Animated surge map for Houston/Galveston area for cat 4

[Audrey2Katrina]

No, Carla hit much lower down the coastline, near Port Lavaca? (sp?) the highest official sustained winds Galveston received were around 80 mph and the surge shown is definitely not what Carla caused. It's what the animators suggest would be he surge IF a storm of that intensity moved into that area--direct hit.

A2K

[Normandy]

^ Yea I figured.

Still, the fack the Carla produced 80mph winds in Galveston while hitting that far down the coast is phenomenal.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Some people say that the odds of a Category 5 hurricane hitting Houston are low--people like that are in denial. Last year we were so close that just 18 hours beforehand, the whole city was so convinced it was going to happen that we were running for our lives. The fact of the matter is that Houston wouldn't be here if it were not for a hurricane destroying Galveston so badly a hundred years ago that people decided to move further inland.

the odds of a Cat. 5 hitting anywhere are low. It has only happened 3 times in history to the U.S.

[Normandy]

Some people say that the odds of a Category 5 hurricane hitting Houston are low--people like that are in denial. Last year we were so close that just 18 hours beforehand, the whole city was so convinced it was going to happen that we were running for our lives. The fact of the matter is that Houston wouldn't be here if it were not for a hurricane destroying Galveston so badly a hundred years ago that people decided to move further inland.

the odds of a Cat. 5 hitting anywhere are low. It has only happened 3 times in history to the U.S.

Well duh, of course.
But, im stating Houston's chances specifically in comparison to everyone elses....some state Houston, the N Gulf Coast, etc CANT be hit by a Cat 5....and I am saying that these areas can be hit by a special storm.

[stormie_skies]

The areas from Galveston to Texas City are almost entirely inundated. (In fact there's almost none of Galveston left above water at all) IF this is truly a probable scenario, it would be quite catastrophic.

A2K

Between the multitude of bayous and the far-reaching Ship Channel, there are lots of ways for water to get inside the beltway. I often wonder how many of the people who live inside the belt but close to the Ship Channel realize just what storm surge could do to them if the worst would ever happen. I mean, I live close enough to the coast to know that if a big storm is brewin', I gotta get out of here. But a lot of people in the city think they are safe. Hope Katrina and Rita got to those people somehow...

Another thing I find terrifying about those maps ....look at how inundated all of our petrochemical industrial areas are. Between the winds and the water, just think of the chemicals and gases that could be released .... right into the water that thousands of people are stranded in. Places like Baytown would be a toxic mess (even more than they are already! ). I don't even know how it could all be cleaned up....

[Johnny]

It seems to me that if we have a cat 4 or 5 storm heading for the upper Texas coast, they seem to lose their intensity as they approach land. Hurricane Rita was a beast of a storm but nothing like she was when she was in the open gulf. I'm sure Rita had everyone puckered up and for good reason. I vacation down on the west end of Galveston at least 3 to 4 times a year (short stays) and figured I wouldn't be going down there for quite some time. Rita would of destroyed the west end of Galveston if she would of came ashore anywhere from west galveston island to Matagorda. I read every mets forecast on where Rita was going and not ONE of them expected her to come ashore east of Galveston. I still can't believe she spared Galveston with just about every forecaster bringing her in around Port O Connor to Galveston Island.

I'm telling ya, it's been a good while since the Houston/Galveston area have been rocked by a strong cane. I recieved 60+ mph sustained winds in Conroe off of Rita. Heck, that was enough for me. Sustained winds of 90 mph or better hours on end would be a nightmare.

If we have a big cane moving towards us again...trust me, you will not see the massive evacs that you saw during Rita. I think people in general would rather ride out a hurricane than get stuck on the road in southeast, Texas heat for 24 to 48 hours straight. It took some of my family 24 hours to get from La Porte to Conroe. When (not if) a big arse whoopin' cane hits, people will regret not leaving, that's for sure.

[HouTXmetro]

The areas from Galveston to Texas City are almost entirely inundated. (In fact there's almost none of Galveston left above water at all) IF this is truly a probable scenario, it would be quite catastrophic.

A2K

Between the multitude of bayous and the far-reaching Ship Channel, there are lots of ways for water to get inside the beltway. I often wonder how many of the people who live inside the belt but close to the Ship Channel realize just what storm surge could do to them if the worst would ever happen. I mean, I live close enough to the coast to know that if a big storm is brewin', I gotta get out of here. But a lot of people in the city think they are safe. Hope Katrina and Rita got to those people somehow...

Another thing I find terrifying about those maps ....look at how inundated all of our petrochemical industrial areas are. Between the winds and the water, just think of the chemicals and gases that could be released .... right into the water that thousands of people are stranded in. Places like Baytown would be a toxic mess (even more than they are already! ). I don't even know how it could all be cleaned up....

