Houston under SPC "slight risk" for svr. Wx

[Extremeweatherguy]

After an extended hot and dry period, there is a 30% chance of storms in Houston today:

This Afternoon: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high around 96. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Part of the HWO:

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARKANSAS MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO EAST TEXAS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

The SPC has us under a "see text" wording for severe weather today. There is a slight chance for coin sized severe hail and isolated severe wind gusts. From the SPC:

...PARTS OF SERN TX...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX THIS
PERIOD...AS WEAK VORT MAX NOW OVER NRN TX MOVES SSEWD INTO THIS
REGION. WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST...AND 30 TO
35 KT NLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS...LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL OR
WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS MAY EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT
FOR HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

[jasons2k]

Looks like the CU field is building to the N and NE, maybe we'll get lucky and see something. Getting tired of the hot & dry pattern....reminds me of summer in Dallas, not here.

[jasons2k]

Now storms on the radar to the North of Houston moving southward...

[Extremeweatherguy]

svr. warnings now east of the city, looks like the storms to the north may also become severe as they push south! I just hope we get some rain out of this!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The SPC has now put Houston under a "slight risk" for severe weather:



...SERN TX...
CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT SETTLING SWWD ACROSS ERN TX WAS
AIDING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF HOU ATTM. MEANWHILE... A
40-50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WAS SPREADING SWD ATOP THE INSTABILITY
AXIS AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL.


Also, here is the latest Meso discussion:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 132037Z - 132230Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE TX OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR WACO INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. THE
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS EAST TX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES IN PLACE WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR MAINLY
ABOVE 700 MB. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. THE LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006

[jasons2k]

svr. warnings now east of the city, looks like the storms to the north may also become severe as they push south! I just hope we get some rain out of this!

Me too, the first line kinda fell apart and dodged my house on both sides, but it looks like some more may be going-up in northern Montgomery Co....

[KatDaddy]

Hey jschlitz!

Glad to have met you at the hurricane conference. My Roadrunner Internet Connection has been down since week thus I am missing all the Alberto fun which includes the chatroom. A busy season has started.

Watching the storm clouds off to my N. Looks like a decent outflow boundary moving rapidly SSW. The storms look quite small but intense on radar.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My area was missed by every storm.. Guess I will have to wait until this weekend for some rain.

[KatDaddy]

Wow! That was some wind on the way home from Clear Lake to League City. I was driving along El Dorado approching Highway 3 headed West to I-45 with 40-50MPH winds. Dust, trash, and limbs were flying down the street. No rain but a very impressive gust front.

[CajunMama]

Someone got some good rain to the east of Houston. Checked the nws site and houston is within our radar and was surprised to see those storms.

[Stormtrack]

I got 4/10ths of an inch of rain at my house in Angleton over night. Somethings better than nothing I guess. I happened to be near Baybrook Mall yesterday when that wind started blowing. You don't realize how much trash people throw down until you see it flying around in the air. There was a lot of huge bolts of lightning at the same time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are some storm reports from the area:

2115 UNK 5 SE KINGWOOD HARRIS TX 3001 9513 NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN WITH SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED (HGX)

2145 UNK CROSBY HARRIS TX 2991 9506 TREES AND STREET SIGNS DOWN IN CROSBY. (HGX)

2225 UNK LEAGUE CITY GALVESTON TX 2949 9511 NUMEROUS FENCES AND STORE SIGNS BLOWN DOWN. SEMI-TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON I-45 BLOCKING TRAFFIC. (HGX)

2245 UNK 12 SE SUGAR LAND FORT BEND TX 2950 9548 TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN SIENNA PLANTATION (HGX)

2335 UNK WEST COLUMBIA BRAZORIA TX 2914 9565 NUMEROUS TREES...POWER LINES AND STORE SIGNS DOWN IN WEST COLUMBIA. (HGX)