TWD and TWO - Please post the latest here.

[bvigal]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131203 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

AMENDED FOR 12Z POSITION OF T.S. ALBERTO

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO AT 13/1200 UTC IS NEAR
29.5N 84.2W OR 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA... AND ABOUT 55 NM/105 KM WEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALREADY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALBERTO IS
MOVING NORTHEAST 8 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
LANDFALL NEAR MIDDAY TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ALBERTO WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS DECREASING...ALTHOUGH SOME
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RE-STRENGTHENING. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND STILL POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA ARE FOUND NOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
STORM CENTER FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. THIS IS THE
ONLY CLOUDY AREA WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE STORM CENTER TO THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. EVERYTHING WEST OF THAT LINE IS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND NO OTHER PRECIPITATION. ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND WEST OF
THE LINE FROM ALBERTO TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE LINE 28N83W-21N90W AT
THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W.
THIS WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY 1200 UTC
TODAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N13W 6N22W 6N30W 5N36W 5N44W 9N57W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W
AND 22W...PROBABLY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...AND FROM 3N TO
8N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND
14W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF ALBERTO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 28N77W BEYOND 32N74W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
65W...AND PRETTY MUCH ALL THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE ITCZ...IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 83W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM EAST TO
WEST WITH THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE...ONCE IT FINALLY ENTERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PROBABLY WITH THE 13/1200 UTC MAP.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF 60W. NOT ANY ONE OF THESE
FEATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...OR ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE FOR THAT MATTER.
THE FIRST TROUGH IS ALONG 31N57W TO 26N61W TO 21N67W. THE NEXT
TROUGH RUNS FROM 33N38W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
NEAR 30N40W TO 22N43W. THE LAST TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO 26N15W NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MOROCCO. THE RIDGE WHICH IS
IN BETWEEN THE 30N40W LOW CENTER AND THE MADEIRAS-TO-CANARY
ISLANDS TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
23N28W TO 32N31W. THE RIDGE WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE 31N57W
21N67W TROUGH AND THE 30N40W LOW CENTER IS A BROAD RIDGE AND
NOT ALL THAT WELL-DEFINED. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN AZORES
1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 39N33W THROUGH 32N46W TO
29N61W TO 29N72W THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.

$$
MT




000
ABNT20 KNHC 130910
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF CEDAR KEY
FLORIDA.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[cycloneye]

444
ABNT20 KNHC 131524
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO...LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COAST
ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TALAHASSEE FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
IS RATHER BROAD AND DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[HurricaneHunter914]

If it does develop will it be another potential Florida storm?

[NBCintern]

If it does develop will it be another potential Florida storm?

what do you base that on?

[bvigal]

If it does develop will it be another potential Florida storm?

what do you base that on?

Please, post your question and answers in the "Atlantic Tropical Waves, Comments..." thread. This is for posting of TWD and TWO.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If it does develop will it be another potential Florida storm?

what do you base that on?

Climatology, if you don't know, most storms that form in the Caribbean head towards Florida throught the GOM although some go to Texas.

[NBCintern]

If it does develop will it be another potential Florida storm?

what do you base that on?

Climatology, if you don't know, most storms that form in the Caribbean head towards Florida throught the GOM although some go to Texas.

your reasoning is too simplistic. Not all storm go to Florida or Texas. There are more states in between and on the east coast. Also, some go to Mexico.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If it does develop will it be another potential Florida storm?

what do you base that on?

Climatology, if you don't know, most storms that form in the Caribbean head towards Florida throught the GOM although some go to Texas.

your reasoning is too simplistic. Not all storm go to Florida or Texas. There are more states in between and on the east coast. Also, some go to Mexico.

All I was asking was if it could hit Florida and all I needed was a "yes" or a "no" or a "maybe". Sometimes NBCIntern its better to just answer the question and then get on with your life.

[NBCintern]

If it does develop will it be another potential Florida storm?

what do you base that on?

