TS Alberto Recon Reports #2

[SouthFloridawx]

USAF High Density Observations
Storm Name: ALBERTO (01L)
Mission Number: 05
Flight ID: AF307
Flt Data Number: 16
Latest Recon Position: 59 mi W of Cedar Key, Florida

01: 01:27:00; 29.4°N 83.6°W; PA: 7539ft; D-Val: 144ft; Wnd: SSE (161°) @ 61mph (Max: 68mph); T: 48F; D: 48F; Radar Alt: 7828ft
02: 01:27:30; 29.4°N 83.6°W; PA: 6939ft; D-Val: 141ft; Wnd: SSE (161°) @ 68mph (Max: 71mph); T: 50F; D: 50F; Radar Alt: 7198ft
03: 01:28:00; 29.4°N 83.6°W; PA: 6411ft; D-Val: 105ft; Wnd: SSE (153°) @ 55mph (Max: 62mph); T: 52F; D: 52F; Radar Alt: 6631ft
04: 01:28:30; 29.4°N 83.6°W; PA: 6043ft; D-Val: 102ft; Wnd: SSE (157°) @ 51mph (Max: 58mph); T: 54F; D: 54F; Radar Alt: 6257ft
05: 01:29:00; 29.3°N 83.7°W; PA: 5994ft; D-Val: 105ft; Wnd: SSE (155°) @ 54mph (Max: 56mph); T: 54F; D: 54F; Radar Alt: 6214ft
06: 01:29:30; 29.3°N 83.7°W; PA: 6007ft; D-Val: 98ft; Wnd: SSE (155°) @ 47mph (Max: 52mph); T: 54F; D: 54F; Radar Alt: 6220ft
07: 01:30:00; 29.3°N 83.7°W; PA: 5991ft; D-Val: 108ft; Wnd: SSE (162°) @ 53mph (Max: 59mph); T: 56F; D: 56F; Radar Alt: 6214ft
08: 01:30:30; 29.3°N 83.7°W; PA: 6001ft; D-Val: 108ft; Wnd: SSE (159°) @ 56mph (Max: 59mph); T: 57F; D: 57F; Radar Alt: 6224ft
09: 01:31:00; 29.3°N 83.7°W; PA: 6007ft; D-Val: 112ft; Wnd: SSE (160°) @ 58mph (Max: 61mph); T: 58F; D: 58F; Radar Alt: 6234ft
10: 01:31:30; 29.3°N 83.8°W; PA: 5988ft; D-Val: 112ft; Wnd: SSE (161°) @ 55mph (Max: 59mph); T: 58F; D: 58F; Radar Alt: 6217ft
11: 01:32:00; 29.2°N 83.8°W; PA: 6007ft; D-Val: 108ft; Wnd: SSE (160°) @ 54mph (Max: 55mph); T: 59F; D: 59F; Radar Alt: 6230ft
12: 01:32:30; 29.2°N 83.8°W; PA: 6004ft; D-Val: 112ft; Wnd: SSE (157°) @ 50mph (Max: 52mph); T: 58F; D: 58F; Radar Alt: 6234ft
13: 01:33:00; 29.2°N 83.8°W; PA: 6007ft; D-Val: 115ft; Wnd: SSE (154°) @ 46mph (Max: 48mph); T: 58F; D: 58F; Radar Alt: 6240ft
14: 01:33:30; 29.2°N 83.8°W; PA: 5984ft; D-Val: 112ft; Wnd: SSE (164°) @ 43mph (Max: 45mph); T: 58F; D: 58F; Radar Alt: 6211ft
15: 01:34:00; 29.2°N 83.9°W; PA: 6004ft; D-Val: 108ft; Wnd: SSE (164°) @ 37mph (Max: 38mph); T: 58F; D: 58F; Radar Alt: 6227ft
16: 01:34:30; 29.2°N 83.9°W; PA: 5997ft; D-Val: 105ft; Wnd: SSE (164°) @ 33mph (Max: 35mph); T: 59F; D: 56F; Radar Alt: 6217ft
17: 01:35:00; 29.1°N 83.9°W; PA: 6001ft; D-Val: 105ft; Wnd: SSE (165°) @ 32mph (Max: 33mph); T: 59F; D: 55F; Radar Alt: 6220ft
18: 01:35:30; 29.1°N 83.9°W; PA: 6001ft; D-Val: 102ft; Wnd: SSE (164°) @ 29mph (Max: 31mph); T: 60F; D: 53F; Radar Alt: 6217ft
19: 01:36:00; 29.1°N 83.9°W; PA: 5781ft; D-Val: 85ft; Wnd: SSE (161°) @ 29mph (Max: 30mph); T: 62F; D: 52F; Radar Alt: 5981ft
20: 01:36:30; 29.1°N 84°W; PA: 5322ft; D-Val: 52ft; Wnd: SSE (158°) @ 31mph (Max: 31mph); T: 64F; D: 53F; Radar Alt: 5489ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[CrazyC83]

