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TexasStooge
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#301 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Jun 13, 2006 6:59 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV AND UT...NRN AZ...SERN
CA DESERTS AND EXTREME WRN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. W OF
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RH. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NWRN MT SWD INTO
WRN ID AND NWRN NV...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. STORMS
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY ACROSS NWRN NV AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THEY REFORM FARTHER E INTO NRN UT. FARTHER S UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS...IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT AND DRY WITH WEAKER
WINDS...BUT LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND POTENTIAL FOR PLUME DOMINATED
FIRES GIVEN HIGH HAINES ENVIRONMENT. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY HOT
ACROSS TX WHERE LOCAL DROUGHT EXISTS AND RH WILL BE LOW.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NV AND UT...NRN AZ...SERN CA
DESERTS AND EXTREME WRN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SCATTERED DRY THUNDER
(NV INTO UT)
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND WILL NEAR
EXTREME LEVELS AS WINDS INCREASE FURTHER. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG
ACROSS ERN NV...NWRN AZ AND WRN UT WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS NEAR
30 MPH. GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT...BUT RH LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN
CRITICALLY LOW RANGING FROM NEAR 15 PERCENT OVER NRN NV TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FARTHER S.
IN ADDITION TO HIGH WINDS AND LOW RH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NRN AND NWRN NV. THESE STORMS
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY STORMS...BUT WILL CONTAIN VERY
STRONG WINDS. FARTHER S...SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NWD ACROSS WRN AZ AND INTO UT. THIS MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN UT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
...SRN AND ERN AZ / WRN NM / SRN CO...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN FAVOR PLUME
DOMINATED FIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING THROUGH A
VERY DEEP LAYER WILL PROMOTE THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
...MUCH OF TX...
IT WILL AGAIN BE VERY HOT OVER MUCH OF TX WITH HIGHS AROUND 100. RH
LEVELS WILL DIP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT INTO CENTRAL AND SRN TX...AND
NEAR 10-15 PERCENT OVER WRN TX. SELY WINDS AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONLY AVERAGE NEAR 10 MPH...BUT HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-2O
MAY OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT IN
LOCALLY DRY AREAS.
..JEWELL.. 06/13/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ AND SRN UT...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV...CENTRAL UT...WRN CO AND
THE AREA IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE EXTREME AREA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
CO...SERN UT...NERN AZ...NRN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND SW AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE OVER NRN
AZ...ERN UT...WRN CO AND INTO WRN WY. SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO OCCUR MAINLY OVER WRN CO...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NRN NM...NERN AZ AND ERN UT.
ELSEWHERE...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
INDUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS
ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ AND SRN UT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT /
MDT TO HIGH HAINES
WINDS WILL INCREASE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVES OVERHEAD. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME
VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE WHICH WILL PROMOTE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR ONGOING FIRES AND GIVEN SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE
TOPS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN NV...CENTRAL UT...WRN CO AND THE
AREA IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE EXTREME AREA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LOW RH
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS
OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL
AZ...WRN UT AND WRN NM. FURTHER...RH LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER
ACROSS NV AND WRN UT GIVEN COOLER AIR NEAR THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15 PERCENT. IT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY HOT
ACROSS SRN AZ WHERE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
ONGOING...ALONG WITH VERY LOW RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SRN EXTENT OF
CRITICAL AREA IN AZ IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
AND COULD BE EXTENDED FARTHER S IN NEXT OUTLOOK.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
CO...SERN UT...NERN AZ...NRN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS...LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS
COOLING ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS WELL AS SWLY UPSLOPE
WINDS AND STRONG HEATING WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY
AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS AS A RESULT OF LIGHTNING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER CO...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED STRIKES ARE
EXPECTED OVER FAR NRN NM AND PERHAPS ERN UT/NERN AZ.
...FAR SRN AZ...CENTRAL AND SRN NM...
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST HERE WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
WEATHER AND SEVERE DROUGHT. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS POINTS
N...BUT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH
STRONGER GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. HAINES INDEX WILL BE HIGH...PROMOTING
PLUME DOMINATION.
..JEWELL.. 06/13/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
VALID 151200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION OF YESTERDAY...KEEPING A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SW AND MOVING IT EWD WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER DAY (6/15) OF HIGH WIND AND LOW
RH TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF AZ AND UT...AS WELL AS SRN/WRN CO AND WRN
NM. MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD RESULT IN AN
EXTREMELY CRITICAL SITUATION OVER NRN AZ. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN APPEAR LIKELY OVER MUCH OF CO INTO NRN NM
6/15. AS THE TROUGH MOVES E...WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH CRITICAL IF WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH ON 6/16 OVER SRN
NM.
..JEWELL.. 06/13/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
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Contact:
#302 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Jun 14, 2006 6:43 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO/FAR NORTHWEST NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NV/MUCH OF
UT/NORTHERN AZ/NORTHWEST NM/WESTERN CO/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
CO/NORTHERN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITH BREAKDOWN OF UPPER RIDGE...POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS AND A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO A BROAD PORTION OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
WILL ALSO EXIST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NORTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO/NORTHWEST NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS/WIND SHIFT AND LOW RH/WARM
TEMPERATURES
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY/THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN UT INTO WESTERN CO/NORTHERN AZ/NORTHWEST NM. A
STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WITH COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WILL EXIST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT /WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH/...WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSING FRONT. THE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND WIND SHIFT
WILL PROMOTE RAPID FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD OF ONGOING FIRES AND NEW FIRE
STARTS. A DRY/WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND HIGH
HAINES INDICES...WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 7-12 PERCENT.
RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING
ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR SOUTHEAST NV/MUCH OF UT/NORTHERN
AZ/FAR NORTHWEST NM/WESTERN CO/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RH/WARM
TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHTER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OUTSIDE OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA. WITH WARM/DRY
CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS AZ AND NM/...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 15-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE WY...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL THREAT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
CO/NORTHERN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH
UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES/STRONG HEATING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CO INTO NORTHERN NM. COMBINATION OF
MODEST INSTABILITY AND A DRY/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS
FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WINDS VIA CONVECTIVE
DOWNDRAFTS.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO MUCH OF NEB. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH.
ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL FAVOR FAST SPREAD OF ANY ONGOING/NEW
FIRES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE
TEMPERED BY MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VIA MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND/OR GREEN-UP.
