Wave system at C.Carib.,Sat. Images,Comments,Discussion #1

[Brent]

It's a nice looking wave, but I don't think it will develop; rain will probably be the biggest concern.

I don't think it will either. It's the Eastern Caribbean(which isn't favorable anytime of the year), and it's Mid June. It wouldn't completely surprise me, but I do think this is more of a preview of things to come than anything. Looks like another very busy season.

[The Hurricaner]

Shear tendency.

Will that help push it towards us or make it dissipate?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right now the conditions are unfavorable but I think over time they might become more favorable for development.

[MiamiensisWx]

On a side note, it is interesting to note that MANY Atlantic tropical cyclones have developed in a similar area with a similar satellite and low-level/upper-level presentation. If environmental conditions would be more favorable, this system would have a very real chance at development if it could establish an LLC/low center.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Shear right now is currently decreasing, won't that help with development?

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't expect development out of this, by the way, at least in the shorter term. It is rather diffuse, and it is interacting with higher shear from a trough WITHOUT a well-defined circulation; all of this is HIGHLY unfavorable for development. With better supports, however, it would bear watching.

[CHRISTY]

actually this wave has about 20-30 knots of shear over it right now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

[The Hurricaner]

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO NEAR 32N68W. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE W
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
RATHER STRONG TROPICAL WAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS ENTERED
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING TOWARDS
THE GREATER ANTILLES. HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N W OF 71W BUT
THIS AREA WILL BE MOISTENING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
TRACK WESTWARD. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERALLY NEAR 15-25 KT. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE TROPICAL
WAVE. MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

[cycloneye]

Well as all know from the thread of the effects in Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands and the Leewards this wave has carried a punch with squally weather in the NE Caribbean islands in bands that are moving rapidly.And the most stronger part of the wave is passing south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.We will have to watch this wave as it moves to the Western Caribbean and see if it gets favorable conditions there or not.

[MiamiensisWx]

The trades and upper levels over the west-central to eastern Atlantic are quite impressive this early on, and it is rather reminescent of 1996 and several other years. The upper-level support would really help Cape Verde formation, despite some higher shear values.

[Derek Ortt]

I wouldnt say that the E Carib is unfavorable all year long, espcially after recent years have featured storms typically undergoing RI in the E Carib (Charley, Dennis, Emily, Ivan, etc). Also, many as of late have actually been forming there

that said, I dont expect this to be one of them

[HouTXmetro]

At the rate it's moving it should be out of the hostile east carrib in no time.

[CrazyC83]

It might develop, but not for a while - if it were to become Beryl, it won't until it gets well into the Caribbean. (Heck, it could also cross into the Pacific as a wave and develop into Bud there)

[MiamiensisWx]

At the rate it's moving it should be out of the hostile east carrib in no time.

The fast and diffuse movement is likely indicative of the unfavorable environment over and just ahead of it. Faster moving systems under these type of synoptics often have struggling surviving, especially without a well-defined center; even with a well-defined center, a similar budding system would often struggle under these synoptics. Therefore, I don't expect development in the short term, although it MAY have a slightly better chance later on.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think this will develop once it reaches the western Carrib. or Gulf.

[HouTXmetro]

Anyone notice the rotation associated with this wave? It's near 63.5 W and 14N. The NOAA satellites overlays indicates there is at least a mid-upper level circulation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[JamesFromMaine2]

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

[SouthFloridawx]

This area should slow down in forward speed as it moves into the western central caribbean.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am going to give this a 50% chance of development before June 20th.