TS Alberto Recon Reports

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Extremeweatherguy
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#241 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:50 am

CHRISTY wrote:guys this most likely will reach minimal hurricane strength right before landfall or it will be just shy of a hurricane.
not unless there is more organization. If this became a hurricane, it would be one of the most un-organized ones I have ever seen. I am not saying it won't happen, but I do not see it getting stronger than 75mph.
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#242 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:50 am

Okay, but I'm still new at this so I'm not really smart in that area. Man, all I do is waste peoples time. I might aswell stop posting today and try tomorrow.
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#243 Postby drezee » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:51 am

Derek, you know as well as I do that the more convective a system is... the more the wind speed can be to transferred to the surface.
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#244 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:51 am

SXXX50 KNHC 121346
AF305 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 19 KNHC
1338. 2704N 08631W 00788 5028 023 036 184 182 040 00779 0000000000
1339 2703N 08633W 00775 5027 022 031 176 176 033 00768 0000000000
1339. 2702N 08634W 00780 5025 020 031 184 168 034 00775 0000000000
1340 2700N 08636W 00780 5023 014 029 186 172 030 00776 0000000000
1340. 2659N 08637W 00781 5024 008 031 186 174 033 00777 0000000000
1341 2658N 08638W 00780 5024 010 029 186 178 031 00776 0000000000
1341. 2656N 08640W 00778 5023 013 027 210 152 028 00776 0000000000
1342 2655N 08641W 00779 5022 009 030 202 160 030 00777 0000000000
1342. 2654N 08643W 00781 5020 008 030 214 150 030 00780 0000000000
1343 2652N 08643W 00782 5020 008 027 206 156 027 00782 0000000000
1343. 2651N 08642W 00778 5020 015 023 208 160 024 00777 0000000000
1344 2650N 08640W 00780 5022 012 019 208 166 022 00778 0000000000
1344. 2649N 08639W 00780 5022 009 018 210 172 019 00778 0000000000
1345 2648N 08637W 00779 5022 013 024 190 186 025 00777 0000000000
1345. 2648N 08635W 00779 5022 013 021 200 188 024 00777 0000000000
1346 2647N 08633W 00780 5023 016 018 202 188 018 00777 0000000000
1346. 2647N 08632W 00778 5024 008 016 180 180 017 00774 0000000000
1347 2647N 08630W 00781 5024 356 015 178 178 017 00776 0000000000
1347. 2647N 08628W 00780 5025 356 016 178 178 017 00774 0000000000
1348 2647N 08626W 00780 5026 359 018 188 188 019 00774 0000000000

About to cross center.
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#245 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:51 am

Derek Ortt wrote:you dont use .85 at the top of the boundary layer due to the logrithmic reduction due to friction. This friction is present regardless as to how convective a system is



laymans terms please....thanks Derek
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#246 Postby thunderchief » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:52 am

Image
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#247 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:53 am

Image
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#248 Postby curtadams » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:53 am

HURAKAN wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:
feederband wrote:is this a cane?


No not yet... probably 60-65mph though.


74 knots x .75 = 55.5 knots

They have enough data to support a 65 mph storm!!!


They've moved up to 2500 feet. Isnt' that a 0.8 reduction? 59 knots and 68 mph, I think.
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CHRISTY

#249 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:53 am

Derek Ortt wrote:you dont use .85 at the top of the boundary layer due to the logrithmic reduction due to friction. This friction is present regardless as to how convective a system is


so derek question whats your thinking minimal cat 1 right before landfall?
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#250 Postby drezee » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:55 am

drezee wrote:Derek, you know as well as I do that the more convective a system is... the more the wind speed can be to transferred to the surface.


Also, per yesterday's nhc intensity.

for 50 kts boundary level flight winds...they classified Alberto as a 45 mph system. Which was a conversion of 0.8.

Used today would yield...68 mph
Last edited by drezee on Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#251 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:55 am

Still no matter the flight level we have a strengthening system and a strong TS. It is not out of the realm of possibility that we get a minimal hurricane if the convection keeps up. I remember Hurricane Earl from 98 that was severly sheared to the east like Alberto, he reached 110mph before he made landfall just east of Panama City.
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Derek Ortt

#252 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:56 am

at 2500 feet, the reduction is probably between 75 and 80, since winds increase closer to the top of the BL, and at 850mb, 80 is used, and at 500m, 75 is used
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#253 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:57 am

drezee wrote:
drezee wrote:Derek, you know as well as I do that the more convective a system is... the more the wind speed can be to transferred to the surface.


