MJO

[Coredesat]

For the Atlantic being in the wet phase of the MJO, there sure is a lot of dry air out there.

[WindRunner]

Perfect timing . . . looks like it will peak in the Caribbean by the time some of those waves out there reach the Caribbean as well. Could make things interesting . . .

[wxwatcher91]

the SAL kinda killed off that one east Atl low that was looking good for a while. let's see if the huge wave off Africa can survive

[cycloneye]

the SAL kinda killed off that one east Atl low that was looking good for a while. let's see if the huge wave off Africa can survive

In general I haved noticed somewhat less sal than last year and more moist air in the african corridor between the Lesser Antilles and Western Africa.

[terstorm1012]

theres no drought in niger/mali/chad this year unlike last year...might be why

[windycity]

The SAL chart is great, doesnt look like lasat year.

[benny]

For the Atlantic being in the wet phase of the MJO, there sure is a lot of dry air out there.

It is actually a lot moister than average.. all of the convection in the ITCZ reflects some of that. June is not particularly favorable for TCs out there, even last year with the warmest SSTs couldn't get things going until July.

These active waves are forecast by the numerical models for at least the next week as the active part of the "MJO" moves through.. though its composition is likely a whole host of atmospheric waves (rossby, kelvin etc) at this point. The weekly MJO update at CPC is a good place for info:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.ppt

[cycloneye]

MJO Graphic

Right now unfavorable conditions are the rule in the whole basin.However in the next 3 weeks favorable MJO will make conditions better for cyclogeneris to take place.

[wxman57]

I prefer this web site and forecast of MJO. The blue areas are reduced OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiaion) due to convection. Note the dark blue forecast for the east Pac and Caribbean by mid July.

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO/MJO.forecast.olr.png

[SouthFloridawx]

I prefer this web site and forecast of MJO. The blue areas are reduced OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiaion) due to convection. Note the dark blue forecast for the east Pac and Caribbean by mid July.

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO/MJO.forecast.olr.png

I got a feeling things in the tropics are going to start heating up during that time from as indicated by the mjo forecast. I use the ncep site to look at the mjo forecast's and it has been indicating a return of MJO in the atlantic basin after the 10th of July.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/ewp.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

Shows MJO in most of the Pacific possibly on the fringes of reaching the Atlantic basin.

[cycloneye]

Shows MJO in most of the Pacific possibly on the fringes of reaching the Atlantic basin.

That explains why the Pacific ITCZ is very active right now.

Thanks to wxman57 for that link of MJO forecast.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like a positive MJO cycle is starting to enter the Atlantic Basin.

[/quote]

[cycloneye]

The wet or favorable MJO looks like it's starting to penetrate parts of the Atlantic Basin.And also it looks like the Western Caribbean will be favorable in the next 2 weeks to cyclogeneris accoding to another forecast of MJO.

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO/MJO.forecast.olr.png

[bvigal]

Here's a pretty good online training on MJO via COMET.
http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/beyond_mjo/navmenu0.htm

[cycloneye]

Bumpimg thread for all to see how is the MJO doing.Still it has no arrived in the Atlantic.But by next week it will start to penetrate the Atlantic Basin.

[abajan]

It appears that the wet phase of the MJO has pretty much arrived!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

[Derek Ortt]

and may not have a strong effect for the Atlntic, like the Pacific.

I remember that was one point of contention during my trop met class in spring of 2005

[HurricaneHunter914]

It may have a strong affect on 96L though.