Wave system at C.Carib.,Sat. Images,Comments,Discussion #1

[Stratosphere747]

I think this will develop once it reaches the western Carrib. or Gulf.

Looking for an impact on the Western Gulf area, possibly Texas?

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Is this wave forecast to slow down in the next few days?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think this will develop once it reaches the western Carrib. or Gulf.

Looking for an impact on the Western Gulf area, possibly Texas?

If it does develop, then yes, the likely path would be into the western Gulf.

[CHRISTY]

VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

[Noles2006]

It's far too early to even speculate on a "likely path"... geez!

[Brent]

It's far too early to even speculate on a "likely path"... geez!

Yeah...

[Stratosphere747]

I think this will develop once it reaches the western Carrib. or Gulf.

Looking for an impact on the Western Gulf area, possibly Texas?

If it does develop, then yes, the likely path would be into the western Gulf.

Maybe you can elaborate for us. Whatever this wave could end up being, is as likely to move towards Central America as the Gulf.

What makes you feel that the Gulf and specifically the Western Gulf would be a target area?

[rockyman]

Yes, Stratosphere747, Texas is a possibility...So is Florida, so is Maine, so is Honduras...anyone who tells you that something is "likely" is just blowing smoke...no meteorologist or even serious amateur will tell you any particular path is likely at this point. There are simply too many variables...speed of development, strength of system, strength and path of dozens of other weather systems across the globe, etc etc etc.

[meteorologyman]

I think this will develop once it reaches the western Carrib. or Gulf.

Looking for an impact on the Western Gulf area, possibly Texas?

If it does develop, then yes, the likely path would be into the western Gulf.

Maybe you can elaborate for us. Whatever this wave could end up being, is as likely to move towards Central America as the Gulf.

What makes you feel that the Gulf and specifically the Western Gulf would be a target area?

yeah from what I understand, there is a BIG Strong ridge over Texas which is why you're dry and when any storm head your way it goes around the ridge which leaves you dry,....... Unfortanately as long as that ridge is there you'll remain dry, and probably no hope for even a tropical rainfall like Alberto.

[cycloneye]

Let's watch that area around 15n South of Puerto Rico as aparently a little flareup has occured there.Let's see persistance for more than 24 hours.

[CHRISTY]

Guys here is my take on this wave near the Antilles...If you take a look a at the the Water Vapor imagery its becomes obvious that this is entering a very unfavorable upperlevel environment.you can see the the cloud tops being pulled off to the NE by the shear over the system.also i will say there appears to be a ULL to the waves NW..Thats not good for development.and to finish out ahead of the wave you can see the harsh upper-level winds blowing out of the NNE over eastern cuba.because of these conditions i do not expect any development from this tropical wave.
Of course after 2005 anything is possible....
Here's the link to the WATER VAPOR IIMAGERY watch what is happening in the upper levels around this tropical wave. chrisy

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[Audrey2Katrina]

I was noticing that too... if this thing starts to close up, that flare could well be near the center.

A2K

[rockyman]

Hey, Luis...that's where I noticed the mid-level swirl a few hours ago...too bad we're losing visible for the day

[B'hamBlazer]

Let's watch that area around 15n South of Puerto Rico as aparently a little flareup has occured there.Let's see persistance for more than 24 hours.

Yep... in a warm SST area and not particularly vulnerable to dry air as that little central core is, for the most part, surrounded by convection. If it can begin to breathe a little and get some good outflow, I'd say that's got pretty strong potential. Sheer doesnt look like it's having as great of an impact in that region as much as it is to its north. Next 24-32hrs will be key.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I see what you're talking about, Christy; but these things have a way of surviving some shear...case-in-point: Alberto... That area Luis mentioned is far enough south to become the area around which something could potentially develop. I'm sure not going to make any predictions; but watching this one's path could still wind up being interesting.

A2K

[Portastorm]

Meteorologyman, actually the "Western Sizzler" ridge over us in Texas is predicted to shift some to the west and open up the coastal region of the state for an upper level trough progged to remain for much of next week.

I know one thing ... the ridge must be right over us in Austin ... because as I type this, it's 101 degrees outside!

[CHRISTY]

here's another IR image....

[stormtruth]

Meteorologyman, actually the "Western Sizzler" ridge over us in Texas is predicted to shift some to the west and open up the coastal region of the state for an upper level trough progged to remain for much of next week.

I know one thing ... the ridge must be right over us in Austin ... because as I type this, it's 101 degrees outside!

Yeesh. 101 is no fun

[ammmyjjjj]

Great picture. Am I imagining this, or am I starting to see a center?

[The Hurricaner]

Hmm...that does look something like a center. could be a dry thing. or that may just fade away in time.