Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #1

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no advance
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#101 Postby no advance » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:06 am

I still think the cent. atl. wave will fizzle out. Outflow means doom for cyclone devel..
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#102 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:07 am

Not necessarily....shear is expected to weaken...
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#103 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:10 am

I agree with you, no advance...

I think the one to look at for development in the next few days will be the one already in the eastern carribean... as it makes it's way to the western carribean...
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#104 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:16 am

The Eastern Caribbean storm right now probably has the better chance of development. Temps are warm, shear is decreasing, and dry air is limited. Its almost like the Caribbean wants this wave to form.
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#105 Postby Ivan14 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:19 am

I do believe we will get our next tropical system from the wave entering the Caribbean.
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#106 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:24 am

If we do, the boards will be going crazy again, just like when Alberto reached 70 mph.
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#107 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:26 am

Are conditions over the next few days favorable for development with the carribean wave?
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#108 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:28 am

fwbbreeze wrote: One model suggests it might be a threat to form into something that approaches Texas/Louisiana in 6-7 days.


I don't know if many people will like that statement from Eglin. TX and LA are not the best places for a storm to hit right now.
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#109 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:30 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Are conditions over the next few days favorable for development with the carribean wave?


Well they will be since the shear is decreasing aswell as dry air..
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#110 Postby Ivan14 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:45 am

If it just gets more organized it has a good shot at developing.
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#111 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:53 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
fwbbreeze wrote: One model suggests it might be a threat to form into something that approaches Texas/Louisiana in 6-7 days.


I don't know if many people will like that statement from Eglin. TX and LA are not the best places for a storm to hit right now.


Can some please post the link to this site? Thanks!
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#112 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:54 am

Stormcenter wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
fwbbreeze wrote: One model suggests it might be a threat to form into something that approaches Texas/Louisiana in 6-7 days.


I don't know if many people will like that statement from Eglin. TX and LA are not the best places for a storm to hit right now.


Can some please post the link to this site? Thanks!
fwbbreeze had posted this on the last page: http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/
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#113 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:54 am

here is the latest sat. loop of the eastern Carrib. wave:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html
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#114 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:00 pm

Considering how healthy this wave is looking right now ... and JB talking about a "pulse of development" next week in the Gulf ... and how wet the GFS is looking next week for us in the western Gulf ... I am getting a bit concerned about this system.
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#115 Postby Rieyeuxs » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:04 pm

I understand that this (the E Car. waves) does not meet the qualifications of a TD right now, but what are the perimeters for issuing an invest? I always thought that invests were just areas of strong interest and had a better than average chance of development (obviously many don't).

Learning moment here. What are the qualifications for an official invest?

Thanks!
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#116 Postby Rainband » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:06 pm

Portastorm wrote:Considering how healthy this wave is looking right now ... and JB talking about a "pulse of development" next week in the Gulf ... and how wet the GFS is looking next week for us in the western Gulf ... I am getting a bit concerned about this system.
Relax it's a week away or more.
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#117 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:23 pm

Louisiana definitely does not need even a cat 1 hurricane right now. I have seen current katrina aftermath photos from parts of LA/MS and there are still places with debree around. Hurricane force winds would turn it into deadly projectiles :(
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#118 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:25 pm

Rainband wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Considering how healthy this wave is looking right now ... and JB talking about a "pulse of development" next week in the Gulf ... and how wet the GFS is looking next week for us in the western Gulf ... I am getting a bit concerned about this system.
Relax it's a week away or more.
yeah, it is about 6-8 days out, so no need to panic yet, but I would definitely stay alert.
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#119 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:28 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Rainband wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Considering how healthy this wave is looking right now ... and JB talking about a "pulse of development" next week in the Gulf ... and how wet the GFS is looking next week for us in the western Gulf ... I am getting a bit concerned about this system.
Relax it's a week away or more.
yeah, it is about 6-8 days out, so no need to panic yet, but I would definitely stay alert.


I'm not buying plywood yet :lol: but all I was trying to say was this system has my attention given all of the aforementioned ideas.

Again, for a wave so early in the season ... it's satellite presentation is "robust."
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#120 Postby benny » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:28 pm

Impressive wave. Both of them! It will be interesting to see in a few days when the Puerto Rico wave hits the western Caribbean. It looks like the waves are about a month ahead of time.. this is more typical of July than June. However I imagine they will weaken by the end of two weeks or so if the MJO leaves the area.
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