TS Alberto Recon Reports

[SouthFloridawx]

68 x .9 = 61.2mph

Alberto is likely a 60mph TS.

Don't you mean 68 x 1.15 x .9= 70mph TS?

Yep

[mempho]

68 x .9 = 61.2mph

Alberto is likely a 60mph TS.

That's 68 knots, and the multiplier is either .75 or .8 (meaning 51 or 54.4 knots).

That would be 63mph...is the flight level substantially different here?

[cycloneye]

003
SXXX50 KNHC 121336
AF305 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 18 KNHC
1328. 2732N 08600W 00780 5045 036 060 160 160 060 00755 0000000100
1329 2731N 08601W 00780 5046 033 063 160 160 065 00754 0000000100
1329. 2729N 08603W 00779 5046 024 066 152 152 066 00752 0000000100
1330 2728N 08605W 00780 5047 019 064 148 148 066 00752 0000000000
1330. 2726N 08606W 00781 5048 020 067 158 158 070 00752 0000000000
1331 2725N 08608W 00777 5051 016 074 148 148 074 00746 0000000000
1331. 2723N 08610W 00780 5054 019 073 154 154 073 00746 0000000000
1332 2722N 08611W 00780 5056 020 070 154 154 072 00744 0000000000
1332. 2720N 08613W 00780 5053 021 067 168 168 069 00746 0000000000
1333 2719N 08615W 00781 5049 016 067 188 186 068 00751 0000000000
1333. 2717N 08616W 00780 5045 013 060 206 182 063 00755 0000000000
1334 2716N 08618W 00776 5045 012 055 194 186 057 00751 0000000000
1334. 2715N 08619W 00782 5044 014 049 220 182 051 00757 0000000000
1335 2713N 08621W 00780 5044 012 042 226 186 043 00756 0000000000
1335. 2712N 08622W 00779 5043 010 037 220 186 039 00756 0000000000
1336 2711N 08624W 00781 5043 012 036 230 174 038 00758 0000000000
1336. 2709N 08625W 00782 5043 018 033 246 178 034 00759 0000000000
1337 2708N 08627W 00778 5039 011 032 244 178 034 00758 0000000000
1337. 2707N 08628W 00783 5034 011 035 228 178 035 00769 0000000000
1338 2705N 08630W 00772 5030 025 035 176 176 039 00762 0000000000

74kts

[Tropigal]

Cycloneye, where is that website located where the your posting the flight data from?

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, where is that website located where the your posting the flight data from?

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/sta ... XXX50.KNHC

[kenl01]

Good Grief ! It's really not a big deal this system. Lots of shearing still in the works. It will likely remain a TS at landfall.

People are all getting worked up for nothing. If I were them, I'd take the day off and go water skiing down there.........

Not so true, this is Florida in June, lots of tourists from up north who here in the Pnahandle a few years back when 6 ft. waves were crashing on the beach 18 tourists went out and drowned!!!!!!

Oh come on - no use to be paranoid with these systems. I've been through Hugo and faired just fine. I went swimming in 6 ft' breakers a day before the storm here on Sullivans Island. Of course we did prepare a little before it got here. However, these people should have had a little common sense not to swim out there if the current is too rough. That would have helped..........

[feederband]

003
SXXX50 KNHC 121336
AF305 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 18 KNHC
1328. 2732N 08600W 00780 5045 036 060 160 160 060 00755 0000000100
1329 2731N 08601W 00780 5046 033 063 160 160 065 00754 0000000100
1329. 2729N 08603W 00779 5046 024 066 152 152 066 00752 0000000100
1330 2728N 08605W 00780 5047 019 064 148 148 066 00752 0000000000
1330. 2726N 08606W 00781 5048 020 067 158 158 070 00752 0000000000
1331 2725N 08608W 00777 5051 016 074 148 148 074 00746 0000000000
1331. 2723N 08610W 00780 5054 019 073 154 154 073 00746 0000000000
1332 2722N 08611W 00780 5056 020 070 154 154 072 00744 0000000000
1332. 2720N 08613W 00780 5053 021 067 168 168 069 00746 0000000000
1333 2719N 08615W 00781 5049 016 067 188 186 068 00751 0000000000
1333. 2717N 08616W 00780 5045 013 060 206 182 063 00755 0000000000
1334 2716N 08618W 00776 5045 012 055 194 186 057 00751 0000000000
1334. 2715N 08619W 00782 5044 014 049 220 182 051 00757 0000000000
1335 2713N 08621W 00780 5044 012 042 226 186 043 00756 0000000000
1335. 2712N 08622W 00779 5043 010 037 220 186 039 00756 0000000000
1336 2711N 08624W 00781 5043 012 036 230 174 038 00758 0000000000
1336. 2709N 08625W 00782 5043 018 033 246 178 034 00759 0000000000
1337 2708N 08627W 00778 5039 011 032 244 178 034 00758 0000000000
1337. 2707N 08628W 00783 5034 011 035 228 178 035 00769 0000000000
1338 2705N 08630W 00772 5030 025 035 176 176 039 00762 0000000000


74kts

What

[mtm4319]

Yikes...

[feederband]

is this a cane?

[SouthFloridawx]

I think we might see a relocation of the center to the east of the earlier edvisory... after recon is finished and in time for the 10am CDT advisory. IMO

[mtm4319]

is this a cane?

No not yet... probably 60-65mph though.

[Thunder44]

is this a cane?

No not yet... probably 60-65mph though.

Maybe 70mph depending on what reduction TPC uses.

[feederband]

is this a cane?

No not yet... probably 60-65mph though.

Maybe 70mph depending on what reduction TPC uses.

I guess thats what I'm asking at what level did they find that 74 flt wind?

[HURAKAN]

is this a cane?

No not yet... probably 60-65mph though.

74 knots x .75 = 55.5 knots

They have enough data to support a 65 mph storm!!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Now Alberto is probably an 80 mph hurricane.

74 x 1.15 x .9=76.5 in which you round to 77 in which you round to 80.

[CHRISTY]

guys this most likely will reach minimal hurricane strength right before landfall or it will be just shy of a hurricane.

[drezee]

is this a cane?

No not yet... probably 60-65mph though.

74 knots x .75 = 55.5 knots

They have enough data to support a 65 mph storm!!!

You don't use .75 in this situation. This is a highly convective system. You can use .85.

[Derek Ortt]

please, everyone

read Franklin et al, 2003 to get the proper conversion factors.

you never use .9 when recon is flying at the top of the boundary layer

[P.K.]

Now Alberto is probably an 80 mph hurricane.

74 x 1.15 x .9=76.5 in which you round to 77 in which you round to 80.

That reduction is too low. Also the SS scale is not in mph so you can't keep rounding it up like that.

[Derek Ortt]

you dont use .85 at the top of the boundary layer due to the logrithmic reduction due to friction. This friction is present regardless as to how convective a system is