Tropical Depression Alberto Advisories

[Innotech]

holy sh-

Wow. Never count those struggling gulf Storms out of the game!
Ive been utterly amazed by Alberto's tenacity.

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 121453
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS ALBERTO LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND STRONGER...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUS
LOCATION.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALBERTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...27.1 N...85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[JonathanBelles]

what the h!@# happened over night?

[KatDaddy]

Wow! Alberto could be hurricane #1 for the season. The craziness has begun. I hope everyone is prepared and stays safe.

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 121503
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND THAT THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE HAS ABRUPTLY REFORMED NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT IS
NOW RELOCATED SOME 60 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED POSITION. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED A PEAK
2500-FT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997
MB. BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO
60 KT. THE STORM HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO
LOOP CURRENT...WHICH HAS LIKELY BEEN A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE
INTENSIFICATION. AS ALBERTO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL
BE DEPARTING THE LOOP CURRENT AND ENCOUNTERING A REGION OF LOWER
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS WOULD APPEAR TO MITIGATE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. NONETHELESS....GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE WE MUST NOW ALLOW FOR THE DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. THEREFORE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD HEADING. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE SHOW A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT GIVEN THE
NORTHEASTWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE ONLY A SLIGHT
LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL...THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH ALBERTO IS
LIKELY TO BE STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG AN EXTENSIVE PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST. OWING TO THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE
AND THE SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF...A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CAN PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN THIS
AREA.


FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 27.1N 85.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 27.6N 85.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 28.8N 84.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 30.0N 83.6W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 77.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/1200Z 38.0N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[simplykristi]

WOW The first possible hurricane of the season! Many forecasters were talking yesterday that Alberto would weaken. How wrong they were!

Kristi

Edited for a typo

[Loring]

i was going to call it to maintain yesterday based on how well it was being fed from the south, and its forecast to move away from the dry air as well as the shear from the west to decrease.

[MississippiHurricane]

That is a BIG jump in wind speed since the last advisory. I personally thought is was not going to get any stronger before landfall. What a surprise this is! I just wonder how bad the surge will be in Tampa Bay if the storm stays on the predicted track.

[Jim Cantore]

I'm not going to panic yet

Arlene, Allison, Alma, Alberto?

or

Audrey, Alberto?

[Audrey2Katrina]

Definitely not Audrey!

A2K

[kenl01]

Still just a strong tropical storm. If anything, it looks more subtropical than tropical. And with shear still over the system, its possible that the convection might again separate far from the center again before landfall.

At the moment, I'd be waterskiing or body surfing down there.

[Scorpion]

Still just a strong tropical storm. If anything, it looks more subtropical than tropical. And with shear still over the system, its possible that the convection might again separate far from the center again before landfall.

At the moment, I'd be waterskiing or body surfing down there.

Because you made some great calls last night.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow just think what the loop current will do to storms later this year.

[LAwxrgal]

Two words jumped out at me while I skimmed the 11 am advisory -- loop current.

This is the same loop current that allowed Katrina and Rita to become beasts. Even though we're not expecting nearly the same thing out of Alberto, because of its apparent rapid strengthening, I urge everyone in its path to take it seriously.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Two words jumped out at me while I skimmed the 11 am advisory -- loop current.

This is the same loop current that allowed Katrina and Rita to become beasts. Even though we're not expecting nearly the same thing out of Alberto, because of its apparent rapid strengthening, I urge everyone in its path to take it seriously.

You forgot Wilma, but we're all human.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not going to panic yet

Arlene, Allison, Alma, Alberto?

or

Audrey, Alberto?

The first set. Audrey was a fluke and had perfect conditions going for her, unlike Arlene, Allison or even Alma (although she had better conditions).

[CrazyC83]

Two words jumped out at me while I skimmed the 11 am advisory -- loop current.

This is the same loop current that allowed Katrina and Rita to become beasts. Even though we're not expecting nearly the same thing out of Alberto, because of its apparent rapid strengthening, I urge everyone in its path to take it seriously.

You forgot Wilma, but we're all human.

Wilma didn't explode over the Loop Current - she exploded over an untouched Caribbean Sea which had even more warm water to work with over a larger area.

[HurricaneHunter914]

But I thought the loop current was in the NW Caribbean and ran into the GOM?

[LAwxrgal]

^Yep, that's why I didn't include her in that infamous list. Caribbean hadn't been touched since July and had ample opportunity to warm up. With practically no shear and an anticyclone over her... voila... you had the strongest cane on record in the basin.

If I'm not mistaken Charley from '04 intensified over that same pool of water before landfall.

[Rainband]

Charely was much stronger to begin with.