A possible LLC at 8N 32W? Need help

[drezee]

I can not get a better look at it! Anyone have a goo site to use beside NASA GHCC?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... e0GoRE.jpg

[drezee]

Found one!!!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[beachbum_al]

I don't know if it is me but I could not get the link to work.

[JamesFromMaine2]

take the . out of it at the very end and it will work I had the same problem until I foud it! lol

[beachbum_al]

Thank James

[JamesFromMaine2]

yup no problem!
heres the working link for any one else
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[canegrl04]

There should be an invest on this before the end of the day

[boca]

Nice little swirl at 32°W and yes their should be an invest on this.

[HURAKAN]

Looks nice but convection must increase.

[no advance]

Doubt if it wil ever develop.

[drezee]

Doubt if it wil ever develop.

You should post why you feel this why to help others.

[Hyperstorm]

Doubt if it wil ever develop.

You should post why you feel this why to help others.

Drezee...

I think the same should be asked of the people who say that one of these waves will likely develop.

As I mentioned previously, I've noticed over the years that in the Eastern Atlantic it takes a little more than 80-81* SSTs to develop something. This has to do with the stable atmosphere that normally prevails in this area during June/July. Thus, right now...SSTs are only marginal for development.

The most interesting factor that I think is going against these waves right now is the dry air surrounding them to the north and northeast. It is debatable whether it is actual SAL or due to the southern extension of the Azores High drawing the dry air from the cooler waters up north, but in any case, it is not helping them. You can tell by the way the thunderstorm activity this morning was weak/moderate at most throughout this region. You can have an idea of dry air causing an impact when we not see the usual explosion of thunderstorms relating to the nocturnal maxima during the morning hours.

It is still June and I wouldn't worry about anything developing this far, this early. Yes, I would monitor these waves, but will not panic or predict anything atypical about them until they move further west across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean Sea or I see improving atmospheric/environmental conditions.

[tailgater]

Drezee, I think the T-storms are fairly impressive( mostly mid levels) but the wave directly in front of it has a very healthy signature and would have a better chance because of it's Lat. and size.

[drezee]

Doubt if it wil ever develop.

You should post why you feel this why to help others.

Drezee...

I think the same should be asked of the people who say that one of these waves will likely develop.

As I mentioned previously, I've noticed over the years that in the Eastern Atlantic it takes a little more than 80-81* SSTs to develop something. This has to do with the stable atmosphere that normally prevails in this area during June/July. Thus, right now...SSTs are only marginal for development.

The most interesting factor that I think is going against these waves right now is the dry air surrounding them to the north and northeast. It is debatable whether it is actual SAL or due to the southern extension of the Azores High drawing the dry air from the cooler waters up north, but in any case, it is not helping them. You can tell by the way the thunderstorm activity this morning was weak/moderate at most throughout this region. You can have an idea of dry air causing an impact when we not see the usual explosion of thunderstorms relating to the nocturnal maxima during the morning hours.

It is still June and I wouldn't worry about anything developing this far, this early. Yes, I would monitor these waves, but will not panic or predict anything atypical about them until they move further west across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean Sea or I see improving atmospheric/environmental conditions.

I agree to a point Hyper. I mean an easy explanation is because it hasn't happened to our knowledge in history. I will chime in on this situation a little differently. I have always like tropical waves that have a moisture laden sacrificial wave right in front of it. This normally does not happen in June. The normal progression is a lone wave is strong for the time of year and has no environmental support. This wave on the other hand has a nice wave in front of it to "plow" the dry road in a sense. Do I believe it will develop? Maybe, I'd say 25/75 against. Normally, I would say 1/99 though. So in a sense, I think it has a much better chance than most waves. The SSTs at 8N are not marginal, they are quite warm.

[NONAME]

It will not devlop atleast before it reaches the Caribbean. Because of Shear and Unfavorable SST and Climatalogy.

[cycloneye]

drezee,You dont have to worrie about this thread being locked as your initial question was good for a new thread.Also the discussions are going good in here.

Hyperstorm,I have a question about the Saharan Air Layer.How do you see the Atlantic this year in terms of more moist air or less sal?

[SouthFloridawx]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A RATHER
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 20
KT. SIMILARITY TO THE WAVE TO ITS EAST...THIS WAVE ALSO REMAINS
WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
38W-45W. THIS WAVE MAY BE EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE N ON
THE 18 UTC ANALYSIS TO ACCOUNT FOR ROTATING CLOUDS N OF 14N.


2 PM Discussion of waves in the Atlantic.

[caneman]

After the last few years, I would discount anything.

[Thunder44]

I noticed this wave this morning. And I noticed that the TWO today doesn't mention this wave at all, even though it looked better than the other two waves.

[Hyperstorm]

drezee,You dont have to worrie about this thread being locked as your initial question was good for a new thread.Also the discussions are going good in here.

Hyperstorm,I have a question about the Saharan Air Layer.How do you see the Atlantic this year in terms of more moist air or less sal?

Cycloneye...

It is impossible to predict with great degree of certainty how widespread/frequent the SAL will be in any given year. It all depends on several factors including the strength/postion of the Azores High and any drought conditions over Central and Western Africa, etc...

From what I've seen,, the Azores High has been in a more southern position than usual for this early. This causes dry air from the North Atlantlic to come down into the tropical Atlantic. It also brings cooler waters to the NW coast of Africa. I believe I also read that there has been no significant drought conditions over Western Africa. If this holds true throughout the rest of the season, we might see less frequent outbreaks of SAL over the Eastern Atlantic and most of the dry air would come from the waters up north.

The average number of Cape Verde systems in any given year is 2-3, so we can see that the Eastern Atlantic is not the most favorable place for development anyhow...