Alberto SLOSH Storm Surge Plots

[karenfromheaven]

Landfall surge at Cedar Key: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/users/surge/a10_cdr_EOHW.gif

Tampa Bay Area surge plot: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/users/surge/a10_tpa_EOHW.gif

Surge levels at Appalach: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/users/surge/a10_apc_EOHW.gif

SLOSH stands for Sea Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes. It is a useful model for hurricane evacuation planning. From the NHC website:

The SLOSH model can also be run using forecast track and intensity data for an actual storm as it makes landfall. The model is highly responsive to the point of landfall, however. For such operational predictions, the SLOSH model has only limited utility. However, since the North and South Carolina WFOs indicated real-time SLOSH output allowed them to provide more specific storm surge forecasts to their customers during Hurricane Floyd (1999), the Hurricane Floyd Service Assessment includes a recommendation that the NWS Techniques Development Laboratory provide real-time SLOSH output to WFOs when a hurricane is within 12 hours of landfall.

Link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm#SLOSH

[Noles2006]

Yep, just as I expected... even this weak system will bring an 8' surge to Wakulla.

Hah, gonna have to call my parents and tell 'em to get the cars to higher ground and the boat out of the water!

['CaneFreak]

Good idea...thanks for the SLOSH data....

[caplan1]

can someone post the chart. I cant access ftp's at my work

[HurricaneGirl]

[img]ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/users/surge/a10_cdr_EOHW.gif[/img]

[HurricaneGirl]

Wow.. that image is pretty huge!

[karenfromheaven]

New plots from the NHC, somewhat lower surge solutions. NOTE: These are model runs, not official forecasts; please rely on local emergency officials:

Landfall surge at Cedar Key: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/users/surge/a11_cdr_EOHW.gif

Tampa Bay Area surge plot: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/users/surge/a11_tpa_EOHW.gif

Surge levels at Appalach: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/users/surge/a11_apc_EOHW.gif

[caplan1]

thank you

[MGC]

The big bend area of Florida has one of the highest surge risks. Hurricane Dennis last year sent a pretty good surge into that region despite hitting over 100 miles away. I drove along Hwy 98 last October and the damage was pretty bad considering how far removed the area was from landfall......MGC

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would hate to see what would happen if a Cat. 3/4/5 made a direct landfall in that area!

[Audrey2Katrina]

Really! This thing having a 10' surge in Levy, and nearly 8 in the Tampa areas, (granted only a model)... makes one only imagine what a major could bring in.

A2K

[Nimbus]

What were the final storm surges tallies for Alberto?

[Stratusxpeye]

Wow those surge forecasts are prety high for such a weak system. 7 Feet on aaverage in my area here. I would not want to see the forecast if a cat 4 rolled up into cedar key and we were on the east side. 65MPH TS Compared to say 130MPH Hurricane. 7 feet surge could theoretically be tripled almost to near 20 Feet.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Don't know the full measure of it; but from what I've heard reported, none of these (thankfully) panned out. Highest surge I heard reported was around 5 feet or so somewhere around Cedar Key. Anyone with later data? If this holds up Alberto really fizzled, and for the folks around landfall, I'm grateful it did.

A2K

[jasons2k]

My uncle form Dunedin reports that the surge there was nothing like the SLOSH map. I know someone is thinking "someone's sister's brother's cousin said so" but my uncle is a certified marine surveyor and a yachtmaster...so I trust his report is accurate.

[CrazyC83]

Wow those surge forecasts are prety high for such a weak system. 7 Feet on aaverage in my area here. I would not want to see the forecast if a cat 4 rolled up into cedar key and we were on the east side. 65MPH TS Compared to say 130MPH Hurricane. 7 feet surge could theoretically be tripled almost to near 20 Feet.

If a Category 5 storm made landfall around Panama City Beach (unlikely due to the cooler water near the coast, but not impossible), the storm surge would likely be in the 35-40 feet range, exceeding even Katrina.