..GUYER.. 06/14/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
AZ AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ/MUCH OF
NM/FAR SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHERN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES ON THURSDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONING TOWARD THE
EASTERN STATES. ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...A HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL AZ
AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH/WARM TEMPERATURES
VERY STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH EXTREME DROUGHT AND LOW RH/WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL AZ AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL NM
ON THURSDAY. WITHIN WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...A BELT OF STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN
WARM TEMPERATURES/DRY AIRMASS AND DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING...SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-50
MPH. THE STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ADVERSELY IMPACT ONGOING FIRES
WITH FAST FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 8-12
PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ/MUCH OF
NM/FAR SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHERN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND LOW RH/WARM
TEMPERATURES
WHILE THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS THE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL AREA...MODERATELY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH/WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN/NORTHERN AZ INTO FAR SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHERN CO AND MUCH OF
NM. SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO INTO MUCH OF NM...WHICH COULD YIELD NEW
FIRE STARTS/LOCALLY ERRATIC WINDS.
..GUYER.. 06/14/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
VALID 151200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION OF YESTERDAY...KEEPING A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SW AND MOVING IT EWD WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER DAY (6/15) OF HIGH WIND AND LOW
RH TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF AZ AND UT...AS WELL AS SRN/WRN CO AND WRN
NM. MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD RESULT IN AN
EXTREMELY CRITICAL SITUATION OVER NRN AZ. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN APPEAR LIKELY OVER MUCH OF CO INTO NRN NM
6/15. AS THE TROUGH MOVES E...WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH CRITICAL IF WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH ON 6/16 OVER SRN
NM.
..JEWELL.. 06/13/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
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Contact:
#303 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Jun 15, 2006 10:58 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF AZ/MUCH OF NM/FAR
SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHERN CO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST CO
AND NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP A RATHER HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH/WARM
TEMPERATURES/EXTREME DROUGHT
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY/THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM. AS WESTERN STATES TROUGH
MIGRATES EASTWARD...STRONG CORE OF MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-35 MPH WILL BE
COMMON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 MPH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND VERY STRONG WINDS/HIGH HAINES
INDICES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 5-10 PERCENT...WITH RELATIVELY POOR
RH RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF AZ/MUCH OF NM/FAR SOUTHEAST
UT/SOUTHERN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH/WARM TEMPERATURES
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF AZ/MUCH OF NM AND FAR SOUTHEAST UT AND
SOUTHERN CO. A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/NORTHERN AZ THIS
MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY...CAUSING A SHIFT IN WINDS TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 15-30 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 8-12 PERCENT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST CO
AND NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS
COMBINATION OF UPPER TROUGH AND HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL NM. HIGH BASED/DRY NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL PROMOTE
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS VIA CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS...WITH NEW FIRE STARTS
POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY DRY LIGHTNING.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30
MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE MODERATELY
STRONG WINDS COULD ADVERSELY IMPACT ANY ONGOING FIRES...SOME CLOUD
COVER AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/RH VALUES WILL PRECLUDE
A CRITICAL OUTLOOK.
..GUYER.. 06/15/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
RH/WARM TEMPERATURES
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM INTO FAR WEST TX.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NM/SOUTHWEST TX. GIVEN THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 DEGREES F
COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS AZ AND NM...ALTHOUGH HOT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM INTO
SOUTHWEST TX.
..GUYER.. 06/15/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
VALID 171200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING WINDS WILL YIELD A DIMINISHING FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
AZ/NM/FAR WEST TX INTO DAY 3/SAT JUNE 17. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM/DRY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BROAD SCALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST.
ELSEWHERE...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY BRING WINDY/WARM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON JUNE 19...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER.
..GUYER.. 06/15/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
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Contact:
#304 Postby TexasStooge » Fri Jun 16, 2006 6:53 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM/SOUTHEAST
AZ/FAR WEST TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NM AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AZ/FAR WEST TX TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM/SOUTHEAST
AZ/FAR WEST TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS AND LOW RH/WARM TEMPERATURES
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM INTO FAR WEST TX.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NM/SOUTHWEST TX. IN PRESENCE OF SEVERE-EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...HOT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS/HIGH PLAINS...WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES
OF 8-12 PERCENT.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL EXIST
ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NAMELY FROM WEST
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. ALTHOUGH ANY FIRES MAY BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY THE GUSTY
WINDS...ADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/AFTERNOON RH SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY.
..GUYER.. 06/16/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEACCELERATE/MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PREVALENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS DOMINANT ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
AFTER AN ACTIVE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DIMINISHED WIND SPEEDS.
..GUYER.. 06/16/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...There's some good news.
Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006
VALID 181200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BROAD SCALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
MODEST...WITH LOCALIZED/TERRAIN-DRIVEN REGIMES GENERALLY DOMINANT.
ELSEWHERE...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A NORTHERN TIER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING WINDY/WARM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON JUNE 19...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER.
..GUYER.. 06/16/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#305 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:33 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM NOW OFF THE BC COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 40-50 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK. RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.
...GREAT BASIN/NRN UT...
WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NV/NRN UT
TODAY...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE 80S AND 90S. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLD
HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS ERN ORE/SRN ID WHERE MORE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...BUILDUPS OR ISOLD STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS NV/NRN UT GIVEN INCREASED LARGE
SCALE ASCENT.
...NRN PLAINS...
BREEZY W/NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO NERN ONTARIO. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
NCNTRL ND INTO NW MN AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND TO MINIMIZE FIRE THREAT. ACROSS NCNTRL/WRN SD
AND SCNTRL ND...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL DEVELOP. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20-25
PERCENT INVOF PIR TO FSD. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW AFTN TSTMS...SO ANY
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY PCPN.