Climatology, if you don't know, most storms that form in the Caribbean head towards Florida throught the GOM although some go to Texas.

your reasoning is too simplistic. Not all storm go to Florida or Texas. There are more states in between and on the east coast. Also, some go to Mexico.

All I was asking was if it could hit Florida and all I needed was a "yes" or a "no" or a "maybe". Sometimes NBCIntern its better to just answer the question and then get on with your life.

Dude you never said could hit Florida. you stated and I quote "If it does develop will it be another potential Florida storm?[/quote]." I don't see the could in your statement. This implies if development were to occur it will it Florida.

[cycloneye]

Ok both of you,the creator of this thread wants the discussions to be at the Atlantic Tropical Waves thread or I say by PM'S between both of you but let's leaave this thread for the TWD'S and the TWO'S.

[decgirl66]

Technically, "will it be?" indicates a question of whether or not it will hit. He did not imply (imo) it will hit Florida. Just my 2cents worth!

[NBCintern]

Technically, "will it be?" indicates a question of whether or not it will hit. He did not imply (imo) it will hit Florida. Just my 2cents worth!

Ah, now I feel like a dog licking his arse. I read it and read it, but it never registered "will it be".

[bvigal]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
ALBERTO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR ADAMS BEACH FLORIDA AROUND 12:30
PM EDT AND CONTINUES MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 KT AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS
AND WARNINGS. AFTER THE INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH YESTERDAY MORNING ALBERTO BECAME RATHER RAGGED LAST
NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...ALBERTO
APPEARED TO BE TRYING TO DEVELOP A PARTIAL EYEWALL ON THE W SIDE
OF THE CIRCULATION. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS INLAND WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AND EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY WITHIN 24
HOURS. RAINFALL WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WITH
ALBERTO. SOME OF THE MOST IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN A WIDE
FEEDER BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL DETACHED FROM THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL OF GEORGIA EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE....AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 20W/21W
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED
WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 7N. THIS FEATURE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN
14W-27W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
INITIALIZATION OF THIS WAVE AND TRACK IT TO THE WNW NEAR 15 KT
AS A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE OR POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD NEAR 37W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST NEAR 15 KT BASED UPON A 09 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING A
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD CURVATURE AND AN INVERTED V-PATTERN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS LIE FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 32W-44W.

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED RATHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED
AHEAD ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A MODERATE TO STRONG
SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THIS WAVE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N27W 9N35W 4N45W 9N60W.
BESIDES FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...THERE IS
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CONTINUES TO GRAB ALL THE HEADLINES. A
WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS STREAMING FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON THE SE SIDE OF ALBERTO'S CIRCULATION. FOR MORE
INFORMATION REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. AN UPPER HIGH
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW IS GENERATING PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL
GULF. AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWARD INTO THE N
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. A
1015 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS ALBERTO'S
MOVES NE OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL GULF TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO NEAR 32N68W. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE W
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
RATHER STRONG TROPICAL WAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS ENTERED
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING TOWARDS
THE GREATER ANTILLES. HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N W OF 71W BUT
THIS AREA WILL BE MOISTENING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
TRACK WESTWARD. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERALLY NEAR 15-25 KT. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE TROPICAL
WAVE. MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN
COVERS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. NOT ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...OR ANY
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE FOR THAT MATTER. THE WESTERN-MOST
RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST S OF CUBA
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NEWARD TO 32N68W. A NARROW TROUGH LIES
JUST TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
32N57W 19N68W. THERE IS A SLIGHT HINT OF BROAD RIDGING TO THE E
OF THIS TROUGH WITH A WEAK UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 16N48W. THE
NEXT TROUGH RUNS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR
31N38W SWWARD TO 22N43W. BROAD RIDGING LIES TO THE E OF 38W S OF
26N. AN UPPER TROUGH CLIPS THE NE PART OF THE AREA N OF 26N E OF
30W. AT THE SURFACE...A DOMINATING 1032 MB AZORES HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 38N32W COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN PRODUCING
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND ITCZ CONVECTION. THIS LARGE DOMINATING HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