I think they will reduce it to 55 knots. The reduction here would be 80% (or less), and that would translate to 54 knots on the surface. Before they found the 68, a 50kt estimate would have been better.

[WindRunner]

I think they will reduce it to 55 knots. The reduction here would be 80% (or less), and that would translate to 54 knots on the surface. Before they found the 68, a 50kt estimate would have been better.

Don't forget the visual estimates from the first pass - they were 60kts as well.

[HURAKAN]

I think they will reduce it to 55 knots. The reduction here would be 80% (or less), and that would translate to 54 knots on the surface. Before they found the 68, a 50kt estimate would have been better.

I agree with everyone that by just looking at the storm it should be weakening, nevertheless, RECON says that the winds remain about the same.

[HURAKAN]

128
SXXX50 KNHC 130144
AF307 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 17 KNHC
0137 2903N 08359W 01545 0009 155 028 184 116 029 01589 0000000000
0137. 2902N 08400W 01525 0006 153 026 192 110 027 01566 0000000000
0138 2901N 08401W 01525 0004 148 026 192 108 026 01564 0000000000
0138. 2900N 08403W 01524 0003 144 026 190 112 027 01562 0000000000
0139 2859N 08404W 01524 0001 139 026 192 110 027 01560 0000000000
0139. 2858N 08405W 01524 5000 140 029 190 110 030 01559 0000000000
0140 2856N 08407W 01523 5002 140 032 192 112 032 01556 0000000000
0140. 2855N 08408W 01523 5004 135 034 184 120 035 01553 0000000000
0141 2854N 08409W 01524 5007 137 037 178 126 038 01552 0000000000
0141. 2853N 08411W 01524 5009 139 040 176 130 041 01550 0000000000
0142 2852N 08412W 01524 5012 138 039 174 132 040 01547 0000000000
0142. 2851N 08413W 01524 5013 141 037 176 136 039 01545 0000000000
0143 2850N 08414W 01524 5015 149 035 170 154 036 01543 0000000000
0143. 2849N 08416W 01524 5018 155 038 160 160 039 01541 0000000000
0144 2847N 08417W 01524 5019 153 039 160 160 041 01539 0000000000
0144. 2846N 08418W 01527 5021 146 039 158 158 040 01540 0000000000
0145 2845N 08419W 01523 5023 138 035 154 154 036 01534 0000000000
0145. 2844N 08421W 01524 5024 134 035 154 154 036 01534 0000000000
0146 2843N 08420W 01525 5025 145 035 158 158 035 01534 0000000000
0146. 2843N 08419W 01524 5025 145 036 160 160 037 01534 0000000000

[WindRunner]

Of course, as they approach the center, the winds die down.

[wxman57]

I think they will reduce it to 55 knots. The reduction here would be 80% (or less), and that would translate to 54 knots on the surface. Before they found the 68, a 50kt estimate would have been better.

I agree with everyone that by just looking at the storm it should be weakening, nevertheless, RECON says that the winds remain about the same.

Have they actually measured surface winds? Derek said they don't have the SFMR radars aboard. I haven't heard them mention any dropsonde reports.

[curtadams]

I think they will reduce it to 55 knots. The reduction here would be 80% (or less), and that would translate to 54 knots on the surface. Before they found the 68, a 50kt estimate would have been better.

Don't forget the visual estimates from the first pass - they were 60kts as well.

You have to suspicious of visual estimates. A cop last year "visually estimated" my speed at 60 when I was only going 45 (he didn't even show up for court). And that was a lot less than 2 (vertical) miles away!