..TAYLOR.. 06/18/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR UT/WY/WRN CO/EXTREME ERN NV...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WRN CONUS ON MONDAY WILL BRING
WINDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE NRN GREAT
BASIN TO WY BY MON EVENING. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OVER WY....AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SRN WY
INTO NRN UT/CNTRL GREAT BASIN BY 20/00Z. VERY LOW RH VALUES COMBINED
WITH STRONG SWLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - UT/WY/WRN CO/EXTREME ERN NV...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/MIN
RH VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT/LONG TERM DROUGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ON MONDAY...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT STRONG WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IN ADDITION...MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 80S/90S WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THERE WILL SOME
THREAT OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...MAINLY ACROSS NERN NV AND NRN UT INTO
WY ALONG THE SFC FRONT. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD
DRY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE FAVORABLE
WIND/HUMIDITY PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE...AS TEMPS HEAT UP
INTO THE 90S. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT WEST OF
THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AND RANGE FROM 15-20 PERCENT FARTHER EAST.
THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES WILL BE INCREASED ACROSS ERN NM AND THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES.
..TAYLOR.. 06/18/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006
VALID 201200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
UT/CO/NRN NM INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. NRN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LEE TROUGH TO PERSIST
IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED. IN
ADDITION TO MODERATELY STRONG SFC WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
ACROSS UT/CO...DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL IN THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF A HIGHER
CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS FROM NERN UT INTO WCNTRL CO...AND THEN ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES ON TUE. GIVEN EXPECTED INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...LITTLE WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR WITH STORMS.
STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE FIRE
RISKS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TUE/WED. WRN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A THREAT OF MTN TSTMS ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES.
..TAYLOR.. 06/18/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#306 Postby TexasStooge » Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:57 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS
REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATION
TODAY. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE
PERIOD...GENERATING MODERATE WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES/INTERMTN REGION. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NATION...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF ERN NV...MUCH OF
UT...NRN AZ/NRN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLE...WRN/CENTRAL CO AND SRN WY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
AN SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TODAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SWLY
WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS TO
A GENERATE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERMTN/ROCKIES REGION. THE STRONGEST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER ERN UT/WRN CO AND SRN WY...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND WHERE THE GREATEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO JUST REACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLD AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN AZ/NRN NM...AS DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS MOMENTUM TRANSFER DESPITE SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS
THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS...NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT WILL
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE REGION.
FURTHER EAST...A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS OF ERN NM
AND TX/OK PANHANDLES NWD INTO ERN CO WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION...AS SLY WINDS INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 20-25 MPH AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPTS
GENERATE MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT.
...ERN CO/ERN NM...
WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER ERN CO TODAY...AS THE MAIN
LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER...LOW RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED AS DEEP
MIXING OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ON THE SRN EDGE OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING...HIGH BASED AND INITIALLY DRY TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CO/NM FRONT RANGE.. ANY OF THESE TSTMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND LITTLE
RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
DRY TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LIMITED AS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION TO WETTER TSTMS SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.
..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UNDER A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY TWO. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...MODERATE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH...SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THIS REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...UPPER
RIDGING ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED HEAT WAVE OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS WWD INTO THE DESERT
SW. GENERALLY LIGHT WLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEST ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS
UNDER THE PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGING.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO SRN WY...
IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE WNWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
SRN/ERN MT AND WY. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER SRN/ERN MT. EXPECTED
DAY ONE RAINFALL OVER MT...AND MARGINALLY LOW RH READINGS OVER WY
/15-20 PERCENT/ WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE ATTM.
...ERN NM...WRN TX...
MODERATE WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT A LOW
LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST
SWLY WINDS /20-30 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH OVER ERN NM. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AS A
RESULT OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH TX AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THIS REGION. THE RESULT OF INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
BE MIN RH READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE WINDS AND NEAR CRITICAL
RH READINGS...ISOLATED-SCT HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE TROUGH OVER ERN/CENTRAL NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS. INITIALLY SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE DRY
WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND POTENTIAL FIRE STARTS. BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
VALID 211200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERMTN WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGING RESIDES MOST OVER THE REGION. OCCASIONAL
NEAR CRITICAL CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
THAT AN AREA WILL NOT BE OUTLOOKED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...VERT HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS WILL BE
COMMON OVER MOST OF THE WEST ON DAYS 3-4 /WED-THU/.
BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS 5-8/...MODEL CONSENSUS
AND PATTERN RECOGNITION INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHOULD
SHIFT NWD TO A POSITION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/ERN GREAT BASIN...AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES. COMBINED WITH SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH NM ON DAYS 4/5...LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT NWWD INTO MUCH OF AZ/NV AND PORTIONS OF CA/UT
ON DAYS 5-7. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT VERY DRY/HOT CONDITIONS...ONE OR
MORE DRY THUNDERSTORM EVENTS APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#307 Postby TexasStooge » Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:57 am
Code: Select all
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
WITH VALUES AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10 TO 20 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE GREATEST FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVER AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE ANY
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.
EXERCISE EXTRA CAUTION TO PREVENT THE START OR SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. REMEMBER THAT WILDFIRES CAN RESULT IN THE DESTRUCTION
OF GRASSLANDS... LIVESTOCK...FORESTS...AND PROPERTY.
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TexasStooge
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#308 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:44 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HIGH
BASED INITIALLY DRY TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FRONT RANGE
OF ERN CO/ERN AND CENTRAL NM. FURTHER WEST...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN STATES UNDER
THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY FLAT BUT STRONG UPPER RIDGE. VERY LOW
RH READINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE TEMPERATURES...BUT SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT SO NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN NM/FAR SERN CO...THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE....SWRN KS AND FAR NWRN OK...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-20 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. MODERATE WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WERE ALREADY OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DECREASES AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATE. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASED
EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL AID IN FALLING DEWPTS INTO THE 20S/30S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH 40S IN FAR NWRN OK/ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW-MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FROM THE
SWRN STATES EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 95-105 DEGREE RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW DEWPTS AND
MODERATE WINDS TO PRODUCE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT SLOWLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RECOVERING RH READINGS SHOULD END THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT BY AROUND 03Z. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
RH/WIND THREAT...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS...SOME INITIALLY DRY...ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM ECENTRAL NM NEWD
INTO FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A CRITICAL DRY TSTM THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
...SRN WY...
SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MODERATE WSWLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES PROGRESSES EWD OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED...MIN RH READINGS WILL BE
MARGINAL /15-20 PERCENT/ AND A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
...REMAINDER OF ERN NM...ERN CO AND CENTRAL NM....
ISOLATED /INITIALLY DRY/ TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
ERN CO AGAIN TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH...MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL/ERN NM AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS.
