Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[wxmann_91]

I think it is likely and it looks like it will be heading towards the Caribbean where the water temps and wind shear are ample for development:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Do you see that big ul trough in front of the system? That will absolutely rip it apart until it moves into the more favorable environment.

I don't know what you are seeing. Here is the surface forecast from the NHC in 24 hrs:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

looks favorable to me

Note the analysis says "Surface Forecast", emphasis on surface. The streamlines on that shear map are in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Looking at it, you can clearly see a big upper-level trough dominating the area. The GFS, though, has been consistently painting this feature over the western Caribbean in about a week, juxtaposed with shear values of a pretty low 5-10 kt. Wouldn't take it verbatim, and I haven't checked other models yet, nor do I want to.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right now this system looks sick.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 120825
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST MON JUN 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT THE DOPPLER RADAR REPORTED PASSING
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WATER BUT AT THIS MOMENT A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
ARE MOVING INLAND AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THIS REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...THIS SAME MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOTED ESTIMATED ALONG 50 WEST IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING WEDNESDAY.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
EAST OF PUERTO RICO RESULTING IN A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IT SEEMS THAT THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGIONAL WATERS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WINDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.MARINE...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 50
WEST...MOVE CLOSER TO OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.





Above is this morning's discussion from the San Juan NWS.

Folks take a deep breath some who haved replied here taking about a hurricane out of this.The wave will interact with a trough and that is negative for any development.However,yes plenty of rain will arrive to the Eastern Caribbean islands as the interaction occurs by tuesday-wednesday.But we dont lose anything if we watch how this wave moves into the Caribbean.

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS hinting at maybe something coming off of africa...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Extremeweatherguy]

Moisture is expected to increase in the Gulf by the end of the week. JB thinks something may come of this by this weekend or next week.

[skysummit]

Another impressive wave about to emerge off of Africa. It's a little further north than the last few and already looks to have a cyclonic rotation to it. It's gonna be interesting to see how long the convection can survive once it exits.

East Atlantic IR

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ya know there barely is a Lesser Antilles wave now. Take a look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

But that wave about one thousand miles east of South America looks very interesting.

[cycloneye]

Another impressive wave about to emerge off of Africa. It's a little further north than the last few and already looks to have a cyclonic rotation to it. It's gonna be interesting to see how long the convection can survive once it exits.

East Atlantic IR

CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 17W FROM 3N-12N. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE
COAST. MODELS HAVE THIS WAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL. THIS WAVE
WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE 18Z OR 00Z SFC ANALYSIS.

skysummit from the 2 PM discussion.Let's see what occurs with that wave as it tracks westward.

[skysummit]

Wow...Luis, it looks even more impressive now. Boy....this one might be fun to track across the Atlantic.

[bvigal]

The wind surge from this wave (by "this wave" I refer to the topic of this thread) has begun.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPL.html
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

I imply nothing from this wave for Eastern Caribbean, other than wind surge, increased showers and thunderstorms, and possible flash flooding. (And that's enough to concern mariners - extra lines, better anchorages, care in sail trim, etc.) From that perspective, it looks like the SJU forecasts and GFS have been dead on.

[Canelaw99]

GFS hinting at maybe something coming off of africa...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

What's the earliest that a TS or 'Cane has come off Africa? It seems so early to me. I know they can come up at any time, but we usually don't start watching Africa till a couple months from now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Everyone needs to remember that waves during June/July usually do not get organized until they are well into the Caribbean. Of course this wave doesn't look good now, but can the same be said of this thing 3-5 days down the road? Who knows.

As for the wave off of Africa, we still have PLENTY of time to track it. Even if it were to magically develop today, we would still be 10-15 days out from any U.S. impact.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Or any Country impact, the U.S isn't the only country on this board.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Or any Country impact, the U.S isn't the only country on this board.

I'm glad you said that!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I know it isn't the only country on this board, but I happened to be addressing those in the US with my last post. Regarding other countries; it could be as little as a week away.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST MON JUN 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT PATTERN
OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED TO THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF T.S.
ALBERTO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO DEPICTED A TUTT LYING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THESE FEATURES PRODUCED ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING PART OF THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE GET CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA AND STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE TUTT.

THE SCENARIO DO NOT HAVE CHANGED MUCH RESPECT THE ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO....VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS... SEAS AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGIONAL WATERS

&&

.MARINE...AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS WILL BE NOTICED ESPECIALLY IN
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVE TROUGH. STRONG
GUSTS ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED TO THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO THE ISLANDS AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. THE
HIGH INSTABILITY WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.AVIATION...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LEADING TO PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCES...LOW VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AIRPORTS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


bvigal,San Juan NWS was dead on this wave since June 4 when they put out that GFS discussion.



http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 89&start=0

[cycloneye]

A full disk image of Africa and Atlantic which shows that wave emerging western africa.

And this is interesting from GFS.



GFS Cyclone Graphic

[bvigal]

Yes Luis, "dead on" was my comment, too!

Good catch on that GFS. Didn't see that on the 0z run, or did I miss it? Let's hope that doesn't validate!!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

This going to go through some cool SST's before it gets into the warm central Atlantic and possibly into the warmer Caribbean.

[CrazyC83]

GFS hinting at maybe something coming off of africa...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

What's the earliest that a TS or 'Cane has come off Africa? It seems so early to me. I know they can come up at any time, but we usually don't start watching Africa till a couple months from now.

Bertha (July 1996) I believe is the earliest. Emily was the second earliest.