MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0418 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/SWRN SD AND THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122118Z - 122315Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS MAY
   DEVELOP EAST OF MAIN SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN WY...AND OVER THE BLACK
   HILLS OF SWRN SD IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. RELATIVELY MARGINAL
   SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD NOT BE
   ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR A WW.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF LOW-MID 50S DEWPTS EXTENDING NWWD
   FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE NWWD INTO SCENTRAL MT. RECENT FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CINH WAS DECREASING RAPIDLY JUST EAST OF A
   SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CYS TO SHR. INCIPIENT CONVECTION
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SVR IN THE NEXT 1-2
   HRS /BY 22Z/ AS IT MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY. ALSO
   MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAKENING CINH MAY ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BLACK HILLS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL
   WINDS /20 KTS/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA
   SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD MAINLY SUPPORT MULTICELL TSTM
   MODE. HOWEVER...MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/
   COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
   ISOLATED DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...
   
   42830289 43830307 44580360 44640540 44350679 43910697
   42860609 41710512 41180449 41250335 41850290

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM AND FAR WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...
   
   VALID 122147Z - 122345Z
   
   CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE RATON MESA REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS UNION COUNTY NM. AREA
   EAST OF WW 468 WILL BE MONITORED FOR A NEW WW IN THE NEXT COUPLE
   HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH OVER THE
   FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. NORTH OF WW 468 ACROSS
   NERN CO...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   ANOTHER WW.
   
   A CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE RATON MESA/NERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS INTO A MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ EXTENDING ACROSS THE
   NWRN TX AND WRN OK PANHANDLES. EWD EXTENT OF SVR THREAT INTO SERN CO
   WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS DUE TO PRESENCE OF
   MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. DESPITE UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO
   BUILD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   EXISTS /35-40 KTS/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 10-15
   KTS. THUS STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY SHOW SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND POTENTIAL.  FURTHER
   NORTH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS EXIST...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW
   WAS MORE VEERED...SUPPORTING SIMILAR VERTICAL SHEAR AS AREAS SOUTH.
   ISOLATED STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INVOF COLO SPRINGS AND
   THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SVR IN THE NEXT HR OR SO UNDER THE
   PRESENCE OF THIS MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE DEN AREA IN THE SAME TIME FRAME AS LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED INVOF OF DEN CYCLONE. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN NERN CO.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   39190345 37380285 36600142 35500143 35040233 35700493
   36320505 39350549 40600533 40840409 40680362

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0528 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND WRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122228Z - 130030Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL MTNS IN ID AND SWRN MT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. AIRMASS OVER
   NWRN MT AND NRN ID SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND A WW MAY BE
   NEEDED BY 00Z.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU OVER THE NRN CENTRAL
   MTS OF ID AND FAR SWRN MT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING THROUGH ERN ORE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING CINH BASED ON
   RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH APPROACHING UPPER FORCING AND
   CONTINUED HEATING/UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP BY 00Z. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR DISCRETE CELLS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. MAIN
   LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
   CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF UPPER JET AND IT/S EFFECTS ON HEATING THE REST
   OF THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...OTX...
   
   47091308 48451404 49051439 48471682 46461562 45401484
   44771435 45381186

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0533 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467...
   
   VALID 122233Z - 130000Z
   
   CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL 01Z EXPIRATION.  NEW WW
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH
   CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND
   WILMINGTON...WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.  HOWEVER...MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY THROUGH
   00-01Z SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/THERMAL LOW
   ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   HEATED INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP.
   THEREAFTER...STABILIZING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOWS AND ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING
   TRENDS.  DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE
   REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EAST OF BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH...IS
   PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS BY 03Z...WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH MORE
   RAPIDLY.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
   34038257 34288198 34458099 35128033 35527994 35597927
   35567795 35717671 35697568 35237548 34897624 34567720
   33997760 33727822 33527922 33838022 33698094 33508155
   33348227 33408312

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0646 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 469...
   
   VALID 122346Z - 130145Z
   
   TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT COULD INCREASE
   LATER THIS EVENING FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.  A NEW
   WW MAY BE ISSUED BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION OF WW 469.
   
   LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
   EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TROPICAL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE
   CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.  AS ALBERTO
   CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...BAND OF
   CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD...INLAND ACROSS THE BIG
   BEND...PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS GAINESVILLE DURING THE 03-06Z TIME
   FRAME...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA.  MODIFICATION OF RAIN-
   COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER TO ONE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT
   ...IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REGIME BENEATH LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...
   DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BUT
   RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD INCREASE IN THE IMMEDIATE TAMPA AS
   EARLY AS 03Z.  UNTIL THEN...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SEEMS MINIMAL.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   29068290 29628300 30228274 30408207 30178143 29128152
   28578194 27718239 27338271 27708303

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0714 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE...SRN WA...NRN ID AND NWRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...472...
   
   VALID 130014Z - 130215Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY NRN/ERN PORTIONS
   OF WW 470...AS SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW OF INITIAL ACTIVITY. OVER WW 472...CLUSTER OF
   SVR STORMS OVER NERN ORE WILL MAINTAIN INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING INTO
   NRN ID OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT
   REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE ID/MT BORDER AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
   ACROSS THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF WW 472 AND JUST EAST OF WW 472.
   
   WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH
   ERN ORE...WAS SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF STG-SVR STORMS OVER WW 472 /NERN
   ORE/ WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS.
   SEVERAL STORMS HAVE LIKEWISE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND
   THE SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH THESE STORMS AS
   THEY MOVE INTO NRN ID. TO THE WEST THE SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER
   NERN PORTIONS OF WW 470 AHEAD OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE BUT HAS
   LIKELY BEEN DIMINISHED OVER  SRN WW 470 DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE
   WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH MAY BE
   CLEARED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED SVR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OVER THE BITTEROOTS OF
   FAR WRN MT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF
   INSTABILITY EAST OF WW 472 SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY
   OF ANY OF THIS SVR THREAT...AND A NEW WW EAST OF WW 472 IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
   
   46662075 46512080 46132144 43972124 43941841 43431842
   44831480 45411385 46761340 47801429 47571667 47141928

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...471...
   
   VALID 130049Z - 130245Z
   
   CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND RECENTLY...BUT REDEVELOPMENT
   AND INTENSIFICATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AND
   TERRAIN/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR
   THREAT FOR THE NRN HALF OF WW 468 AND MOST OF 471 FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HRS.
   
   VIS SAT AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING
   GENERALLY NWWD WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SEVERAL ONGOING GENERALLY
   WEAK CELLS MAY FLARE UP AND POSE A SVR THREAT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
   TIME WHEN THESE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NRN
   HALF OF WW 468 AND WW 471. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR AND ALONG THE
   IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE AS UPSLOPE FLOW GETS LOCALLY ENHANCED AS
   AIRMASS REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED /PER THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING/. THE
   LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING...AND
   MAY SUPPORT THE SVR THREAT INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW/S 468 AND 470 FOR
   A COUPLE HRS AFTER DARK...GIVEN THE MOIST 850 MB LEVEL AND
   RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION NOTED ON THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
   
   41080259 41060467 39190521 37020504 36850465 37000303
   38570289

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1165
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 473...
   
   VALID 130453Z - 130630Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.
   
   VWP FROM TAMPA NOW INDICATES 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN
   1 KM OF THE SURFACE...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/OBSERVATIONAL DATA
   SUGGEST SIMILAR FLOW DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEAST OF TAMPA TOWARD
   NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGEST NORTHEAST OF
   TAMPA...WHERE SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT
   IN THE VICINITY OF REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
   MODIFYING RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS.  SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS
   REGION ARE NOW IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THROUGH 06-08Z WEST/NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO INTO
   THE OCALA AREA...AS CENTER OF ALBERTO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH
   THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   28248157 28028181 28128243 28508244 28898246 29188227
   29088167

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL...NRN FL AND EXTREME SERN/SCNTRL GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 130719Z - 130845Z
   
   TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NEWD ABOUT 80
   MILES SW OF CEDAR KEY FL AT 07Z.  SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT
   EWD FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS NRN FL JUST S OF KCTY-KGNV-KSGJ.
   STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS NCNTRL FL AND
   ALBERTO SHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK ENEWD TOWARD NCNTRL FL THROUGH
   THE MORNING HOURS. 
   
   CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND ALBERTO WITH THE
   STRONGEST BAND CURRENTLY MOVING NWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF THE
   CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA.  OTHER BANDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE
   FARTHER W OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA.  VWP DERIVED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
   THAT THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL TURNING HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NE FROM
   EARLY IN THE EVE...MAINLY FROM THE LAKELAND AREA NWD WITH 0-1KM
   SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS.  AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD...HIGHEST
   TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST WHERE THEY APPROACH THE WARM FRONT.
   
   
   THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE INCREASING ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER AREA AS
   THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLIGHTLY NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A
   SHARP GRADIENT IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER SRN GA.  AS A
   RESULT...ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
   NRN FL AND EXTREME SRN GA.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   26508249 28998390 29588491 30878432 31648202 31178123
   29538074 27868051 26368091

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 473...474...
   
   VALID 131121Z - 131145Z
   
   WT473 HAS A 12Z EXPIRATION AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL
   WFO/S...A DECISION WILL BE MADE WHETHER TO ISSUE A NEW WW. 
   
   DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND
   ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO HAS BEEN ROTATING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN FL.
    THIS BAND HAS LARGELY MOVED OFFSHORE...EXCEPT THE SRN END THAT
   TRAILS SWWD ACROSS THE CAPE AND INTO THE NAPLES AREA.  PER LATEST
   VWP FROM TBW/MLB...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED ACROSS
   CNTRL FL AND EFFECTIVELY LESSENED THE 0-1KM SRH.  FARTHER TO THE
   N...JAX VWP REMAINS FAVORABLY SHEARED FOR TORNADOES.  BUT...SATL
   SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WRAPPING NEWD ACROSS THE
   REGION.  THIS MAY PROVE DETRIMENTAL IN SUPPORTING SUSTAINED BANDING
   STRUCTURES/CONVECTION.
   
   PRIND THAT THERE WILL BE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MAINLY AN ISOLD
   DAMAGING WIND GUST ACROSS CNTRL FL THROUGH LATE MORNING.  FARTHER
   N...WITHIN THE RICHER HELICITY ENVIRONMENT...GIVEN A SUSTAINED
   STORM...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN WT474.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   26428203 30298372 31478232 31238040 28508017 26608131

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0955 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND FAR NW MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131455Z - 131700Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY ONGOING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
   OF THE LATE MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   THROUGH WA ATTM. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK IN THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET
   EXISTING ACROSS NV...ORE...ID AND WA WITH A SMALL POCKET OF STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCATED ACROSS FAR ERN WA AND NRN ID. THE
   SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NRN ID.
   HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO THE WEAK
   INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...
   
   46801600 46661651 46801701 47261715 48901673 48751512
   47491560

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC...SE GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131801Z - 131930Z
   
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN SC
   AND ERN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING
   CONSIDERED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF ERN GA AND SRN SC FOR THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST
   OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
   AROUND THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER OF A 50 KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET EXISTS JUST OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THIS FEATURE IS
   CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
   STRONG SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH DISCRETE
   CELLS THAT MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL ROTATING STORMS ARE
   CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 50-75 MILES OFFSHORE FROM SAVANNA GA. AS
   THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE
   TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...
   
   31278102 31608178 32048183 32858114 33588017 33417943
   32757918 31798030

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131841Z - 132015Z
   
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS STORMS INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE SD. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
   NWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN SD. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS
   NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM WRN ND INTO ERN SD ALONG THE SRN SIDE OF
   60 KT MID-LEVEL JET. CELLS ARE INITIATING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
   REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ALONG A SFC TROUGH AND STRONG GRADIENT
   OF INSTABILITY. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED
   STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE SD. IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN
   INITIATE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F...THEN A
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
   
   43739732 43839946 44450009 45469974 45779823 45149685

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN ID / FAR WRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131852Z - 131945Z
   
   WW MAY BE ISSUED BY 20Z FOR PARTS OF WRN/NRN ID INTO FAR WRN MT.
   
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG/E OF CLOUD BAND/BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH
   TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AT MSO...AND BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS
   RESULTED IN MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AT PRESENT OVER WRN MT AND
   ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NRN ID/MT BORDER.  ADDITIONAL HEATING
   EXPECTED TO AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION/WEAKENING INHIBITION FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
   INDICATED CU ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ID/
   WRN MT WHERE STRONGEST INSOLATION IS OCCURRING.
   