A VERY DEEPLY MIXED/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THAT MOST TSTMS WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...WITH A TRANSITION TO WET WITH TIME OVER ERN NM.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH THAT A CRITICAL
DRY TSTM THREAT SHOULD NOT OCCUR.
..CROSBIE.. 06/20/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FOUND TOMORROW ACROSS THE
NATION. AT THE SFC...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. GENERALLY MODERATE-HIGH RH READINGS WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SWRN
STATES WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED WWD INTO CA. THE RESULT WILL
BE A CONTINUATION AND BUILDING OF HOT TEMPERATURES OVER THIS REGION.
VERY LOW RH READINGS WILL RESULT...BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS.
...CENTRAL NM...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM TSTMS TODAY OVER CENTRAL/ERN NM SHOULD
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NM TOMORROW. AGAIN A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED DRY TSTM POTENTIAL. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
ERN NM AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTS THAT MOST CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THIS AREA WILL BE WET.
..CROSBIE.. 06/20/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
VALID 221200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NWD DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THREAT FOR
DRY TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WNWWD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE FROM NM ON DAY
3 /THU/ INTO MUCH OF SRN/ERN AZ ON DAY 4 /FRI/ AND PORTIONS OF
SRN/CENTRAL AND ERN CA AND MUCH OF NV ON DAYS 5-6 /SAT-SUN/. SOME
QUESTIONS REMAINS IF THE UPPER LOW OVER TX TODAY CAN BE DRAWN
TOWARDS AND ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER
GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL DRY TSTM EVENT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED FROM AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN/CA DURING
THE DAY 4-6 PERIOD.
..CROSBIE.. 06/20/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#309 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:44 am
Code: Select all
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
30 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS... WITH VALUES AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE
15 TO 25 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THE GREATEST FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVER AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL
OVER THE WEEKEND.
EXERCISE EXTRA CAUTION TO PREVENT THE START OR SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.
REMEMBER THAT WILDFIRES CAN RESULT IN THE DESTRUCTION OF
GRASSLANDS... LIVESTOCK...FORESTS...AND PROPERTY.
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TexasStooge
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#310 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:11 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0417 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE NATION TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MODERATE
NWLY WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW RH READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE NATION...WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH
VERY LOW RH READINGS AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE OVER THE SWRN STATES INTO PORTIONS OF
CA/NV...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED-SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NM
AND CO AND SERN AZ. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS SHOULD AGAIN
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
...SWRN CO...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NM AND SERN AZ...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY UNDER THE
PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGING. CONVECTION LAST NIGHT OVER NRN SONORA MX
HAS AIDED IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVEMENT INTO FAR SERN AZ/SWRN
NM. ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND MEAN SUB-CLOUD RH READINGS FROM 15-30
PERCENT. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS LIKELY HAVE LITTLE RAINFALL
WITH THEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STARTED
FIRES. OVERALL COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUBSTANTIAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGING...SO A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
NWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS..BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/NEAR 80 F/...AND THUS MIN RH READINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS AS DWPTS RANGE FROM 45-50 F.
..CROSBIE.. 06/21/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0419 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN A SLOW TRANSITION DURING THE DAY TWO
PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS NWD ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES SEWD INTO THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR NWLY FLOW REGIME TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND AID IN MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TX CONTINUES TO MOVE
WWD...GREATER LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF FAR
WRN TX/SCENTRAL AND SERN NM. AS A RESULT...A GREATER COVERAGE OF
TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER THIS AREA THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MIX OF WET AND DRY TSTMS OVER
THIS AREA AND THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. VERY LOW RH READINGS /5-10 PERCENT/
WILL ACCOMPANY THE HOT TEMPERATURES...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SWRN NM/FAR SERN AZ...
ON THE WRN EDGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH LOW RH READINGS /5-10 PERCENT AT THE SFC/ AND A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COEXIST. ISOLATED TSTMS /MOST DRY/ ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING SWWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS IN THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AT BEST WITH LACK OF GREATER FORCING DUE TO AREAS PROXIMITY
TO THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
..CROSBIE.. 06/21/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
VALID 231200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF TRENDING SWD WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WILL BE VERY STRONG AND ZONAL
FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. BECAUSE OF THIS MORE
UNCERTAINTY NOW EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THE MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT SHOULD STREAM WWD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO SRN AZ AND MUCH
OF CA/NV THIS WEEKEND WILL AMT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED DRY
TSTMS AS LAPSE RATES MAY NOT BE FAVORABLE IN THE 600-400 MB LAYER.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF A POSSIBLE DRY TSTM EVENT FOR
THIS WEEKEND AND WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER GUIDANCE AND MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE MORE CERTAIN.
..CROSBIE.. 06/21/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#311 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:12 am
Code: Select all
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
...HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVER
AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEKEND.
EXERCISE EXTRA CAUTION TO PREVENT THE START OR SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.
REMEMBER THAT WILDFIRES CAN RESULT IN THE DESTRUCTION OF
GRASSLANDS... LIVESTOCK...FORESTS...AND PROPERTY.
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TexasStooge
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#312 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:36 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION TODAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME AMPLIFIED...AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN STATES AND UPPER TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD READINGS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF THE SWRN
STATES...GREAT BASIN AND CA. LOW RH READINGS WILL RESULT BUT LIGHT
WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. DEVELOPING NW
FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...WELCOME RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...RECYCLED MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY
TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AZ...WRN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. BUT
COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SERN AZ...WRN AND CENTRAL NM...
ON THE WRN EDGE OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HOT TEMPERATURES/DRY
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN TODAY. SOME OF THESE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE DRY...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH
FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0421 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD....LEADING TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN/SWRN STATES AND INTERIOR CA. ALONG WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES
...LOW RH READINGS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
AND UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS.
...SERN AZ/WRN NM...