[SouthFloridawx]

USAF High Density Observations
Storm Name: ALBERTO (01L)
Mission Number: 05
Flight ID: AF307
Flt Data Number: 17
Latest Recon Position: 81 mi WSW of Cedar Key, Florida

01: 01:37:00; 29.1°N 84°W; PA: 5069ft; D-Val: 30ft; Wnd: SSE (155°) @ 32mph (Max: 33mph); T: 65F; D: 53F; Radar Alt: 5213ft
02: 01:37:30; 29°N 84°W; PA: 5003ft; D-Val: 20ft; Wnd: SSE (153°) @ 30mph (Max: 31mph); T: 67F; D: 52F; Radar Alt: 5138ft
03: 01:38:00; 29°N 84°W; PA: 5003ft; D-Val: 13ft; Wnd: SSE (148°) @ 30mph (Max: 30mph); T: 67F; D: 51F; Radar Alt: 5131ft
04: 01:38:30; 29°N 84.1°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: 10ft; Wnd: SE (144°) @ 30mph (Max: 31mph); T: 66F; D: 52F; Radar Alt: 5125ft
05: 01:39:00; 29°N 84.1°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: 3ft; Wnd: SE (139°) @ 30mph (Max: 31mph); T: 67F; D: 52F; Radar Alt: 5118ft
06: 01:39:30; 29°N 84.1°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: 0 ft; Wnd: SE (140°) @ 33mph (Max: 35mph); T: 66F; D: 52F; Radar Alt: 5115ft
07: 01:40:00; 28.9°N 84.1°W; PA: 4997ft; D-Val: -7 ft; Wnd: SE (140°) @ 37mph (Max: 37mph); T: 67F; D: 52F; Radar Alt: 5105ft
08: 01:40:30; 28.9°N 84.1°W; PA: 4997ft; D-Val: -13 ft; Wnd: SE (135°) @ 39mph (Max: 40mph); T: 65F; D: 54F; Radar Alt: 5095ft
09: 01:41:00; 28.9°N 84.2°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -23 ft; Wnd: SE (137°) @ 43mph (Max: 44mph); T: 64F; D: 55F; Radar Alt: 5092ft
10: 01:41:30; 28.9°N 84.2°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -30 ft; Wnd: SE (139°) @ 46mph (Max: 47mph); T: 64F; D: 55F; Radar Alt: 5085ft
11: 01:42:00; 28.9°N 84.2°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -39 ft; Wnd: SE (138°) @ 45mph (Max: 46mph); T: 63F; D: 56F; Radar Alt: 5075ft
12: 01:42:30; 28.9°N 84.2°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -43 ft; Wnd: SE (141°) @ 43mph (Max: 45mph); T: 64F; D: 56F; Radar Alt: 5069ft
13: 01:43:00; 28.8°N 84.2°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -49 ft; Wnd: SSE (149°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); T: 63F; D: 60F; Radar Alt: 5062ft
14: 01:43:30; 28.8°N 84.3°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -59 ft; Wnd: SSE (155°) @ 44mph (Max: 45mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5056ft
15: 01:44:00; 28.8°N 84.3°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -62 ft; Wnd: SSE (153°) @ 45mph (Max: 47mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5049ft
16: 01:44:30; 28.8°N 84.3°W; PA: 5010ft; D-Val: -69 ft; Wnd: SE (146°) @ 45mph (Max: 46mph); T: 60F; D: 60F; Radar Alt: 5052ft
17: 01:45:00; 28.8°N 84.3°W; PA: 4997ft; D-Val: -75 ft; Wnd: SE (138°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); T: 60F; D: 60F; Radar Alt: 5033ft
18: 01:45:30; 28.7°N 84.4°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -79 ft; Wnd: SE (134°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); T: 60F; D: 60F; Radar Alt: 5033ft
19: 01:46:00; 28.7°N 84.3°W; PA: 5003ft; D-Val: -82 ft; Wnd: SE (145°) @ 40mph (Max: 40mph); T: 60F; D: 60F; Radar Alt: 5033ft
20: 01:46:30; 28.7°N 84.3°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -82 ft; Wnd: SE (145°) @ 41mph (Max: 43mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5033ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[WindRunner]

The only dropsonde so far has been in the eye. Not much use for measuring winds there.

[StormScanWx]

My guess for 10 PM actually is we'll have a 65 kt hurricane, but I doubt that happens to some extent.

[caneman]

I think they will reduce it to 55 knots. The reduction here would be 80% (or less), and that would translate to 54 knots on the surface. Before they found the 68, a 50kt estimate would have been better.

I agree with everyone that by just looking at the storm it should be weakening, nevertheless, RECON says that the winds remain about the same.

Have they actually measured surface winds? Derek said they don't have the SFMR radars aboard. I haven't heard them mention any dropsonde reports.

