Tropical Storm Alberto

[feederband]

Nice practice storm...

[HURAKAN]

this reminds me again of Henri. Henri was a strong TS in the Gulf, expected to make landfall as a strong storm/weak Hurricane and then it fissled into a TD before landfall on FL.

Please, check once again your information because it's wrong. Henri's strogest winds were 50 mph and it was never forecasted to become a hurricane. In the final report by the NHC/TPC winds were raised to 60 mph.

Here is the discussion when Henri's winds were 50 mph, no hurricane was expected!!!

TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003

AN EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HELPED LOWER
THE PRESSURE TO 997 MB...BUT RECENT IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS REASSERTING ITSELF. THE MOST RECENT
PRESSURE REPORT FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS BACK UP TO 999 MB. THERE MAY
BE ADDITIONAL PULSES OF APPARENT DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.

THE CENTER FIX LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC TODAY...BUT OVERALL YIELD
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/4. THE FORECAST THINKING IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK
STEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN CALLING FOR A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WITHIN
ABOUT 100 MILES OR SO OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS.
AFTER THAT...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRACK
SHOULD BEND TO THE RIGHT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE FORWARD
SPEED...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...WITH STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH-WESTERLIES AND LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT
HENRI WILL BE SHEARED TO PIECES AND THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH AND DISSIPATE.

SHOULD HENRI REGAIN STORM STRENGTH IN THE ATLANTIC...THESE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE QUADRANTS. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...A STRONG SYNOPTIC GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE
HIGH AND THE DECAYING CYCLONE COULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HENRI CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 28.4N 83.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 29.0N 83.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 30.1N 81.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0600Z 31.2N 80.3W 35 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 07/1800Z 32.0N 79.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 33.5N 76.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 34.0N 74.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 34.0N 73.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/di ... .009.shtml?

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Alberto is dying out fast. But for all we know this thing could restrengthen like crazy like last night, or it will make landfall as a minimum TS based on SAT presentation.

[mvtrucking]

I watched the NBC news and the weather people and other people who are reporting from Flordia say it's going to become a hurricane. They didn't say "might" so it means once again that they could be fooling people if it doesn't. I also heard forcasters on TV say that it's strengthening right now. Wow, getting Tropical Cyclone information from TV stinks!! Not only do they say false information a few times, they make mistakes a round the clock!

This thing can become a hurricane still, just need to wait on it. But this thing is so much like Alrene it's not even funny.

I doubt it has the time.

[jaxfladude]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Alberto is dying out fast. But for all we know this thing could restrengthen like crazy like last night, or it will make landfall as a minimum TS based on SAT presentation.

Just some much needed rain and not too much at once.......bring in the rainy season...............

[WindRunner]

Nice little t-storm popping on the south side of Alberto - part of his cold frontish feature, I guess. 110nmi SSE of the center.

[Cyclenall]

I watched the NBC news and the weather people and other people who are reporting from Flordia say it's going to become a hurricane. They didn't say "might" so it means once again that they could be fooling people if it doesn't. I also heard forcasters on TV say that it's strengthening right now. Wow, getting Tropical Cyclone information from TV stinks!! Not only do they say false information a few times, they make mistakes a round the clock!

This thing can become a hurricane still, just need to wait on it. But this thing is so much like Alrene it's not even funny.

I doubt it has the time.

This post is more then 2 hours old!! The chances of becoming a hurricane are not quite the same but it could make a come-back as it did this morning. The loop current may not be there but i'm sure Al will find a way!

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

A little decrease in shear should help Alberto strengthen some, but right now the shear is so high around the system it should have gone "poof".

[Coredesat]

Definitely looks like it's trying to become extratropical.

[HurricaneHunter914]

30% chance of becoming a hurricane IMO.

[Brent]

30% chance of becoming a hurricane IMO.

About 1% IMO, and the only reason I give it that is because of last night. It's not gonna happen... not with it looking like a front.

[clfenwi]

Definitely not looking particularly tropical when you look at radar.

Precip is mostly north of the center (instead of east).

[wxman57]

30% chance of becoming a hurricane IMO.

0.01% IMO Completely surrounded by dry air now. It's no longer really tropical. Has a cold front extending to the southwest.

[johngaltfla]

As I stated in one of the prior 436,000 Alberto threads (j/k), this set up is alot like a Gabrielle from 2001. I think we will see some intensification overnight with an early morning landfall bordering as a strong tropical storm or barely as a Cat 1 hurricane. The set up is still there for this to occur, but either way it is bringing much needed rain to the peninsula. However if any of the other waves develop, I don't think we'll get so lucky.

[ALhurricane]

I would not be surprised at all to see the Hurricane Warnings discontinued at the 11pm advisory. Almost zero chance of this becoming a hurricane now.

This will ultimately be a welcomed rain event for FL. Of course, there is always the tornado threat to take seriously, but I doubt anybody on the coast will see any higher than minimal tropical storm force gusts.

[johnq1954]

Am I crazy or did this storm suddenly disappear?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

[wxwatcher91]

Am I crazy or did this storm suddenly disappear?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

do correct me if Im wrong, but I believe Alberto is in the midst of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone.

[Recurve]

It turned into a nor'easter right there in the nor'east Gulf.
It's like Alberto was only ever tropical on the right side.

It wants to be a monster gale off the outer banks.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wait guys until the NHC really do say this has made an Extratropical transition, the last time we said something about Alberto's SAT presentation he became a 70 mph TS.

[curtadams]

Am I crazy or did this storm suddenly disappear?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

You're not crazy. Alberto's high clouds have evaporated (literally ) and I guess this loop is showing that. There's still a storm, of course, but it's more like the ordinary storms all over the map.