Tropical Storm Alberto

Ivan14 · #1541 Postby **Ivan14** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:06 pm

I am thinking he will be a 65 MPH storm when he makes landfall. Because of cooler water near the shore and drier air but I expect him to peak at cane strength due to water temps of 80+.

6SpeedTA95 · #1542 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:09 pm

Ivan14 wrote:I am thinking he will be a 65 MPH storm when he makes landfall. Because of cooler water near the shore and drier air but I expect him to peak at cane strength due to water temps of 80+.

The water where the center is currently located is just under 80*and it gets cooler asit gets closer to shore. SST and TCHP is also lower as you get closer to shore I'm wondering now if it'll strengthen at all. Especially looking at the latest IR its really being sheared hard right now.

MiamiensisWx · #1543 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:10 pm

Alberto is clearly slowly on a potential weakening trend. Convection has warmed considerably after the peak intensity and continues to do so as shear and dry air intrusion is impacting the system; also, in such a case as this with these unfavorable synoptics and an anemic satellite and low-level presentation, waters even slightly cooler and shallower are likely to weaken Alberto further just before landfall. You can see my points on imagery...

Infra-red imagery

Visible imagery

Water vapor imagery

In cases like this with significant dry air intrusion, it is possible that there is a delayed effect on windspeeds, both at the flight levels and possibly the surface, which may be why RECON is still finding 65KT to 80KT flight-level winds. We will likely see a slow drop in the speeds after several hours as the system gets much closer to landfall. This is very similar to an Allison (1995) or Earl (1998) synoptics, setup, and intensity change/decrease before landfall scenario...

Noles2006 · #1544 Postby **Noles2006** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:11 pm

Reading through the recon thread, you gotta wonder if it made hurricane status... I think it did!

#1545 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:14 pm

It's still holding its own. There is always a chance overnight it could intensify some - weak systems tend to do that at night.

baitism · #1546 Postby **baitism** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:15 pm

If so, its one of the ugliest hurricanes ive ever seen.

cpdaman · #1547 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:16 pm

clearly slowly on a potential weakening trend. what does this mean

Noles2006 · #1548 Postby **Noles2006** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:16 pm

baitism -- ditto... but be careful! You saw what happened when some said he was the ugliest TS they've ever seen! :wink:

let's hope he doesn't read this forum! :cheesy:

gtalum · #1549 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:19 pm

cpdaman wrote:clearly slowly on a potential weakening trend. what does this mean

It means the NHC may have seriously dropped the ball when they upgraded teh TS warnings to hurricane warnings and will have caused people to become just a little more complacent about future storm warnings.

$10 to someone's favorite charity says that this storm never becomes a hurricane.

Website · #1550 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:20 pm

baitism wrote:If so, its one of the ugliest hurricanes ive ever seen.

100 mph(Category 2) Hurricane Earl in 1998 just before landfall.

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/hurr/98/earl/ea ... 2_2342.gif

Javlin · #1551 Postby **Javlin** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:21 pm

jschlitz wrote:It's still holding its own. There is always a chance overnight it could intensify some - weak systems tend to do that at night.

I have to agree that with the diurnal process that some intensification tonight is possible.The overall picture in the WV imagine of the CONUS shows an expansion N and some NNW in the upper environment.If Alberto can stay tucked under the convection and pick up some speed alittle I would expect a slightly stronger system tomorrow morning.

#1552 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:22 pm

baitism wrote:If so, its one of the ugliest hurricanes ive ever seen.

Remember Earl from 1998?

In any event, Alberto may briefly become a hurricane, but last year I thought Arlene would be a hurricane at landfall when it looked like this at 70 mph. I've learned my lesson, I think, and am going with 65-70 mph for Alberto at landfall tomorrow.

-Andrew92

hicksta · #1553 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:25 pm

Yall are crazy, did you not see how it blew up overnight. This will be a hurricane when it makes landfall.

#1554 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:25 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Alberto will probably weaken a bit today and strengthen over night and then weaken a bit in the day again.

Why do you think so? Explain your reasoning. Quality over quantity.

This is the bazillionth post I've seen (not trying to single you out CapeVerde

) about "quality over quantity", "give scientific reasons", etc. I've been a member here for a couple of years now, and I used to like it when we AMATEUR people could give opinions on storms without necessarily a reason. It's fun to try to forecast these things, but I don't necessarily have "scientific" reasons for every little thought about a storm. Sometimes you just get feelings or you think a certain way. Who cares? This particular forum is all about talking about the tropics. It is NOT the professional forum where the pros can post their forecasts and back it up with reasons. I, for one, amd getting very tired of all these posts and it's making me almost scared to post any thought on any storm now. I love ya all, but y'all need to remember what this forum is for, IMO.

Noles2006 · #1555 Postby **Noles2006** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:26 pm

Agree with ya 100%, Canelaw.

stormtruth · #1556 Postby **stormtruth** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:28 pm

Fun over quality while still limiting quantity.

whereverwx · #1557 Postby **whereverwx** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:29 pm

Here's an updated AVN loop of Alberto: Click here

The cloud tops have warmed a lot since this morning.

And here's a RGB visible loop since sunrise today: Click here

theworld · #1558 Postby **theworld** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:29 pm

Thanks Canelaw99.... Exactly why this amateur has not posted at all since last season.

Canelaw99 wrote:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Alberto will probably weaken a bit today and strengthen over night and then weaken a bit in the day again.

Why do you think so? Explain your reasoning. Quality over quantity.

This is the bazillionth post I've seen (not trying to single you out CapeVerde ) about "quality over quantity", "give scientific reasons", etc. I've been a member here for a couple of years now, and I used to like it when we AMATEUR people could give opinions on storms without necessarily a reason. It's fun to try to forecast these things, but I don't necessarily have "scientific" reasons for every little thought about a storm. Sometimes you just get feelings or you think a certain way. Who cares? This particular forum is all about talking about the tropics. It is NOT the professional forum where the pros can post their forecasts and back it up with reasons. I, for one, amd getting very tired of all these posts and it's making me almost scared to post any thought on any storm now. I love ya all, but y'all need to remember what this forum is for, IMO.

DESTRUCTION5 · #1559 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:29 pm

hicksta wrote:Yall are crazy, did you not see how it blew up overnight. This will be a hurricane when it makes landfall.

This is not Sept..waters cooler...Shear present...And getting closer to land which will interfere with intesification..

floridahurricaneguy · #1560 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:33 pm

Does it still look more close to ENE then NE? Earlier it looked liked it was close to ENE. I am not home right now so cant look at ir images.

Tropical Storm Alberto

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