We're had wind gust into the 50's and 60's already

[WindRunner]

I think they will reduce it to 55 knots. The reduction here would be 80% (or less), and that would translate to 54 knots on the surface. Before they found the 68, a 50kt estimate would have been better.

Don't forget the visual estimates from the first pass - they were 60kts as well.

You have to suspicious of visual estimates. A cop last year "visually estimated" my speed at 60 when I was only going 45 (he didn't even show up for court). And that was a lot less than 2 (vertical) miles away!

OK yes, but these are people trained for it, and I do believe they have a book with something like wave/foam patterns in it (or something like that) that shows them what the surface looks like at specific winds speeds. As for the fact that they're at 10000ft, OK, yeah, that's a little problem.

[SouthFloridawx]

They are flying at 5,000 ft. now.

[wxman57]

I think they will reduce it to 55 knots. The reduction here would be 80% (or less), and that would translate to 54 knots on the surface. Before they found the 68, a 50kt estimate would have been better.

Don't forget the visual estimates from the first pass - they were 60kts as well.

You have to suspicious of visual estimates. A cop last year "visually estimated" my speed at 60 when I was only going 45 (he didn't even show up for court). And that was a lot less than 2 (vertical) miles away!

OK yes, but these are people trained for it, and I do believe they have a book with something like wave/foam patterns in it (or something like that) that shows them what the surface looks like at specific winds speeds. As for the fact that they're at 10000ft, OK, yeah, that's a little problem.

Wasn't it already dark on the first pass?

[Derek Ortt]

visual estimates are not really considered when making an intensity

[HURAKAN]

318
SXXX50 KNHC 130154
AF307 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 18 KNHC
0147 2844N 08417W 01523 5023 145 039 160 160 039 01535 0000000000
0147. 2846N 08418W 01526 5020 142 036 160 160 037 01540 0000000000
0148 2847N 08420W 01525 5020 139 035 158 158 036 01539 0000000000
0148. 2846N 08421W 01525 5022 131 034 152 152 035 01537 0000000000
0149 2845N 08422W 01522 5024 140 034 156 156 035 01532 0000000000
0149. 2844N 08421W 01525 5024 145 034 160 160 035 01535 0000000000
0150 2845N 08419W 01523 5023 143 037 158 158 038 01535 0000000000
0150. 2846N 08419W 01524 5020 140 038 160 160 039 01539 0000000000
0151 2848N 08420W 01525 5020 137 036 160 160 036 01540 0000000000
0151. 2848N 08422W 01524 5021 133 034 152 152 036 01538 0000000000
0152 2846N 08423W 01523 5023 132 033 154 154 035 01535 0000000000
0152. 2845N 08422W 01524 5024 140 032 160 160 033 01535 0000000000
0153 2846N 08421W 01524 5023 143 033 158 158 036 01536 0000000000
0153. 2847N 08420W 01523 5021 137 038 160 160 039 01537 0000000000
0154 2849N 08421W 01526 5019 135 039 160 160 040 01541 0000000000
0154. 2849N 08423W 01522 5020 132 035 148 148 036 01536 0000000000
0155 2848N 08424W 01527 5022 126 033 138 138 034 01540 0000000000
0155. 2847N 08424W 01522 5024 134 031 156 156 032 01533 0000000000
0156 2847N 08423W 01524 5023 140 030 160 160 031 01535 0000000000
0156. 2848N 08422W 01523 5021 136 035 160 160 038 01537 0000000000

[WindRunner]

Actually, no, it was 8:10 pm EDT that the first fix was made.

And here's a dropsonde they just made, about 30miles from center:

UZNT13 KNHC 130152
XXAA 63019 99295 70835 08193 99008 22001 05027 00068 20805 05533
92741 18605 10050 85466 16003 70105 08200 88999 77999
31313 09608 80124
61616 AF307 0501A ALBERTO OB 08
62626 SPL 2954N08355W 0128 MBL WND 06539 AEV 20601 DLM WND 09541
008852 WL150 05532 075 =
XXBB 63018 99295 70835 08193 00008 22001 11980 19605 22850 16003
33726 11004 44704 10600 55696 06400
21212 00008 05027 11984 05541 22972 07046 33964 07544 44957 08050
55941 09050 66935 09546 77921 10550 88912 11044 99905 12545 11899
12539 22894 12546 33885 12550 44856 13059 55852 14054 66696 16558
31313 09608 80124
61616 AF307 0501A ALBERTO OB 08
62626 SPL 2954N08355W 0128 MBL WND 06539 AEV 20601 DLM WND 09541
008852 WL150 05532 075 =

