By BAIRD HELGESON The Tampa Tribune
Published: Jun 14, 2006
TAMPA - Was Tropical Storm Alberto an anomaly or an ominous sign of storms to come?
The answer is: neither.
"Alberto is a very classic June tropical storm," said Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Don't expect Alberto to reveal much about what to expect the rest of the hurricane season, experts said.
Alberto began life Saturday as a tropical depression in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, about 50 miles southwest of Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba.
The storm pushed northwest through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. A midlevel trough - about the altitude that commercial airlines travel - then steered the storm to the northeast before it made landfall about lunchtime Tuesday at Adams Beach, about 50 miles southeast of Tallahassee.
There is little unusual about a storm like Alberto this time of year.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30, but in the past hurricanes have been reported throughout the year. In January 1955, Hurricane Alice whipped up 80 mph winds
Warm Water, Less Wind
Early-season storms typically form in the northwest Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico, areas that generally have warmer water and don't have enough wind shear to hobble a storm.
Wind shear - when wind directions change at various altitudes - typically prevents storms from forming in much of the Atlantic until the winds dissipate later in the summer.
Early-season storms generally remain weak due to the lack of warm water needed to strengthen.
Alberto remained poorly organized and lopsided throughout much of its life, with the most intense wind and rain on the eastern edge of the system.
Storms in June traditionally follow similar tracks, arcing either to the northeast or the northwest depending on midlevel winds.
Storm watchers will note that Alberto looked nearly identical to Tropical Storm Arlene, which kicked off the 2005 hurricane season.
Like Alberto, Arlene formed in the northwestern Caribbean, nearly reaching hurricane strength, and then weakened before making landfall June 11 in the Florida Panhandle.
Arlene ushered in what would become the most active Atlantic hurricane season in 154 years of recorded history. The 28 named storms caused at least 2,280 deaths and $100 billion in damage.
So is Alberto an indicator of an active season?
"There is absolutely no correlation between the start date of the hurricane season and the level of activity that follows for the rest of the season," said Frank Lepore, a spokesman with the National Hurricane Center.
2 Storms In June 2005
Storms in June are not new. An average of one tropical storm has formed every other June over the years, forecasters said.
Last June brought two storms, Arlene and Tropical Storm Bret.
Hurricane Audrey remains the most powerful of June's storms, with sustained winds reaching 145 mph before coming ashore on the Louisiana coast in 1957.
Some hurricane seasons have begun busy, only to become relatively humdrum.
In 1997, two storms formed before July. The rest of the year resulted in just three hurricanes.
Those anxious about this year's hurricane season can take some solace in past statistics, but they can't find much relief from forecasters.
Scientists are forecasting that the 2006 season could produce as many as 16 named storms, including six major hurricanes.
Forecasters predict that warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a favorable wind pattern will create more and bigger storms.
"Alberto could merely be a shot over the bow," said Jamie Rhome, a forecaster with the hurricane center.
Contact Baird Helgeson at (813) 259-7668 or bhelgeson
@tampatrib.com.
STORM STATS
Strongest hurricanes in June: Audrey in 1957 had 145 mph winds. Alma in 1966 had 130 mph winds. Agnes in 1972 had 85 mph winds.
Earliest Category 3 hurricane: Hurricane Able, May 15, 1951
Earliest hurricane to strike the United States: Alma struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.
Latest hurricane to strike the United States: Nov. 30, 1925, near Tampa
Sources: Tribune research, http://www.hurricane.com
http://www.tbo.com/news/metro/MGB88QD5FOE.html