$$
CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[bvigal]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 132356 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION ...AMENDED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCATION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR
31.3N 82.8W OR ABOUT 22 NM SW OF ALMA GEORGIA AT 14/0000 UTC
MOVING NE AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO IS OVER LAND IT STILL
POSSESSES A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...IT LACKS
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. RAINBANDS WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 28N E OF 87W TO OVER THE SE
US. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE E US
COAST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. STRONG WAVE
IS WELL DEFINED IN THE MID LEVEL CURVATURE ROTATION WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT.
STRONG...WELL DEFINED WAVE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CURVATURE
ROTATION. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE LACKS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
BUT DOES HAVE ABUNDANT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
WELL-DEFINED IN THE MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-68W INCLUDING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W AND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 60W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 15 KT. WAVE
IS NOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OR SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
CARIBBEAN.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 7N30W 9N37W 6N41W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 14W-20W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 26W-30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 10W-40W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
40W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FRO TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE W GULF TO
A BASE NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SURFACE...A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN EQUALLY WEAKENING 1010 MB
LOW OVER SE ALABAMA/SW GEORGIA ALONG 30N86W 28N89W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. WITH THE DRY UPPER AIR AND THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO T.S. ALBERTO...THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ARE OVER E
TEXAS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 93W. AN UPPER HIGH OVER W
CUBA NEAR 22N82W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N89W AND NE INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE
TO THE NW OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FEEDING A RATHER LARGE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF A LINE FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W
TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED INTO T.S. ALBERTO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N89W AND NE INTO THE
W ATLC GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NE UPPER FLOW. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER E CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA
MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...SEE ABOVE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES FOR THE ISLANDS AS WELL AS
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W EXTENDS A RIDGE NE INTO
THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N72W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE NW OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING A RATHER LARGE BAND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM
CUBA NEAR 23N80W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO BEYOND
32N69W. THIS MOISTURE AND ACTIVITY IS FEEDING INTO T.S. ALBERTO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF
UPPER TROUGHS/RIDGES. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 32N56W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N58W TO A BASE
NEAR PUERTO RICO. A SECOND LARGER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED TO THE E
NEAR 30N37W COVERING THE AREA N OF 22N FROM 31W-46W. A THIRD
UPPER LOW IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL DIPPING S TO OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 21W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 75W.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH THE UPPER HIGH JUST
INLAND OVER AFRICA EXTENDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO
SOUTH AMERICA/WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE IS SOMEWHAT DISTORTED
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TWO STRONG TROPICAL WAVES IN
THE E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE

[bvigal]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140306
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA ABOUT
55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STATESBORO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[SouthFloridawx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO...
WHICH HAS BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... IS LOCATED
OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR ELIZABETH CITY. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH... AND IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
LATER THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER LARGER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO AT 14/1500 UTC IS IN
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35.0N 79.5W. ALBERTO IS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON ALBERTO. FOR DETAILS AND WARNINGS PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A RATHER
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 20
KT. SIMILARITY TO THE WAVE TO ITS EAST...THIS WAVE ALSO REMAINS
WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
38W-45W. THIS WAVE MAY BE EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE N ON
THE 18 UTC ANALYSIS TO ACCOUNT FOR ROTATING CLOUDS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR AS ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAY BUT IT STILL DOES SHOW SOME SIGNATURE. THE RAIN SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY COVERS 15N-19N BETWEEN
69W-74W. SOME OF THE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA ARE BECOMING MORE
CONVECTIVE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A FEW BUOY AND SHIP
OBS HAVE SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W SOUTH OF 14N. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC AND IS POSSIBLY AIDING IN GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE EAST PACIFIC.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N24W 7N34W 9N44W 5N60W.
BESIDES FOR THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST E OF 17W FROM 4N-16N. AT THIS
POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS COVERS THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO WITH RIDGING COVERING THE W GULF WITH
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THIS REGION EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME
NW CORNER. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF IS IN THIS
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGHS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FLOWING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
STREAMING INTO THE NE GULF AND FED INTO THE TRANSITIONING
EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE MOST NOTABLE ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF TO FLORIDA FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 81W-86W. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS IS IN THE NW GULF...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 92W-98W. AT THE SFC...
A TROUGH IS DRAPED FROM T.D. ALBERTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO 24N93W. THIS TROUGH HAS LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR THE
AXIS BUT DOES HAVE A VERY NOTABLE WIND SHIFT LEFT BEHIND BY
ALBERTO. MUCH OF THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REGION N OF 15N W OF
75W. A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED TO ALONG 70W ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 69W-74W. OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN ON PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR
EXTENDS WELL BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 300 NM OR SO. CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE S PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
SOME OF THIS MOISTURE THEN TURNS N/NEWARD ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED IN TERMS OF ITS SHOWER ACTIVITY
BUT IT WILL PUSH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS
ARE NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE SEA...THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE WINDS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A GENERAL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS THE
ATLANTIC BASIN SOUTH OF 32N. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS HAS RIDGING EXTENDING NEWARD TO 32N60W. BROAD
ILL-DEFINED TROUGHING LIES TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH TWO
UPPER LOWS EMBEDDED IN THIS VAGUE TROUGH. ONE UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N55W. THIS LOW IS GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. A BROAD WEAKER
UPPER LOW LIES FURTHER TO THE NE NEAR 29N35W. BROAD RIDGING
COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SE OF THE TROUGH TO ITS WEST NAMELY
E OF 40W S OF 25. A LARGE UPPER LOW LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 37N13W WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NE CORNER
OF THE AREA N OF 26N E OF OF 23W. NONE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES ARE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCERS OR HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED SFC REFLECTION IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE
SFC...A DOMINATING 1031 MB AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N38W
CONTAINS RIDGING THAT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN N
OF 15N. QUIET WEATHER LIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES
EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES
AND THE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR
24N55W.

$$
CANGIALOSI

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 142239
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL ROTATION N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
BUT A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 2N-14N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IS ALONG 44W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL ROTATION WITH LITTLE CURVATURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 8N41W-11N46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS NOT AS WELL-DEFINED AS YESTERDAY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA NE TO HISPANIOLA.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150
NM OF LINE 16N67W-20N78W INCLUDING THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 70W-73W.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N19W 6N36W 5N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST S OF 17N W OF 8W. BROAD AREA
OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE TROPICS FROM 1N-14N BETWEEN 10W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SSW ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE W GULF TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
NEAR 28N94W THEN TO A BASE NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NE GULF
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA TO 25N92W WITH A
WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATES THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO ACROSS
PENSACOLA FLORIDA. AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE N BAHAMAS IS GIVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S TO SE FLOW. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF
THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND E ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND FEEDING A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE
FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
30N82W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE N BAHAMAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N89W. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN...SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN...THUS INDUCING THE INVERTED TROUGH
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. MODERATE/STRONG TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND WILL DO SO FOR MUCH THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W EXTENDS A RIDGE NE
ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N67W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE NW OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO ARE GENERATING AN AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N78W NE TO
BEYOND BERMUDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS DOMINATED
BY A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS/RIDGES. UPPER LOWS ARE CENTERED
NEAR 23N56W...29N36W...AND A THIRD OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL.
THIS IS SETTING UP A TUTT EXTENDING FROM SPAIN/PORTUGAL SW TO
JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N FROM THE AFRICA TO
FLORIDA.

$$
WALLACE

[bvigal]

SouthFloridawx - thanks for posting these. I've had computer problems all day and couldn't get online!!

[SouthFloridawx]

SouthFloridawx - thanks for posting these. I've had computer problems all day and couldn't get online!!

Hey no problem it only takes a few seconds to copy and paste.