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND
   BOWING SEGMENTS.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED
   AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX APPROACHES REGION FROM THE SOUTH...MAINTAINING
   THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
   
   48681678 48991663 49011411 47761331 46671298 44751365
   44641453 43531492 43091585 43861727 48741698

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132003Z - 132200Z
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL SD LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 21Z ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST
   TO EAST FROM NEAR SPEARFISH TO PIERRE SD. SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F AND THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME
   MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CUMULUS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE BLACK
   HILLS AND FURTHER EAST BETWEEN PIERRE AND HURON SD. AS THE CAPPING
   INVERSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
   RIDGE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS
   COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SUGGEST
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
   
   43189908 42990210 43470377 44630355 44940130 44589880

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132037Z - 132230Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE TX OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE ACTIVITY.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO
   SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR WACO INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG
   AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. THE
   STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST
   AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS EAST TX.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES IN PLACE WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR MAINLY
   ABOVE 700 MB. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
   THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. THE LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
   
   29189489 29359542 29689577 30359578 30679503 30219410
   29369437

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0538 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477...
   
   VALID 132238Z - 140015Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.
   
   SHARP UPPER RIDGING IS GENERALLY INHIBITIVE...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY.  THIS IS OCCURRING MAINLY WHERE
   OROGRAPHY/STRONG HEATING WEAKENED INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY JUST SOUTH
   OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS...AND
   JUST NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN.  GIVEN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000
   J/KG...FAVORABLE SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VEERING OF WIND
   FIELDS FROM EASTERLY/SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH HEIGHT...WILL
   SUPPORT INTENSIFYING STORMS THROUGH 00-01Z.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
   
   44730403 45100314 44760220 44650006 44409863 43999837
   43559863 43259965 43410026 43760086 43800142 43430261
   43460349 44030436

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN ID / FAR WRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476...
   
   VALID 132307Z - 140030Z
   
   INITIAL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE WRN TROUGH NOW MOVING
   THROUGH SRN ID...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF
   MSO TO EKO. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
   CLOUD DECK OVER ID IS INDICATIVE OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC JET MAXIMUM
   ADVANCING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NV.
   
   THE 1900 UTC TFX RAOB SHOWED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH A
   WELL MIXED...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON INSOLATION
   PRIOR TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO MLCAPES NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000
   J/KG OVER NORTHWEST MT TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER THE
   SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS AND TREASURE VALLEY. AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS AT OR ABOVE
   45 TO 50 KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
   
   43201697 49021675 48981356 43301413

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0644 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN GA THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 475...
   
   VALID 132344Z - 140145Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.  AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED BY SCHEDULED
   02Z EXPIRATION OF WW 475.
   
   TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REFLECTED BY MID/UPPER 70S DEW
   POINTS REMAINS OFFSHORE...AHEAD OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE EVIDENT
   EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO AREAS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
   COAST. INTERSECTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE
   APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR MAIN...GROWING CLUSTER OF
   CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CHARLESTON...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHEN/IF
   TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INLAND.
   
   HOWEVER...DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK CONDITIONAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE
   COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   THE EVENING...EVEN WITH ONSET OF WEAK DIURNAL COOLING...AND LARGE
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE
   TO POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...AS ITS CENTER LIFTS NORTH OF
   WAYCROSS GA TOWARD THE SAVANNAH VALLEY THROUGH 03-06Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   32768191 33478180 33988086 34378015 35017896 34287807
   33407866 32598009 32158088 31958132 32238166

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0940 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477...
   
   VALID 140240Z - 140415Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
   ADDITIONAL WW BY 04Z EXPIRATION.
   
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...AND
   IS PROBABLY BEING SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...FORMING AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   DECOUPLES.  THIS JET MAY STRENGTHEN UP TO 40 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF HIGH PLAINS
   THERMAL RIDGE. THOUGH CAPPING BENEATH UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
   PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY...AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS
   POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03-06Z...NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF PIERRE
   INTO AREAS WEST OF CHAMBERLAIN. 
   
   IF THIS OCCURS...OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES COULD BE
   SIGNIFICANT...SUPPORTING A FEW DOWNBURSTS...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A
   SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW
   IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL
   MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   43760236 44140205 44110076 44029952 43899913 43379905
   42880002 42870053 43220164 43280216