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SITUATED EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER. NELY MID LEVEL
STEERING CURRENTS WILL TAKE ANY TSTMS SWWD TOWARDS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SERN AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF SCENTRAL AZ. AS ON DAY
ONE...A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DRY TSTMS WILL EXIST. HOWEVER WITH
NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ONLY ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
VALID 241200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH DAY 5.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THIS UPPER
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND /DAYS 3-5/ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE VERY DRY
AND HOT TEMPERATURES...THE PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO ONLY ISOLATED DRY TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN AZ ON DAY 3 AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE GREAT BASIN ON DAYS
3-5. BEYOND DAY 5...THERE MAY BE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL
DRY THUNDERSTORM EVENT AS UPPER TROUGHING IS SUGGESTED OVER THE WEST
COAST...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT AN AREA WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#313 Postby TexasStooge » Fri Jun 23, 2006 6:21 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS
IMPULSE NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
TONIGHT. WAVE NOTED IN EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WWD ACROSS SRN AZ INTO SRN CA TODAY...MAINTAINING
MODERATELY STRONG ELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSTMS IN THE
SOUTHWEST...MAINLY FROM STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLD DRY
LIGHTNING.
...PORTIONS OF AZ AND NM...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
40S/50S ACROSS SCNTRL AZ AND SRN/CNTRL NM. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN
15-20 DEGREES NEAR SAF/ABQ AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND CNTRL NM MTNS THROUGH THE
WHITE MTNS AND ALONG THE RIM...WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN NM. TSTMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CNTRL NM MTNS AND INTO SE AZ WILL CONTAIN
WETTING RAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR DRY TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW NM...WITH MORE ISOLD
STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS AND ALONG THE RIM. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST...SO STORMS WILL FORM ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP GIVEN VERY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT
DIFFERENCES.
...SIERRA...
A FEW CBS DEVELOPED ON THURSDAY OVER ALPINE/MONO COUNTIES DUE TO
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE SAME COULD OCCUR TODAY. LATEST NAMP
QPF SUGGESTS AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SIERRA...POSSIBLY INTO WRN NV AND GFS IMPLIES THIS AS WELL WITH ITS
MID LEVEL OMEGA FIELD. GIVEN HIGH BASED STORMS WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER...LITTLE WETTING RAIN WOULD ACCOMPANY STORMS SO
ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN.
..TAYLOR.. 06/23/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NLY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA. TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM
SE WY INTO NM DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG
WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW/OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DRY TSTMS WHICH
WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS ACROSS NW NM INTO NRN AZ...AND THEN PERHAPS
ACROSS THE SIERRA.
...SCNTRL CO THROUGH NW NM INTO NRN/CNTRL AZ...
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES
WILL BE ACROSS ERN CO THROUGH NERN NM AND ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS. FOR
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF THE DIVIDE IN NM AND ALONG THE RIM IN
AZ...THEY WILL BE HIGH BASED AND CONTAIN LITTLE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN NM AND ERN CO WILL CONTAIN WETTING RAINS AS INCREASED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES WEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS COVERAGE OF DRY
TSTMS WILL BE ISOLD.
...SIERRA...
ISOLD HIGH BASED DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 20S/30S...LITTLE
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED.
..TAYLOR.. 06/23/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
VALID 251200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EACH DAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PAC NW. WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST. MID AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. THIS
GENERAL AREA IS WHERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS EARLY
IN THE WEEK. EXTENDED MODELS HINT THAT RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY MID-LATE
WEEK...WITH TSTM CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
SIERRA.
..TAYLOR.. 06/23/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#314 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 24, 2006 8:38 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE SWRN DESERTS NNW INTO THE CA CNTRL VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SWD IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES.
MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE S OF THIS HIGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF WY SWD INTO SERN AZ. ISOLATED DRY TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS E-CNTRL AZ INTO W-CNTRL NM.
...MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS OF AZ INTO FAR W-CNTRL NM...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DRY TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY TODAY AS DEEP
ELY FLOW CONTINUES TO THE SE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR
SRN NV. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CURRENT SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S/ ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY
LIFTED TO PRODUCE HIGH-BASED TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
E-CNTRL AZ/W-CNTRL NM. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
BE WEAK /GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS/...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS.
..GRAMS.. 06/24/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0425 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL OCCUR FROM DAY 1. THE
CENTER OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE WEST...WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NWD TOWARDS LAKE TAHOE. A MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES THROUGH SRN AZ...TO THE S OF
A SURFACE HIGH IN THE NRN PLAINS. WHERE THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INTERSECTS WITH VERY WARM AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR
CORNERS REGION...ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY
WEST ACROSS E-CNTRL AZ.
...MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS OF AZ...
DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM COMBINE TO
PRODUCE HIGH-BASED TSTMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DRY TSTMS DEVELOPING. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE WEAK. HOWEVER...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS.
..GRAMS.. 06/24/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
VALID 261200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ANCHORED IN THIS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE SWRN
DESERTS NWD INTO THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. HOWEVER...MODEL
DISAGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...SOME OF WHICH MAY AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN REGION AS EARLY AS
WED/THU. SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE
PRESENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
A DRY TSTM EVENT AS WELL.
..GRAMS.. 06/24/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#315 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Jun 25, 2006 10:40 am
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DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE WRN CONUS. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN...WITH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NWWD ACROSS THE SIERRAS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ELY UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES THROUGH SRN AZ. ISOLATED DRY TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE PLUMES...GENERALLY
ALONG AND JUST W OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM SRN WY SWD INTO NRN
AZ/NWRN NM...ARCING NWWD ACROSS THE SIERRAS.
...MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS OF AZ INTO NWRN NM...
A SIMILAR SETUP TO SATURDAY IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DRY TSTMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL AZ INTO NWRN
NM ALONG AND W OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE GENERALLY HIGHER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SATURDAY
EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND IN AREAS FURTHER NORTH. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST SELY FLOW ACROSS SERN AZ/SRN
NM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS.
..GRAMS.. 06/25/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN CONUS...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ELY COMPONENT TO THE
LOW AND/OR MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND
SRN AZ...EXPANDING WWD IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ISOLATED DRY
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MOIST PLUMES AND
HOT/DRY AIR IN THE GREAT BASIN.
A TRANSITION TO MORE WETTER TSTMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM/WHITE MTNS AREA OF CNTRL AZ INTO NWRN NM. THE GREATEST DRY TSTM
POTENTIAL SHOULD SHIFT NWD...ALONG THE NRN PLATEAU OF AZ INTO THE
VALLEYS OF ERN UT/WRN CO. FURTHER W...MID-LEVEL IMPULSES/MOISTURE
CIRCULATING NWWD AROUND THE HIGH MAY LEAD TO A FEW DRY TSTMS ALONG
THE SIERRAS.
