Wave system at C.Carib.,Sat. Images,Comments,Discussion #1

[rockyman]

The area were alberto hit was under LOW under his strike graphic....goes to show thats why there only predictions.

actually, based on his impact point system, he predicted at least some impact from storms this year in western FL. As long as no major storm hits that area, his forecast will be on track.

"On track"? If I miss the first 10 questions on a 50 question exam, I can still make a "B"....if I get the next 40 correct. I'd say so far JB is not on track...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The area were alberto hit was under LOW under his strike graphic....goes to show thats why there only predictions.

actually, based on his impact point system, he predicted at least some impact from storms this year in western FL. As long as no major storm hits that area, his forecast will be on track.

"On track"? If I miss the first 10 questions on a 50 question exam, I can still make a "B"....if I get the next 40 correct. I'd say so far JB is not on track...

ok, you can think what you want, but I still say that he is "on track". Most people on here constantly bash JB, but so far he has not been that wrong this season. I mean come on, he said that a "gulf pulse period" was coming around June 10th WEEKS in advance...and look what happened: Alberto. I would say that he is doing pretty well.

[Ivanhater]

The area were alberto hit was under LOW under his strike graphic....goes to show thats why there only predictions.

actually, based on his impact point system, he predicted at least some impact from storms this year in western FL. As long as no major storm hits that area, his forecast will be on track.

Well I sure don't want to prove him wrong

[wxmann_91]

This thing is really badly sheared due to an UL trough. Also, the GFS hints on this moving more toward the EPAC rather than go in the GOM. The NHC 72 hr analysis EWG posted a while back shows this happening.

[rockyman]

I'm sure he's pleased to have your support

[Ivanhater]

This thing is really badly sheared due to an UL trough. Also, the GFS hints on this moving more toward the EPAC rather than go in the GOM. The NHC 72 hr analysis EWG posted a while back shows this happening.

Ya, the trough is actually enhancing convection at the moment as well.

[rockyman]

The trough could help lower pressures by creating convection...brings to mind the old saying: That which doesn't kill us makes us stronger

[curtadams]

None of the big 4 globals (CMC, UKM, GFS, NOGAPS) see anything developing in the Carribean in the next few days. Keep in mind a lot of things need to happen at once for tropical development, not all of which can be seen (such as moist air stacked up throughout the troposphere). So I would say development of this wave is very unlikely.

[CHRISTY]

Guys i posted this earlier....dont know if u guys read my thoughts.

Guys here is my take on this wave near the Antilles...If you take a look a at the the Water Vapor imagery its becomes obvious that this is entering a very unfavorable upperlevel environment.you can see the the cloud tops being pulled off to the NE by the shear over the system.also i will say there appears to be a ULL to the waves NW..Thats not good for development.and to finish out ahead of the wave you can see the harsh upper-level winds blowing out of the NNE over eastern cuba.because of these conditions i do not expect any development from this tropical wave.
Of course after 2005 anything is possible....
Here's the link to the WATER VAPOR IIMAGERY watch what is happening in the upper levels around this tropical wave. chrisy

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just read JB's latest post and it says that he thinks these three Atlantic waves will be fuel for the "gulf pulse" over the next two weeks. He also said he would be surprised if no development came from this.

Now this does not mean he thinks that these waves will directly become a storm, but it does mean that he is thinking that "something" (likely with help from these waves) will spin up in the Gulf before the end of the month. He also thinks it will be further west than with the last system.

[HouTXmetro]

The Canadian is hinting at a Low threatening the TX/LA coast down the road.

[wxmann_91]

This thing is really badly sheared due to an UL trough. Also, the GFS hints on this moving more toward the EPAC rather than go in the GOM. The NHC 72 hr analysis EWG posted a while back shows this happening.

Ya, the trough is actually enhancing convection at the moment as well.

Well yeah, by enhancing UL divergence (not lowering pressures). Still, with such strong shear, nothing will develop. In other words, what CHRISTY said. The big thing though in the western Caribbean is an anticyclone, not a TUTT/ul low, notice the way it's rotating

[mvtrucking]

here's another IR image....

That is one nice image Christy.

[bigmike]

Christy I believe I heard someone say this earlier but you obviously boned up on your meterology this winter. I have been very impressed with your posts this year. They are well thought and enjoyable to read. You go girl.

[CHRISTY]

Christy I believe I heard someone say this earlier but you obviously boned up on your meterology this winter. I have been very impressed with your posts this year. They are well thought and enjoyable to read. You go girl.

Thanks...means alot.

[HouTXmetro]

The hint of circulation in that loop appears to be holding together. I noticed that spin hours ago.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

[windycity]

ditto on that thought! Christy, your posts might make one think that youre taking hurricanes 101 at night. Its very impressive.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
WELL-DEFINED IN THE MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-68W INCLUDING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W AND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 60W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.


8 PM Discussion about Eastern Caribbean wave.

[The Hurricaner]

Congragulations, ok about that wave....houtexmetro ya i saw that too.

[Audrey2Katrina]

That's quite a flareup going on there, the good news for those Lesser Antilles is that it's a fast mover. I'll be watching to see where it goes from here; but conditions being what they are, if it stays in the Caribbean it could well amount to something -- looks like a pretty determined westward track right now.

A2K