Tropical Depression Alberto Advisories

[Thunder44]

They have shifted the track further west up the east coast. It's almost within the 40/70 benchmark by Thursday AM. It's extratropical by then.

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 131451
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

A FEW HOURS AGO...A PARTIAL EYEWALL DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS EVENT MARKED ALBERTO'S
LAST OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS FLEW ACROSS THIS FEATURE A COUPLE OF TIMES AND INDICATED
THAT THE WINDS WERE WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. BASED ON SYNOPTIC
AND RECON DATA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT. THE
CENTER IS NOW PRACTICALLY ONSHORE SO WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWS THE INLAND
DECAY MODEL. BEYOND THAT TIME...WE EXPECT ALBERTO TO BE TRANSFORMED
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT IN
2-5 DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.

RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS WOBBLING BETWEEN
A NNE AND NE HEADING. SMOOTHING BETWEEN THESE FIXES YIELDS AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 035/8. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA IS PREDICTED TO DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND KICK ALBERTO....OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL VERSION...
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 29.8N 83.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 31.3N 82.9W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/1200Z 33.4N 80.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 15/0000Z 36.5N 75.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/1200Z 39.5N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/1200Z 47.0N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/1200Z 53.0N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/1200Z 55.0N 18.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[HurricaneHunter914]

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF ALBERTO.


The NHC always finds a way to be funny.

[Jim Cantore]

Where is it coming in about, I cant quite tell

[Brent]

Where is it coming in about, I cant quite tell

Looks like the Keaton Beach area north of Cedar Key.

[Jim Cantore]

That what I was thinking

[kenl01]

Alberto was about as horrific as "Simon" in a bathtub.

[Scorpion]

Alberto was about as horrific as "Simon" in a bathtub.

It's June. Just wait until August.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Alberto was about as horrific as "Simon" in a bathtub.

Frankly, I hope that's as horrific as they get!

A2K

[RattleMan]

Uh, an update just appeared:

000
WTNT61 KNHC 131633
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...WARNING...
...HEADER INFORMATION WAS OBTAINED FROM THE
...LAST OFFICIAL FORECAST FILE. CHECK THE
...HEADER BLOCK CAREFULLY, ESPECIALLY THE
...SYSTEM STATUS AND THE TIME-DATE LINE


******** TCU EXAMPLE ********

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
TROPICAL STORM ALICIA HAS REACHED HURRICANE
STRENGTH...

SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM CDT...RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ALICIA HAD INCREASED
TO HURRICANE FORCE...DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A
SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 7 PM CDT.

******** END EXAMPLE ********


FORECASTER [YOUR LAST NAME]



$$

[WindRunner]

Actually, the update links to this:



WTNT61 KNHC 131646
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1245 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...ALBERTO MAKES LANDFALL...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR ADAMS BEACH...ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...AROUND 1230 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

What? Alicia? Sure that is a test.

[RattleMan]

Actually, the update links to this:



WTNT61 KNHC 131646
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1245 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...ALBERTO MAKES LANDFALL...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR ADAMS BEACH...ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...AROUND 1230 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

Yeah, they must have fixed the link. It said
"Update
11 AM EDT"

But now says 1245 PM EDT, and it links to the correct article. Oh well.

[WindRunner]

That was actually what showed up when I clicked the "Update 11AM EDT" link, oddly enough. Oh well - the important thing is that we know it has made landfall.

[cycloneye]

367
WTNT31 KNHC 131758
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...ALBERTO INLAND OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND WEAKENING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BAYPORT TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...EAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING OVER GEORGIA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH ...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS. CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND...AND ALBERTO WILL
PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER WATER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER ALL OF GEORGIA EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE....AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N...83.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

284
WTNT31 KNHC 132032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...ALBERTO MOVES INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA IS DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

GALE WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR VERY NEAR
VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ALBERTO WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE WARNED AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF GEORGIA...MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THOSE STATES...AND INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...30.7 N...83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$


037
WTNT21 KNHC 132032
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
2100Z TUE JUN 13 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA IS DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 83.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 100SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 83.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.4N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.8N 78.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.7N 72.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 41.0N 66.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 75SE 75SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 48.5N 51.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 350SE 200SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 53.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 54.5N 15.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 83.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH


036
WTNT41 KNHC 132032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

ALTHOUGH OVER LAND...ALBERTO POSSESSES A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD
PATTERN. DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED HOWEVER. TROPICAL
STORM STATUS IS BEING RETAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY BECAUSE 34-KT
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH
A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A DAY OR SO AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
HOUR 24. DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT BAROCLINIC INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST.

SURFACE SYNOPTIC AND WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION IS 035/9. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD
KICK ALBERTO AND/OR THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IN A DAY OR
SO. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THERE IS A THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 30.7N 83.2W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 14/0600Z 32.4N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/1800Z 34.8N 78.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 15/0600Z 37.7N 72.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/1800Z 41.0N 66.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/1800Z 48.5N 51.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/1800Z 53.0N 34.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/1800Z 54.5N 15.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm still suprised its still a TS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system has become more centered around its self after landfall. For reasons yet to be known.

[JonathanBelles]

cam somebody post the 3 and 5 day cones please?

[HurricaneHunter914]

I don't think they've been updated yet. On my computer they still show the 11 AM tracks.