...NRN PLATEAU OF AZ INTO THE VALLEYS OF ERN UT/WRN CO...
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THIS REGION. AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR
MASS IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL YIELD HIGH-BASES ON ANY TSTMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...
OWING TO THE STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED IN THE GREAT BASIN.
..GRAMS.. 06/25/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
VALID 271200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF POSSIBLE SHORTWAVES IMPINGING ON
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PAC NW. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FLOW WILL AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA IN THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE LARGE RIDGE. DRY TSTM POTENTIAL ON
DAY 3 APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN THIS REGION ATTM.
..GRAMS.. 06/25/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#316 Postby TexasStooge » Mon Jun 26, 2006 6:54 am
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DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOUR CORNERS INTO SWRN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE WRN
CONUS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THERMAL LOW IN CA AND PRESSURE TROUGH
RUNNING NWD INTO THE PAC NW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND/OR
MID-LEVEL FLOW...TRANSPORTING INCREASED MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DRY TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ARCING AROUND THE LARGE HIGH FROM PORTIONS OF
SWRN WY SWD TO NRN AZ AND NWWD ACROSS THE SIERRAS AND MUCH OF NV.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FOUR CORNERS INTO SWRN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS / GUSTY WINDS
SCATTERED DRY TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN
ADVANCING PLUME OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUD-FREE THROUGH MIDDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW NEAR-FULL
INSOLATION AND STRENGTHEN INSTABILITY. COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS SHOULD
NOT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW OF STORMS. HOWEVER...VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HIGH-BASED TSTMS INITIALLY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CURRENTLY AROUND A HALF INCH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS IN
AND CLOSE TO TSTMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRES.
...NRN PLATEAU OF AZ/MOST OF ERN UT INTO NWRN CO...
TO THE W AND N OF THE CRITICAL AREA...A MORE MARGINAL THREAT FOR DRY
TSTMS EXISTS...WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. HOWEVER...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RH THAN IN AREAS FURTHER E.
...MOST OF NV...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DRY TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS NRN NV...AIDED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE IN ORE. HOT TEMPERATURES
AND LOW SUB-CLOUD RH WILL YIELD VERY-HIGH BASED TSTMS.
..GRAMS.. 06/26/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE WRN
CONUS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IMPULSES CIRCULATING SLOWLY AROUND AND
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES W/NWWD ACROSS AZ/NV
AND THE SIERRAS. THE DRY TSTM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IN THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
...ERN UT/WRN CO/NRN PLATEAU OF AZ...
A TRANSITION TO WETTER TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR AS SUB-CLOUD RH WILL
LIKELY BE GREATER VERSUS MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE IN PART DUE TO
EXPECTED SHOWER/TSTM EFFECTS FROM MONDAY AND LIGHT ELY FLOW...BOTH
HELPING TO INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE SUB-CLOUD COLUMN. IN
ADDITION...GREATER COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS LIKELY AS WELL...WITH
INCREASED ASCENT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD FROM
ORE. DRY TSTMS MAY STILL OCCUR INITIALLY...HOWEVER THE THREAT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ISSUE A CRITICAL AREA ATTM.
...MOST OF NV/WRN UT...
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN...EXPANDING EWD INTO WRN
UT...AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE. VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW SUB-CLOUD RH WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED
TSTMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY TSTMS.
..GRAMS.. 06/26/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006
VALID 281200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY
SHIFTING EWD THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS.
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TIMING OF POSSIBLE SHORTWAVES IMPINGING ON THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PAC
NW. SOME MODELS NOW FORECAST MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WRN GREAT BASIN IN THE DAY 3-4 TIME FRAME.
DRY TSTM POTENTIAL ON DAY 3 APPEARS TO BE GREATEST IN THIS REGION AS
WELL...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE IF A SHORTWAVE INDEED
MATERIALIZES.
..GRAMS.. 06/26/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#317 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Jun 27, 2006 6:38 am
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DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UT...WRN CO AND NRN AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WRN CO...NM AND AZ. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON THE LARGE SCALE...BUT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN INTO WRN
CO AND NRN AZ. MORE ISOLATED DRY THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WRN
GREAT BASIN AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN CA AND OREGON.
ELSEWHERE...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY
DRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AR. LOW RH WITH LIGHT NLY
WINDS WILL RESULT FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF UT...WRN CO AND NRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING WITH GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...SHIFTING NWD
BENEATH UPPER HIGH. WEAK WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
STORMS MAY BE ENHANCED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE RIDGE ACROSS ERN UT INTO CO. WHILE STORMS WILL BE WET AND MORE
NUMEROUS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA...LOWER RH LEVELS BENEATH
CLOUD BASE WILL EXIST FARTHER NW INTO UT WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY.
AWAY FROM STORMS...MIN RH LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AROUND STORMS...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE THREAT OF
DRY LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.
...MUCH OF NV...NRN CA...SRN OREGON AND SWRN ID...
DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. FAVORED
AREAS WILL INCLUDE THE SRN SIERRA AS WELL AS FAR NRN CA IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. LOW LEVEL RH WILL BE VERY LOW AND WITH A MDT HAINES
INDEX...LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FIRES.
LARGE SCALE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT LOCALLY GUSTY NEAR STORM
OUTFLOW.
...ERN TX INTO MS...
IT WILL BE WARM AND VERY DRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM
THE NW. NLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL HELP DECREASE RH LEVELS INTO
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. GIVEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS...AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED LITTLE RAIN WILL SEE ENHANCED THREAT OF FIRES...ALTHOUGH
WEAK WINDS WILL MITIGATE OVERALL THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 06/27/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN OREGON...NWRN AND CENTRAL
NV...SWRN UT...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ON WED WHILE ERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL LOWER
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND PACIFIC NW...WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SHIFTING WINDS
AND WILL ALSO CONCENTRATE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS. AWAY FROM THE FRONT...STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED BUT DRY
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ELSEWHERE...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WHERE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS WITH WEAK LOW OVER SERN CO.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN OREGON...NWRN AND CENTRAL
NV...SWRN UT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING...WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT(NWRN
AREAS)
A POCKET OF HOT AND DRY AIR WITH MDT TO HIGH HAINES WILL EXIST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NV AS WELL AS MUCH OF UT WED AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS NWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ATOP THIS
DRY AIR. WITH SUCH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ANY RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STORMS
OVER CENTRAL NV INTO SWRN UT. FARTHER NW...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM SERN OREGON INTO NWRN NV. MORE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS FRONT...WITH POSSIBLY A STRONG WIND SHIFT
DUE TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY SEWD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF NV AND UT...AS WELL AS INTO NWRN AZ. HUMIDITY
LEVELS...IN GENERAL...ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 15-20 PERCENT...EXCEPT
HIGHER NEAR STORMS.
