

No, it is not Hurricane status, but stronger than I expected to see.

But I just calculated it and 63 kts=73 mph.

Don't you need to reduce by 10% first?

[Thunder44]

I might faint. That's hurricane status.

No, it is not Hurricane status, but stronger than I expected to see.

But I just calculated it and 63 kts=73 mph.

That is at flight level. Reduce that by 80% for the surface.

[mtm4319]

I might faint. That's hurricane status.

No, it is not Hurricane status, but stronger than I expected to see.

But I just calculated it and 63 kts=73 mph.

You aren't making the necessary downward adjustment due to these being flight-level winds. The correct multiplier, IIRC, is 75%. That means 63kts --> 47.25knots (or 54mph). If it's 80%, then 63 knots at flight level means 50 knots at surface = 58mph.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I never heard about that part, I'm not even sure if you reduce first.

[P.K.]

But I just calculated it and 63 kts=73 mph.

Hurricane status starts at 64kts anyway so even if it was that at the surface it wouldn't be a hurricane.

[thunderchief]

I would call this a 50-55kt TS, leaning towards the 50 since the LLC is exposed a bit. Definetly better than yesterday though.

[cycloneye]

777
SXXX50 KNHC 121306
AF305 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 15 KNHC
1258. 2655N 08529W 00305 5077 181 050 198 198 054 00240 0000000100
1259 2657N 08529W 00349 5076 180 049 194 194 051 00286 0000000100
1259. 2659N 08529W 00522 5069 181 050 188 188 053 00470 0000000100
1300 2701N 08529W 00689 5057 184 047 190 190 050 00652 0000000000
1300. 2703N 08529W 00759 5052 182 050 204 204 051 00727 0000000000
1301 2705N 08529W 00763 5052 177 052 204 204 055 00730 0000000000
1301. 2707N 08529W 00757 5055 176 057 186 186 059 00722 0000000000
1302 2709N 08530W 00762 5052 173 053 202 202 057 00730 0000000000
1302. 2711N 08530W 00766 5054 172 051 210 210 053 00732 0000000000
1303 2713N 08530W 00782 5053 172 056 206 206 058 00749 0000000000
1303. 2716N 08530W 00796 5052 169 060 200 200 062 00764 0000000000
1304 2718N 08530W 00771 5049 165 062 198 198 063 00742 0000000000
1304. 2720N 08530W 00759 5046 160 058 202 202 060 00732 0000000000
1305 2721N 08529W 00766 5044 161 055 198 198 057 00741 0000000000
1305. 2723N 08528W 00766 5045 154 060 182 182 065 00741 0000000000
1306 2724N 08527W 00761 5046 151 066 178 178 068 00734 0000000100
1306. 2725N 08525W 00758 5043 150 061 176 176 065 00735 0000000100
1307 2727N 08525W 00762 5040 139 058 170 170 061 00742 0000000100
1307. 2729N 08525W 00764 5039 133 059 168 168 059 00745 0000000100
1308 2731N 08524W 00760 5038 125 059 168 168 063 00742 0000000100

68kts

[Air Force Met]

I never heard about that part, I'm not even sure if you reduce first.

You always reduce flight level winds. Depending upon what level they are flying...you multiply by .75... or .8....or .9

Depends on the level. You never use 100%

[mtm4319]

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well now they've found 68 kt winds (look at the title) so there are now about 80 mph winds in Alberto right now (its actually 78.2 mph winds).

[thunderchief]

remember flight level reductions are estimates, and the plane isnt even close to sampling the entire storm.

[no advance]

Hurricane Hunter You lose 2000 posts for that mistake. Take action Cyclone

[Thunder44]

Well now they've found 68 kt winds (look at the title) so there are now about 80 mph winds in Alberto right now (its actually 78.2 mph winds).

At flight level. All the winds being reported back are taken at flight level. You must reduce for the surface!

[Stratusxpeye]

Well now they've found 68 kt winds (look at the title) so there are now about 80 mph winds in Alberto right now (its actually 78.2 mph winds).

What??? I hink somebody needs a new calculator

[HurricaneHunter914]

Hurricane Hunter You lose 2000 posts for that mistake. Take action Cyclone

What?