Watching the BOC

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Watching the BOC

#1 Postby tailgater » Wed Jun 14, 2006 1:04 pm

Just because it's slow right now, Otherwise I wouldn't be mentioning this.
@ 18N-89.3W over eastern Mexico there is a low level swirl heading WNW? with very few T-storms but I think this will change as it enters the BOC.
Here's some of my reasoning.

Climatology this region for this time of year.
Shear now
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
Shear forecast
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
Steering currents, fairly weak http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

And most of all there's nothing else that looks very exciting out there, which is probably a good thing but I need some stinking rain.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#2 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jun 15, 2006 8:38 am

This might be a good early call tailgater.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

#3 Postby tailgater » Thu Jun 15, 2006 8:55 am

Thanks dixiebreeze, that UUL over Texas is diving SW into Mexico and enhancing it a bit. The steering currents have changed a little to keep it out over water longer but Upper levels winds aren't that good yet.
So do you think it has much of a chance?
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#4 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:01 am

Looks like it could enhance moisture and thus convection over the western Gulf States over the weekend as it rounds the Ridge and gets drawn northward ahead of a trough expected over the Mississippi Valley this weekend. Something to keep an eye on but chances of TC development is very slim unless convection deepens and remains persistant.
0 likes   
My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

#5 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:02 am

Most of the Texas NWSFOs are bullish this morning on the development of precipitation for the state this weekend but no mention of "tropical" development at this time.

We sure could use a break from the Western Sizzler Ridge that has been baking us for 2-3 weeks. :roll:

Maybe JB will elaborate tonight on Talkin' Tropics about this system as he seems to think the western GOM after June 20th will be active.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#6 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:08 am

Well the TW in the carribean should enhance convection in the BOC also.
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Top
CHRISTY

#7 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:15 am

global models from what iam hereing are suggesting things will be quiet for a while....but then thats what we thought earlier in the season and then came ALBERTO.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#8 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:07 pm

Convection increasing in BOC and GOM this afternoon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg
0 likes   
Top
JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:
Contact JonathanBelles

#9 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:11 pm

looks like a front
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#10 Postby southerngale » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:28 pm

fact789 wrote:looks like a front


It's not a front...trust me. Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:
Contact TS Zack

#11 Postby TS Zack » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:29 pm

Its a tropical wave interacting with a cut-off upper low over South Tx.

Should bring much needed rain to La/Tx!
0 likes   
Top
JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:
Contact JonathanBelles

#12 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:30 pm

good
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Audrey2Katrina
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4252
Age: 76
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2005 10:39 pm
Location: Metaire, La.

#13 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:32 pm

We could well use the rain... and some respite from this oppressive heat! :uarrow:

A2K
0 likes   
Flossy 56 Audrey 57 Hilda 64* Betsy 65* Camille 69* Edith 71 Carmen 74 Bob 79 Danny 85 Elena 85 Juan 85 Florence 88 Andrew 92*, Opal 95, Danny 97, Georges 98*, Isidore 02, Lili 02, Ivan 04, Cindy 05*, Dennis 05, Katrina 05*, Gustav 08*, Isaac 12*, Nate 17, Barry 19, Cristobal 20, Marco, 20, Sally, 20, Zeta 20*, Claudette 21 IDA* 21 Francine *24
Top
User avatar
beachbum_al
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Age: 55
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:23 pm
Location: South Alabama Coast
Contact:
Contact beachbum_al

#14 Postby beachbum_al » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:43 pm

Can some of that rain come toward me too? It is dry, hot, and humid here.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Noah
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 541
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:41 am
Location: Sarasota FL

#15 Postby Noah » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:45 pm

What is BOC? :oops: :oops: :oops:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#16 Postby hicksta » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:46 pm

bay of campeche
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#17 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:11 pm

That TW looks like a bent over skinny woman with a messy hairdo.Beryl? :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Weatherfreak000

#18 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:52 pm

Image


Percentages are good in the BOC now..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#19 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Jun 15, 2006 3:13 pm

As others have stated, give it a few days..Although void of convection the wave is about 48-72 hours from the BOC/GOM
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Top
User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#20 Postby feederband » Thu Jun 15, 2006 3:18 pm

Noah wrote:What is BOC? :oops: :oops: :oops:



Its been awhile but I too asked this very same question...
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, CourierPR, Google [Bot], Hurricane2022, hurricane2025, Jr0d, SootyTern and 34 guests