Tropical Storm Alberto

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skysummit
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#1361 Postby skysummit » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:00 am

Pensacola is just fine for now....these models are affected by different stearing layers of the atmosphere. There are no signs of a northern turn.
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#1362 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:01 am

almost an exact clone of 2005
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#1363 Postby B'hamBlazer » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:03 am

Sorry... dont see a great eastward component as of yet. I still believe it will be a FL panhandle hit.
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#1364 Postby Opal storm » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:05 am

skysummit wrote:Pensacola is just fine for now....these models are affected by different stearing layers of the atmosphere. There are no signs of a northern turn.
Pensacola is out the woods IMO,I can't see this making landfall any further west than Panama City.This is definitely a Big Bend/central FL storm
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#1365 Postby aerojad » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:06 am

Man, Alberto sure has exploded this morning :eek:

more images and such from me
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#1366 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:07 am

i think im gonna skip the coffee this morining, somebody catch me up, did shear relax? did it gain strenght because of the loop current? did recon fly through again since last evening? does somebody have the latest satelite? thank you
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#1367 Postby benny » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:08 am

Amazing change from the cyclone. Just goes to show how little we know about these things. Most people would have called you psycho 12 hours ago to declare this would be 60 kt this next morning. bizarre.
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#1368 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:08 am

Actually I checked the buoys out on the NE Gulf and the one south of Destin 42039 had a lower pressure and falling 29.80" and the one NW of Tampa 42036 had a pressure of 29.85 and rising. :roll:

We have to keep an eye out especially Destin and eastward.
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#1369 Postby skysummit » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:08 am

According to the 11am Discussion....the center has ABRUPTLY reformed near the center of convection. Alberto showing who's boss!
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#1370 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:10 am

Alberto is ticked and is going to do what he wants to do
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#1371 Postby Scorpion » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:11 am

Not surprised at all. I expected it last night.
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#1372 Postby Windtalker1 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:11 am

Does anyone have graphics showing the map of watches/warnings areas?
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#1373 Postby HurricaneGirl » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:11 am

:eek: Holy Crap! :eek: I just got done with the payroll and saw it went up to 70 mph winds.. Jeez O Pete!
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#1374 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:12 am

I still dont think its going to the panhandle.. NHC is on track or a little north. I see a more eastward component.
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#1375 Postby x-y-no » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:13 am

Derek Ortt just issued a special forecast:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85616

He's significantly east of the official NHC forcast track - which makes sense to me given the strength of the trough moving in. I'm not sure why the NHC is seeing that more northerly track at and folling landfall.
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#1376 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:13 am

Here's the latest heat content map overlaid with the past 3 Alberto positions. (Ignore the white line connecting the red dots - that's my plot of the current recon mission that I can't clear right now.)

Image
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#1377 Postby Noles2006 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:13 am

floridahurricaneguy - I think one of the reasons you "see" a more eastward component was the reformation of the center.
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#1378 Postby B'hamBlazer » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:14 am

I see continued NNE motion and most models I see are indicating a hit anywhere from Panama City to just south of Tallahassee. That's still my best estimation for landfall as a Cat. 1.
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#1379 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:15 am

skysummit wrote:According to the 11am Discussion....the center has ABRUPTLY reformed near the center of convection. Alberto showing who's boss!


I think AFM was expecting to do that for awhile. Reform further east where conditions where more favorable. You never really know anyway how these storms are going to behave. Never write them off in GOM until they are completely gone.
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#1380 Postby NCHurricane » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:16 am

Windtalker1 wrote:Does anyone have graphics showing the map of watches/warnings areas?


http://warnings.hamweather.net/hw/640x480/usfl.png
Edit: Meant to post link, not image.

http://www.nchurricane.com
Last edited by NCHurricane on Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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