Wave system at C.Carib.,Sat. Images,Comments,Discussion #1

[wxwatcher91]

shear is on the increase in the extreme eastern carib. decreasing just to the west of the wave. IMO it has a chance if it can survive this. if anything remains, it could move into the central and western Carib, where shear is currently lower (and falling) and ocean temps are high.

[KatDaddy]

At last back online after having no Internet connection since early last week.

The tropical waves are looking very healthy for this time of year. It will be interesting if the wind shear lessens in the W Caribbean and allow development.

[Aquawind]

Welcome Back! You only missed Alberto..lol.. Plenty to come though..

[rockyman]

Low level flow is very fast toward the WNW, which should bring this system quickly toward Jamaica and south of Cuba in 48-72 hours...the question then becomes...how quickly does the weakness left by Alberto "fill in"? This map shows the current low level flow:




Since the first place in the CONUS that would be threatened is Florida, and because the system is within range of Florida in the 4-5 day timeframe, I thought I'd analyze the models going out to 72 hours (beyond that, the models are pretty much a crapshoot anyway):

The Canadian still shows a significant weakness in 48 hours...within 10 degrees latitude of our system near Jamaica...At 72 hours, the weakness fills in, which might allow for path across Cuba and possibly toward Florida or the eastern Gulf.

The GFS shows a quickly rebuilding high over the Gulf between 48 and 72 hours (with our system about 15 degrees latitude away from the post-Alberto trough axis)...which would tend to direct the storm further west away from Florida (possibly toward the Yucatan then west central Gulf)

The NOGAPS is in between these 2 solutions, with perhaps a movement toward the Yucatan Channel

The UKMet quickly closes the post-Alberto weakness, but shows weaker ridging over the Gulf...which could also lead to movement toward the Channel

The MM5 leaves a significant weakness east of Florida, which could pose a threat to Florida or even the Bahamas.

So, bottom line...the system could most anywhere...but the majority of the models would tend to favor a threat to the U.S.

Of course, if the system goes poof, this is all for naught

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

All models are for 12z (except 18z UKMet)

All of this is with the general caveat that stronger storms will be more affected by the trough moving out...and weaker storms will tend to be less affected and will tend to go further west.

[The Hurricaner]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

It looks like its starting a spin in the middle, any met know exactly what it is?

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

It looks like its starting a spin in the middle, any met know exactly what it is?

could be a mid level circulation

[Weatherfreak14]

so whats the chance of this devolping?

[Audrey2Katrina]

I'd say it depends on shear reduction, as well as where the steering currents take it.

A2K

[The Hurricaner]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 140306
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA ABOUT
55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STATESBORO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

Poof!

Not surprised since it's Mid-June.

[Grease Monkey]

Not even quite mid June yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Poof!

Not surprised since it's Mid-June.

it's not even close to poof yet. Just because there is not deep convection, that does not mean there is no wave. This wave WILL hold together as it heads westward and it will periodically have deep convection associated with it. The point to start really watching though is once it reaches the western Carrib. or Gulf in 2-6 days where conditions may be better for development.

[HurricaneHunter914]

It lost its convection before so losing its convection now is no suprise. It will probably regenerate later.

[bigmike]

Poof!

Not surprised since it's Mid-June.

it's not even close to poof yet. Just because there is not deep convection, that does not mean there is no wave. This wave WILL hold together as it heads westward and it will periodically have deep convection associated with it. The point to start really watching though is once it reaches the western Carrib. or Gulf in 2-6 days where conditions may be better for development.

Yeah then it can head toward Spring TX as a category 5.

[Grease Monkey]

Will the fact that we're getting all these tropical waves off the coast of Africa earlier than usual, greatly effect the SST's in the atlantic from getting as warm as they normally would by the time August-September rolls around?

[Thunder44]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 140919
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALBERTO...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER
ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...ARE
GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF
EITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[windycity]

i dont think SSTs would be effected by these waves. I think we will continue seeing these come off the coast, while SSTs climb higher in the coming months.

[rockyman]

Is anyone concerned about the convection in the SW Caribbean? The Canadian is showing a low pressure festering there for the next few days...it has a good curved shape and some intense storms....low shear...climatologically favored area...the steering flow should move the system up toward Nicaragua...



The MM5 is also showing this low pressure system:


If anyone thinks this is worthy of a separate topic...please feel free to open one. Thanks and good morning!!

[windycity]

hum, interesting. Now lets see if the other models pick it up.

[HurricaneHunter914]

These waves just keep on coming.