[SouthFloridawx]

USAF High Density Observations
Storm Name: ALBERTO (01L)
Mission Number: 05
Flight ID: AF307
Flt Data Number: 18
Latest Recon Position: 74 mi SSE of Apalachicola, Florida

01: 01:47:00; 28.7°N 84.3°W; PA: 4997ft; D-Val: -75 ft; Wnd: SE (145°) @ 45mph (Max: 45mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5036ft
02: 01:47:30; 28.8°N 84.3°W; PA: 5007ft; D-Val: -66 ft; Wnd: SE (142°) @ 41mph (Max: 43mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5052ft
03: 01:48:00; 28.8°N 84.3°W; PA: 5003ft; D-Val: -66 ft; Wnd: SE (139°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); T: 60F; D: 60F; Radar Alt: 5049ft
04: 01:48:30; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 5003ft; D-Val: -72 ft; Wnd: SE (131°) @ 39mph (Max: 40mph); T: 59F; D: 59F; Radar Alt: 5043ft
05: 01:49:00; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 4993ft; D-Val: -79 ft; Wnd: SE (140°) @ 39mph (Max: 40mph); T: 60F; D: 60F; Radar Alt: 5026ft
06: 01:49:30; 28.7°N 84.4°W; PA: 5003ft; D-Val: -79 ft; Wnd: SE (145°) @ 39mph (Max: 40mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5036ft
07: 01:50:00; 28.8°N 84.3°W; PA: 4997ft; D-Val: -75 ft; Wnd: SE (143°) @ 43mph (Max: 44mph); T: 60F; D: 60F; Radar Alt: 5036ft
08: 01:50:30; 28.8°N 84.3°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -66 ft; Wnd: SE (140°) @ 44mph (Max: 45mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5049ft
09: 01:51:00; 28.8°N 84.3°W; PA: 5003ft; D-Val: -66 ft; Wnd: SE (137°) @ 41mph (Max: 41mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5052ft
10: 01:51:30; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -69 ft; Wnd: SE (133°) @ 39mph (Max: 41mph); T: 59F; D: 59F; Radar Alt: 5046ft
11: 01:52:00; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 4997ft; D-Val: -75 ft; Wnd: SE (132°) @ 38mph (Max: 40mph); T: 60F; D: 60F; Radar Alt: 5036ft
12: 01:52:30; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -79 ft; Wnd: SE (140°) @ 37mph (Max: 38mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5036ft
13: 01:53:00; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -75 ft; Wnd: SE (143°) @ 38mph (Max: 41mph); T: 60F; D: 60F; Radar Alt: 5039ft
14: 01:53:30; 28.8°N 84.3°W; PA: 4997ft; D-Val: -69 ft; Wnd: SE (137°) @ 44mph (Max: 45mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5043ft
15: 01:54:00; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 5007ft; D-Val: -62 ft; Wnd: SE (135°) @ 45mph (Max: 46mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5056ft
16: 01:54:30; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 4993ft; D-Val: -66 ft; Wnd: SE (132°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); T: 59F; D: 59F; Radar Alt: 5039ft
17: 01:55:00; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 5010ft; D-Val: -72 ft; Wnd: SE (126°) @ 38mph (Max: 39mph); T: 57F; D: 57F; Radar Alt: 5052ft
18: 01:55:30; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 4993ft; D-Val: -79 ft; Wnd: SE (134°) @ 36mph (Max: 37mph); T: 60F; D: 60F; Radar Alt: 5030ft
19: 01:56:00; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 5000ft; D-Val: -75 ft; Wnd: SE (140°) @ 35mph (Max: 36mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5036ft
20: 01:56:30; 28.8°N 84.4°W; PA: 4997ft; D-Val: -69 ft; Wnd: SE (136°) @ 40mph (Max: 44mph); T: 61F; D: 61F; Radar Alt: 5043ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[clfenwi]

Dropsonde decode 0152Z

29.5N 83.5 W

Surface 1008 mb
Temp 22 Dewpoint Depression 0.1
Wind 27 knots 050

1000 mb level 68 meters
Temp 20.8/DD 0.5
Wind 33 knots 055

925 mb level 741 meters
Temp 18.6 / DD 0.5
Wind 50 knots 100

850 mb level 1466 meters
Temp 16 DD 0.3