Center becoming exposed again...

[Hyperstorm]

Alberto is definitely better organized than yesterday, but this system is still poorly organized. Looking at the upper-levels, there is no retreat of the strong upper-level jet winds screaming across the Gulf of Mexico. These winds are not allowing the convection to remain near the center and blows it off toward the northeast. The system is once again resembling a subtropical type system with the center becoming exposed and a long tail of moisture developing to its south. So, don't be surprised if we see a rise in central pressure during the next pass and potentially no hurricane before it makes it to the coast.



As mentioned in the discussion, what really boosted this system's winds during the overnight hours was the one and only Gulf Loop Current. Alberto is now moving toward the NE and that motion will bring it over an area with much lower oceanic heat content. SSTs are also cooler near the coast. Therefore, I don't see this system becoming a hurricane, much less making landfall as one. The impacts should be similar to Allison in 1995 and Gordon in 2000 with a major threat for tornadoes and flooding to the east of where the center makes landfall.

*Something very important to note as well is that climatologically speaking, this is NOT a precursor of what a season will be like in terms of numbers. We have seen countless times in which a tropical storm develops in early June and only see a normal to moderately active season. Just because we see a tropical storms develops on June 1st does not mean we will have 20 named storms. Hurricane Season climatology is much more complicated than that.

[Lowpressure]

I think the indicator is much more around the fact that Alberto fought so hard and strengthened against most odds under a nasty shear environment. Heat content won out over shear- that is the bad sign. When there is little or no shear- we get the big ones.

[Thunder44]

The center doesn't look exposed to me. There is just hook shape showing up in the high cloudiness. The low-level center is still on edge, tucked in as it has been all morning. The storm may not be entirely tropical either, but that doesn't make much difference in the weather conditions.

[gatorcane]

I think the indicator is much more around the fact that Alberto fought so hard and strengthened against most odds under a nasty shear environment. Heat content won out over shear- that is the bad sign. When there is little or no shear- we get the big ones.

Alberto is not a good sign once we move into the part of hurricane season where conditions are better....

[Regit]

And let's hope people know better this year than to say, "The gulf is cool, Alberto stirred the water too much."

[cpdaman]

i'd have to say the person that started this thread was on to something as it looks like the storm just took a beat down in the last two hours, looks pretty sad to me

now watch it blows up again

[cmdebbie]

i'd have to say the person that started this thread was on to something as it looks like the storm just took a beat down in the last two hours, looks pretty sad to me

now watch it blows up again

The latest advisory still has it at 70 mph

[wxwatcher91]

well Alberto has lost some convection in the past few hours but I think that was mainly due to moving over cooler waters. IMO Alberto has won the war against shear (not saying that it still isnt affecting it) but that now that convection has wrapped around the center, it is a bit more protected.