Also, per yesterday's nhc intensity.

for 50 kts boundary level flight winds...they classified Alberto as a 45 mph system. Which was a conversion of 0.8.

Used today would yield...60 mph


That the conversion I'm using. 74kts would about 59.2 kts at the surface or 68mph. TPC could round that to 70mph on the advisory.
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#254 Postby BigA » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:58 am

Still no matter the flight level we have a strengthening system and a strong TS. It is not out of the realm of possibility that we get a minimal hurricane if the convection keeps up. I remember Hurricane Earl from 98 that was severly sheared to the east like Alberto, he reached 110mph before he made landfall just east of Panama City.


Earl was a weird system. It was a broad tropical storm whose center reformed, and then sort of turned into what looked like a subtropical storm in the Gulf in August. But yeah, I was thinking that. This system does sort of look like Earl.

I dont think this storm will become a hurricane; it has too much shear to fight, but i do think it can become a strong TS
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#255 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:59 am

Earl from 1998........


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 02 1998

THE CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IS NOT THE TYPICAL
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANES. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDER STRONG SHEAR
BUT IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO INTENSIFY. THE WIND FIELD IS HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FEEDER BAND
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE PLANE RECENTLY
MEASURED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 104 KNOTS AND JUST REPORTED...AT
2028Z...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB BUT NO EYE OR WALL CLOUD
FORMING.

THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND A MUCH LARGER
CIRCULATION MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE OVERALL INITIAL
MOTION. IT APPEARS THAT EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ABOUT 8 KNOTS BUT THIS ALSO COULD ANOTHER EASTWARD SHIFT OR
REFORMATION. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING TRACKS TOWARD ALL DIRECTIONS.
THE GFDL CHANGED ITS TUNE AND NOW HAS A 72-HOUR POSITION NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUES WITH A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST OPTION AT
THIS TIME. ON THIS TRACK THE DIFFUSE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS
REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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#256 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:00 am

AN AIR FORCE PLANE RECENTLY
MEASURED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 104 KNOTS AND JUST REPORTED


:eek:
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#257 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:00 am

SXXX50 KNHC 121356
AF305 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 20 KNHC
1348. 2646N 08625W 00780 5025 359 023 184 182 025 00775 0000000000
1349 2646N 08623W 00778 5025 358 027 196 180 028 00773 0000000000
1349. 2646N 08621W 00781 5025 358 030 206 180 033 00776 0000000000
1350 2646N 08619W 00780 5024 356 035 204 190 036 00776 0000000000
1350. 2646N 08617W 00780 5025 355 037 202 198 039 00775 0000000000
1351 2646N 08616W 00779 5025 352 036 206 198 038 00773 0000000000
1351. 2646N 08614W 00779 5026 348 037 208 196 038 00773 0000000000
1352 2646N 08612W 00785 5026 345 038 204 196 039 00779 0000000000
1352. 2646N 08610W 00768 5027 339 038 198 192 042 00761 0000000000
1353 2647N 08609W 00790 5028 325 035 172 172 039 00782 0000000000
1353. 2647N 08607W 00775 5030 328 037 212 190 043 00765 0000000000
1354 2648N 08605W 00786 5032 321 035 210 188 038 00774 0000000000
1354. 2648N 08603W 00773 5036 319 042 208 194 044 00757 0000000000
1355 2649N 08601W 00784 5040 307 038 214 198 038 00763 0000000000
1355. 2650N 08600W 00777 5044 293 040 216 198 047 00752 0000000000
1356 2651N 08559W 00782 5053 296 045 208 202 046 00749 0000000000
1356. 2653N 08558W 00778 5059 291 042 200 200 045 00739 0000000000
1357 2654N 08557W 00783 5064 282 036 200 200 038 00739 0000000000
1357. 2655N 08556W 00777 5071 276 034 208 208 035 00726 0000000000
1358 2657N 08556W 00781 5079 262 033 222 202 034 00722 0000000000
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#258 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:01 am

that was fron Earl, not Alberto
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#259 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:01 am

cancel that
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#260 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:01 am

Derek Ortt wrote:that was fron Earl, not Alberto


okay not sure why somebody would post that?
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