Mempho's Unofficial Alberto Forecast

[mempho]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Disclaimers out of the way now, here is the graphical presentation.



Discussion:

I hate to be so unimagintive in my first forecast of the 2006 season but the facts are the facts. I'll save that for sometime else. This statement should not be misconstrued as meaning that this storm is easy to forecast. Quite contrary, it is far from it. That said, I don't see much, if anything, wrong with the NHC forecast. They seem to have as good a handle as one can have on a system with this level of difficulty so I'm not going to get glamorous and make a huge departure from their forecast. Rather, I'll pretty much stick with it.

I've increased the sustained winds at landfall a little from the present observations and it should be noted that even the NHC acknowledges that their is an outside chance of Alberto making it to hurricane status before landfall. I really don't believe that Alberto will get that much better organized, but I do think that the individual storms that exist on the "dirty side" of Alberto could increase in intensity to the point that they exceed severe limits but I'm not convinced of that either. There are only two opportunities for strengthening and they include 1) relaxation of the shear or 2) a change in the movement of Alberto that gets the movement of the storm in enough congruence with the movement of the shear such that the net effect of the shear of the storm is not as great as it is at the present time. Any improvement in these factors and the storm will strengthen. The converse is also true and, if that is the case, we could be looking at TD Alberto making landfall.

Hence, I've split it down the middle and taken it to 55mph at landfall 1. I do believe that we're looking at a possible second landfall here but I think that it is probably going to be inconsequential with most of the severe winds (if any) and rains remaining offshore unless Alberto manages to maneuver the convection near the Yucatan closer to its center of circulation. I am also in agreement with the position of the NHC's TS Watches.

Mempho 6/11/06

[mempho]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Interim Update 06/12/06



Discussion:

I thought an interim update was needed due to marked changes in the intensity of Alberto. The storm has moved into an area of reduced shear. I know think the dynamics are good to support a strong Category 1 or weak Category 2 hurricane. The official forecast falls for maximum sustained winds of 100mph at landfall which should coincide with the system's peak intensity. I've also added hurricane warnings that are shifted slightly north and west of those issued by the NHC. These warnings breakpoints are noted by the red dashes. In addition, I have added a special Storm Surge Warning (SSW) for the entire areas north of Pinellas County and east of Appalachicola. The SSW is a "rider" warning that is issued in addition to the hurricane warning due to the expectation of surge that betrays the normal storm surge estimates for the forecasted category of hurricane using the Saffir-Simpson scale. This forecast calls for a Category 2 hurricane at landfall and the corresponding SS value would be 6 to 8 feet. In this dangerous scenario, storm surge values could be in the 10 to 15 foot range. Evacuations will be necessary.

The track of Alberto has shifted north and west of my prior forecast and the intensity belied my expectations this morning. Now that shear has relaxed, I fear that this has gone from a nonthreatening needed rainmaker to a potentially devastating hurricane for the big bend of Florida. The funnel effect could make 2006's first storm one to remember...unfortunately.

Mempho

[Dustin]

I think you are over doing it a bit man....no evuacations have been called yet, and they would have been by now. unless the shear stops I see no way this is going to make it to a cat 2

[Noles2006]

Way overdoing it.

Track looks good to me, though.