I'm afraid you are right, EVERYONE I have talked to said they WILL NOT LEAVE.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It seems to me that if we have a cat 4 or 5 storm heading for the upper Texas coast, they seem to lose their intensity as they approach land. Hurricane Rita was a beast of a storm but nothing like she was when she was in the open gulf. I'm sure Rita had everyone puckered up and for good reason. I vacation down on the west end of Galveston at least 3 to 4 times a year (short stays) and figured I wouldn't be going down there for quite some time. Rita would of destroyed the west end of Galveston if she would of came ashore anywhere from west galveston island to Matagorda. I read every mets forecast on where Rita was going and not ONE of them expected her to come ashore east of Galveston. I still can't believe she spared Galveston with just about every forecaster bringing her in around Port O Connor to Galveston Island.

I'm telling ya, it's been a good while since the Houston/Galveston area have been rocked by a strong cane. I recieved 60+ mph sustained winds in Conroe off of Rita. Heck, that was enough for me. Sustained winds of 90 mph or better hours on end would be a nightmare.

If we have a big cane moving towards us again...trust me, you will not see the massive evacs that you saw during Rita. I think people in general would rather ride out a hurricane than get stuck on the road in southeast, Texas heat for 24 to 48 hours straight. It took some of my family 24 hours to get from La Porte to Conroe. When (not if) a big arse whoopin' cane hits, people will regret not leaving, that's for sure.

yeah, we were lucky. The scary thing too is that Conroe didn't even see 60mph+ sustained winds (like you thought), in fact you guys had winds right below sustained TS force. Here is the report from the NWS:

CONROE...CXO...ASOS
2 MINUTE....290 DEGREES 38 MPH AT 1119 CDT SEP 24 2005
PEAK GUST...300 DEGREES 55 MPH AT 1119 CDT SEP 24 2005

If you were on lake conroe, however, winds were much higher (due to lower friction levels). Winds on the lake were recorded to be in the middle 50s sustained.

Also, here is the report of what other local areas saw:

HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...IAH...ASOS
2 MINUTE....340 DEGREES 45 MPH AT 0130 CDT SEP 24 2005
PEAK GUST...340 DEGREES 61 MPH AT 0129 CDT SEP 24 2005

GALVESTON...GLS...ASOS AND METAR
2 MINUTE....340 DEGREES 45 MPH AT 2042 CDT SEP 23 2005
PEAK GUST...360 DEGREES 62 MPH AT 1919 CDT SEP 23 2005
^^before electricity was lost...you likely had winds up to 5-10mph higher.^^

PLEASURE PIER (PORTS-NOAA/NOS)
2 MINUTE....313 DEGREES 47 MPH AT 0100 CDT SEP 24 2005
PEAK GUST...336 DEGREES 66 MPH AT 1000 CDT SEP 23 2005

ANGLETON...LBX...ASOS
2 MINUTE....340 DEGREES 32 MPH AT 2334 CDT SEP 23 2005
PEAK GUST...010 DEGREES 44 MPH AT 1751 CDT SEP 23 2005

Take these wind speeds and the resulting damage and imagine how much worse it would have been had Rita hit head on. Coastal areas would have seen sustained winds over 90mph and gusts to 120mph+, Houston would have seen 70-85mph sustained winds and gusts to 100-110mph, and Conroe would have seen 65-75mph sustained winds and gusts to 100mph...and this is if it had come ashore as JUST a 115-120mph Category 3. If it had been a 4, the winds would be even higher! Scary to think about...

An interesting fact about Rita, however, was that it was the first time Houston had recorded sustained TS force winds (from a tropical cyclone) since about 1989. Shows how long the city has gone without a good hit. All the TS threats since 89' have only been able to bring gusts to TS force to the city. The last time areas of Houston saw Hurricane force sustained winds was in 1983 (mostly on the SE side). This was not the case during the last active cycle though, during the years before 1950 (especially the 40s) Houston was frequently hit with TS and Hurricane force winds.

[Johnny]

Good solid info. EWG but yes, we did see sustained winds around the 60 mph mark for a bit. I live not even 5 minutes from Lake Conroe Dam so I'm sure we saw the higher winds. The reason why I say this is that we had big oak trees down in the area along with a few power poles that were layed over. The ground was very dry so these had to be winds in the 60 mph range. Transformers were blowing out all over the place. It looked like a firework show outside at 3:30 in the morning.

I remember Frank Billingsley putting up the wind forecast map if Rita came in near San Luis Pass, which she was forecasted to do at the time. I was pretty convinced that we would be seeing those winds and it was a sobering thought. It even looked like somebody slapped Frank with a serious reality check. I even documented my place with my camcorder. I was prepared to be without power for quite some time. I've been camping in Colorado and deep West, Texas a few times for a week without electricity. It wouldn't of been too much of an issue with me but my wife and my kids wouldn't of tolerated it as easy as me. Heck, my shed is loaded with lanterns, propane stoves, tables, outdoor shower, water tanks, tents etc. I was ready baby!! I'm was kind of disappointed that I didn't get to use any of it.

I got one for ya EWG...when was the last time downtown, Houston saw sustained hurricane force winds?