...ERN CO...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE STATE OF CO. MOST WILL
BE WET...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND WRN CO. HOWEVER...DRY STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY OVER ERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE IT WILL GET HOT
WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE DRY
AND WITH GUSTY WINDS...RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL HELP MITIGATE
OVERALL FIRE THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 06/27/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006
VALID 291200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGEST PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH MEAN RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE NE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WRN STATES
WARM AND SOME AREAS MOIST WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE. MODELS DO SHOW A
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED AREA OF DRY AND/OR WET
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN INTO OREGON AND ID.
SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME HOWEVER.
ELSEWHERE...EXISTENCE OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS THERE DRY...WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THEREBY INCREASING FIRE POTENTIAL.
..JEWELL.. 06/27/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#318 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Jun 28, 2006 6:30 am
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DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...SWRN UT...
...SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. DRY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THUS PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...WITH WETTER STORMS
ELSEWHERE. TO THE E...NWLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS BUT LOW
RH. LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL HELP INDUCE
STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS FROM W TX INTO WRN KS...BUT SPEEDS WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NV...SWRN UT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE A THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING CAUSED FIRE STARTS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DRY STORMS
APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL/ERN NV INTO WRN UT WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE HIGHER. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
NWD ACROSS NV JUST WEST OF UPPER HIGH CENTER...WHILE STORMS OVER UT
SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THESE ARE AVERAGE EXPECTED STORMS
MOTIONS...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD MOVE IN ANY DIRECTION DUE TO VERY
WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED DRY THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ERN CO LATE TODAY. BY
LATE AFTERNOON...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND WITH STRONG
HEATING...A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SERN CO. GIVEN VERY WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS...THEY WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS. A GREATER
NUMBER OF STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE MTNS OF CENTRAL CO...BUT MOST
OF THESE SHOULD BE WET.
SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURE TO THE
WEST. SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH WILL OCCUR AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S. RH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVER ERN
CO AND WRN KS AND TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN OK. AREAS SUCH AS SRN OK AS WELL AS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES
HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH KBDI VALUES. THUS...WHILE THREAT IS NOT
CRITICAL...STRONG DRYING TODAY MAY POSE A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT BY
LATE AFTERNOON WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY.
..JEWELL.. 06/28/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
NRN EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE WRN GREAT BASIN INTO ID AND MT. THIS WILL INCREASE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SHUNT UPPER HIGH CENTER
FARTHER S INTO AZ AND NM WITH THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DRY...ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES AND WILL CAUSE RH VALUES TO BE VERY LOW
BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
...UT/WRN CO...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH
THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE INTO OREGON ID AND
MT...AND ALSO FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ INTO WRN AND NRN
NM...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE WET. THE BEST CHANCE AT
DRY STORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL UT AND WRN CO WHERE SUB CLOUD RH
LAYER WILL BE DRIER. A DRY THUNDER CRITICAL MAY BE ISSUED NEXT DAY 1
ONCE CONFIDENCE IN PRIME DRY THUNDER LOCATION BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.
...PLAINS STATES...
IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND DRY ON THU AS SLY WINDS INCREASE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM SRN NEB INTO OK WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20
MPH. RH LEVELS WILL DECREASE TO 20-25 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING FROM
WRN ND SWD TO TX. AREAS SUCH AS N TX AS WELL AS ND AND NWRN MN HAVE
HAD LITTLE RAINFALL RECENTLY...THUS KBDI VALUES ARE INCREASING.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER FROM ERN TX INTO AR/LA/MS/AL/NRN FL...BUT RH
WILL BE VERY LOW FROM 25-35 PERCENT. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE. WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND STRONG HEATING WILL PRODUCE DEEP MIXING
LAYERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MANY DAYS OF LOW DEWPOINTS...FIRE
THREAT LIKELY INCREASING AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY.
..JEWELL.. 06/28/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006
VALID 301200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER
MUCH OF THE WEST...AND THE DRY THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH
TIME AS MOISTURE LINGERS. GIVEN PERSISTENT NW FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AS WELL AS INTO THE SE WITH LOW
RH DAILY BUT LIGHT WINDS.
..JEWELL.. 06/28/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#319 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:53 am
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DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN SPOTS BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. SOME WILL BE DRY IN
CO AND UT...WHILE WETTING RAINS MOVE ACROSS OREGON AND IDAHO.
NRN EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN/FLATTEN AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM ID INTO MT. THIS WAVE WILL HELP A SURFACE FRONT MOVE SEWD
WITH TIME...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ND INTO WRN SD. WINDS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS
PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RH WILL BE LOW IN THE
PLAINS...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE GULF
COAST AREA WHERE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THOUGH GULF COAST STATES.
...CENTRAL UT INTO WRN CO...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG
THE WASATCH MTNS. MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER WRN CO. SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DRY...BUT SOME WILL CONTAIN RAIN AS WELL.
SURFACE RH LEVELS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LOW...DUE IN PART TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF MOISTURE AND STORMS. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
OVER ERN UT INTO WRN CO...BUT THIS IS WHERE STORMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WASATCH MTNS...BUT RH LEVELS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER HERE WITH MORE
RAIN. THUS...DRY THUNDER SITUATION WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY...BUT A
FEW FIRE STARTS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY WHERE NO RAIN HAS FALLEN AS OF
LATE.
LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS NRN INTO
CNTRL UT. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY...BUT SPEEDS WILL NOT
BE VERY STRONG...AVERAGING NEAR 10 MPH. ALSO...RH LEVELS WILL BE
RECOVERED BY THIS TIME.
...ERN MT INTO ND...
