matts tropical weather thinking

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

matts tropical weather thinking

#1 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jun 14, 2006 3:03 pm

The western Atlantic and caribbean has no SAL? And the SAL this year is north of 15 north across the eastern Atlantic. Which stands good for a active season. Could this be that the Azores high is weakers this year? Of course I'm just looking at this one pic an really can't study the pattern right now.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html


Water vapor shows that the eastern Atlatnic is more moist...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... upper.html
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jun 14, 2006 3:11 pm

Also another weird thing is the rest of the tropics are becoming mroe faverable...With just a small tutt around 55 to 65 west north of 12 north. Which will likely brake by August to let systems through. Interest. :grrr:
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#3 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 15, 2006 5:26 pm

Looking at it today it looks like August...Also the TUTT over the eastern caribbean has only 30 knot shear max. Pretty amazing.
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#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 15, 2006 5:43 pm

Also with all this we got a pretty nice looking MLC south of the Cape verdes. I think the only thing stoping it is water temperature/Itcz is to far south.
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#5 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Jun 15, 2006 5:53 pm

You still looking for a 15 Storm season this year Matt? :wink:
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#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 15, 2006 5:56 pm

2004 had a strong cape verde season with 15 named storms. Also 2000,2001,2003 all avg around 13 to 16 named storms. But the sst's are like a little warmer then 2003 close to 2004 with a super warm loop currnet. Sal is amazing with very little of it looking more like August. I'v got to say it may go a little higher then I expected.
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#7 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jun 15, 2006 5:59 pm

I think that the SAL being a little further north may help in aiding a strong Cape Verde season
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#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 15, 2006 6:00 pm

The SAL looks Like AUGUST right now. Shear levels are at least a month ahead normal.
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#9 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 15, 2006 6:25 pm

The term "SAL" is overused by amature weather watchers like the term "farewell tour" is for Cher's career.
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#10 Postby Droop12 » Thu Jun 15, 2006 7:39 pm

I'll add to the over used words...ERC Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Everytime a hurricane weakens its not due to dry air or shear its just an ERC or so people say way to often. During the season it seems people forget that shear, dry air etc. exist.
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#11 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 15, 2006 7:47 pm

Droop12 wrote:I'll add to the over used words...ERC Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Everytime a hurricane weakens its not due to dry air or shear its just an ERC or so people say way to often. During the season it seems people forget that shear, dry air etc. exist.


I concur... with vigor.
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#12 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Thu Jun 15, 2006 7:51 pm

Droop12 wrote:I'll add to the over used words...ERC Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Everytime a hurricane weakens its not due to dry air or shear its just an ERC or so people say way to often. During the season it seems people forget that shear, dry air etc. exist.


Yes maybe its over used but if theres no dry air around and if the shear maps say that theres low shear around then chances are its going to be an ERC!
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#13 Postby Droop12 » Thu Jun 15, 2006 7:57 pm

I agree James, but most of the time thats not the case.
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#14 Postby george_r_1961 » Fri Jun 16, 2006 7:47 am

Also isnt an ERC more common in stronger storms..say at least a Cat 2?
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#15 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jun 16, 2006 8:40 am

Normally ERCs occur during major hurricane status.
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#16 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Jun 16, 2006 9:48 am

senorpepr wrote:The term "SAL" is overused by amature weather watchers like the term "farewell tour" is for Cher's career.
:jump:
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#17 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:11 pm

I made this thread to discuse the SAL and the more faverable then normal overall Atlatnic. I did not make this to have fun or think about how unimportant the SAL is. We all know if the sal is to the north like it is its more faverable for a more active season.
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#18 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:13 pm

The western Atlatnic looks to have alot of dry pockets and the eastern still looks moisted.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
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#19 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:16 pm

The overall tutt is over the eastern caribbean. With 25 to 30 knot shear. With 50 knot shear north of 18 north. Also a increase north of 15 across the central Ataltnic. While a area of low shear over the western caribbean into the gulf.

I made this thread to keep track and gain discussion into how faverable it is, or it is not...
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#20 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:18 pm

Sal has started to build over the eastern Atlantic. But the gulf and most of the caribbean/western Atlatnic looks faverable. Just a little area over the eastern caribbean that looks to be decreasing. Have to watch as it builds over the eastern Atlantic.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
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