IT WILL BE VERY WARM TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 90S AND
RH LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT OVER MT TO 20-25 PERCENT
CENTRAL ND AND SD. WINDS WILL BEGIN AS SLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY TO WLY S AT 10-15 MPH.
...NEB/WRN KS/OK AND TX PANHANDLES...
IT WILL BE WINDY AND DRY TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RH OF
15-20 PERCENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE PRECIPITATION AS OF LATE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.
...SRN OK/NRN TX EWD INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES...
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VERY DRY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. RH LEVELS WILL DROP
INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FROM TX INTO GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH...WHICH WILL MITIGATE FIRE THREAT.
STILL...FUELS ARE BECOMING VERY DRY WITH INCREASING THREAT OF FIRE
STARTS.
..JEWELL.. 06/29/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NW CA COAST INTO
OREGON...AND WILL HELP TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL CONTAIN WETTING RAIN. FARTHER E...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
RIDING EWD ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MT AND INTO
ND...BRINGING RAIN THERE AS WELL. FARTHER S BENEATH THE
RIDGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL CO...THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ AND THE WASATCH OF UT. THESE
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY STORMS.
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES WILL AGAIN HELP
PRODUCE WARM AND DRY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE KEEPING THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH HOT...DRY AND CALM.
...ERN NV / SRN UT / WRN CO / NRN AZ...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY...FOCUSED OVER THE WASATCH IN
UT...THE HIGH TERRAIN IN E CENTRAL NV...THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ...AND
THE MTNS OF WRN CO. GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA...OVERALL DRY THREAT IS DECREASING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES. HAINES INDEX WILL APPROACH HIGH
OVER NRN AZ INTO SRN NV AND SRN CA THOUGH...SUGGESTING ANY LIGHTNING
STARTED IGNITIONS MAY INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
...NRN TX/SRN OK...
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY TO 10-15 MPH AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE MAINTAINED. KBDI VALUES ARE HIGH IN THESE AREAS WITH LITTLE RAIN
IN THE PAST MONTH. THUS...COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...RH OF
20-30 PERCENT AND INCREASED WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
...LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA...
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VERY WARM AND DRY
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE ACTIVITY LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...THEREBY MITIGATING THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE
SPREAD...ALTHOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL FOSTER NEW STARTS.
..JEWELL.. 06/29/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
VALID 011200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH CENTER/RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE VERY SLOWLY EWD WITH
TIME...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF HUDSON BAY INTO THE
NERN STATES. IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
SWRN DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS ON SUNDAY 7/2 AND
MONDAY 7/3. SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SERN STATES...WITH VERY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY 7/2. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. THIS AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY/MOISTEN STARTING
MONDAY 7/3.
..JEWELL.. 06/29/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
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Contact:
#320 Postby TexasStooge » Fri Jun 30, 2006 6:58 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NW CA COAST AND WILL
CAUSE LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON. TO THE
E...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ATOP NRN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS MT AND INTO ND...BRINGING STORMS THERE AS WELL. FARTHER S
BENEATH THE RIDGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR
OVER MUCH OF WRN CO...UT...AZ AND NM. THESE STORMS WILL BE A MIXTURE
OF WET AND DRY STORMS.
IT WILL BE VERY HOT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LOW RH AND
MODERATE WINDS DUE TO THERMAL LOW TO THE WEST. PRESENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF COAST STATES
WILL KEEP RH VERY LOW WITH HOT TEMPERATURES.
...LA/MS/AL/SW GA/FL PANHANDLE...
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE. RH
WILL DIP INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 90S. WINDS WILL ONLY AVERAGE 5-10 MPH...WHICH WILL MITIGATE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE SPREAD.
...ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN TX...
THESE AREAS OF TX HAVE RECEIVED RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
RECENTLY...THUS FINE FUELS ARE BECOMING VERY DRY. TODAY...IT WILL
AGAIN BE HOT AND DRY WITH RH LEVELS DIPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE TO 20-30 PERCENT OVER N TX INCLUDING THE METROPLEX.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...AND NEAR 10 MPH OVER N TX.
...NERN NV...CENTRAL UT...WRN CO...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSED IN THREE
DISTINCT AREAS. ALTHOUGH MANY STORMS WILL CONTAIN RAIN...SOME WILL
BE DRY. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
SRN UT...WRN CO...AND E CENTRAL NV WHERE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE
DRIEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR STORMS.
..JEWELL.. 06/30/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FURTHER ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AS BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SINKS SWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE...THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM NRN KS INTO CENTRAL NM...WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT E OF IT. AS A RESULT...WARM WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF KS...OK AND NW TX. FARTHER W...IT WILL REMAIN
VERY HOT OVER THE DESERT SW...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NRN NV/UT/CO/AZ/NM. TO THE E...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SERN STATES WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
...MS/AL/WRN GA/FL PANHANDLE...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN ACROSS THIS AREA...REFLECTED
BY KBDI VALUES OF 600-700. IT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH PERHAPS
RH A FEW PERCENT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAY. NONETHELESS...VALUES
WILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM 25-35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH...WHICH
WILL MITIGATE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE SPREAD.
...ERN TX PANHANDLE AND OK PANHANDLE...SRN OK...NRN TX...
IT WILL BE VERY WARM WINDY AND DRY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO KS...WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL
BE LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RH LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
DAY...DUE TO SLIGHT MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SE. STILL...MIN RH
VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON. FARTHER E INTO SRN OK AND
NRN TX...RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER FROM 30-35 PERCENT...BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 15 MPH WHICH WILL ENHANCE FIRE THREAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
...CENTRAL AND ERN NV...SRN UT...WRN CO...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE WASATCH AND ALSO
OVER NRN NV SAT AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THREAT OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY...WITH FASTER
STORM MOTIONS OVER NRN NV DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND DRIER
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS. STILL...SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTAIN
RAIN...AND RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS DAMPENED OVERALL THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 06/30/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006
VALID 021200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
AND OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SRN STATES DRY.
INTO THE WESTERN U.S...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DAILY
OVER THE ROCKIES AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. OTHER THAN THE
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING IGNITED FIRES...IT WILL REMAIN WARM UNDER UPPER
RIDGE WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. MODELS SHOW A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW ON 7/6...WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN.
..JEWELL.. 06/30/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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